In December of 1984, Mikhail Sergeyevich and Raisa Gorbachev paid a visit to Prime Minister and Mr. Thatcher at the Chequers Estate in Buckinghamshire. Gorbachev had previously served as chief of Agriculture, was a fast-rising Politburo member under Andropov and a favorite for the next General Secretary. The meeting was a chance for Thatcher to determine if a younger leader would take the reigns of the Soviet Union, and for Gorbachev, in his words, "to identify the interests we have in common."1
The Cold War was approaching its fifth decade and the position of the two blocs had shifted drastically. The post-war economic boom of the West had ground down in the 1970s, and its citizens were divided over the arms race, nuclear weapons, government accountability, and social changes. But even as the Soviet Union and her satellites achieved victories in technology, production, and political influence, the balance of power moved once again in the 1980s. The increase in Soviet military strength further burdened a weakening economy, and the war in Afghanistan and frustration with corruption and inequality fostered malaise and stagnation at home, just as their American opponents had endured in the wake of Viet Nam. The West, meanwhile, followed its manufacturing slump with a boon in finance and electronics, leading to a revitalized economy. The massive martial ascendency that the Soviet bloc had achieved at great cost in the late 70s and early 80s was threatened by a NATO increasingly turning to its technological advantages. As Gorbachev would later say, "We are encircled not by invincible armies, but by superior economies."2
At Chequers that December, the couples and their assistants had lunch. Afterwards, Denis took Raisa on a tour of the library, and Prime Minister Thatcher and Gorbachev sat to discuss their positions. Although Gorbachev's viewpoints espoused Party orthodoxy and stressed the need for arms control, Thatcher was impressed by his vigor, energy, and persuasiveness. "I like Mr Gorbachev. We can do business together," she later stated in a BBC interview.3 Gorbachev was passionate about addressing the arms race, and disputed the exploration of strategic defense. Thatcher considered the meeting a success, and later remarked, "I hoped that I had been talking to the next Soviet leader."4
Unfortunately, she had not.
1985
Konstantin Ustinovich Chernenko, the fifth General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, had barely been in office a year before he fell terminally ill. The collective leadership of the Soviet Union was a oligarchy of powerful figures who built strong political connections to ensure that no one man could again dominate Soviet politics. Brezhnev's long tenure as General Secretary corresponded with an inertial continuance of rule by an aging party elite, and his death was followed by the brief leadership of both Andropov and Chernenko. "How am I supposed to get anyplace with the Russians if they keep dying on me?" quipped U.S. President Reagan after Chernenko's demise. Gorbachev, the young party leader and the favorite as Chernenko's successor, was opposed by two candidates: old guard Moscow chief Viktor Vasilyevich Grishin and young rival G.V. Romanov.
Gorbachev was not yet sure if either would make a move to oppose him in the bid for leadership. The key moment would come at the Politburo meeting, where the head of the funeral commission was the next General Secretary. Although it seemed that Grishin might step aside, the Moscow Party chieftain made critical moves to ensure his ascension. Yegor Kuzmich Ligachev, a Gorbachev protégé who had organized a pro-Gorbachev faction after Andropov's death in 1984, was approached by Grishin and promised full candidacy, increased influence, and a position as both a senior leader of the Secretariat and new First Secretary of the Moscow Party Committee after Grishin vacated the post. Grishin also forged an alliance with Viktor Mikhailovich Chebrikov, head of the KGB. The change in loyalties prompted the venerable Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andrei Andreyevich Gromyko, to shift his influence behind Grishin and the continued rule of the old guard. When Chernenko's funeral came in March, it was Grishin who spoke at Lenin's mausoleum. Before the year was over, Gorbachev was dismissed from office and the influence of the young party leaders was suppressed. The old guard of the Politburo was determined to hold onto its traditional base of power for a few more crucial years, while the world changed rapidly around them.
1986
Chebrikov was deeply traditional, but also dedicated to restructuring the KGB and combating corruption. His disagreements with other senior leaders was resolved when he was found dead in his dacha, apparently as a result of difficulty with his medication. Chebrikov was replaced by Vladimir Alexandrovich Kryuchkov, who proposed a vigorous plan to improve security. This included an aggressive and secret campaign to neutralize and discredit Polish Solidarity Union leaders, and numerous measures to counteract Western and domestic influences in Eastern Europe as well as ethnic and nationalist movements at home. In April, three weeks after the bombing of a West Berlin disco, a nuclear disaster erupted at the Chernobyl Plant in the Ukrainian S.S.R. Even as the Soviet Union worked to address the damage, a shaken Politburo discussed the strategic implications of total nuclear war and changes in military strategy in any possible future conflict. The General Staff was instructed in their yearly assessment to re-evaluate more options for a swift, non-nuclear engagement with NATO, emphasizing the need for splintering the West's political will to prevent a Western nuclear first strike.
In the U.S., military reform continued with the passage of the Goldwater-Nichols Act that reorganized American military commands. Western leaders reiterated a commitment to continued conventional military build-up despite mixed public reactions and controversial scandals such as the Iran-Contra affair. Reagan, even while preaching strong anti-Soviet rhetoric in his first term, had long desired establishing a personal relationship with his counterpart to work on disarmament. His first meeting with Grishin in Geneva in the fall of 1986 was a disaster. The talks were preceded by a great amount of public posturing by each side. During the summit, Reagan pressed on human rights, nuclear disarmament, and the protection of research into strategic defensive systems. Grishin countered with accusations of Western attempts to undermine law and order in Eastern Europe and Central America, in addition to the deployment of intermediate range GLCMs and Pershings II missiles in Western Europe. The conference ended with little positive result.
1987
The oil glut continued to harm oil-producing countries, with prices as low as $10 per barrel. Not only did the faltering Soviet economy suffer, but the OPEC nations lost clout and the Iran-Iraq war continued to devastate both countries. The Politburo would not stop barter trade in oil and gas with the Eastern bloc, nor could it cut military industry or reduce food imports and implement rationing without major repercussions. The only other choice was to borrow, heavily, from the Western banks.
A second summit took place in Stockholm, and utterly failed to establish a basis for arms reduction. Grishin refused to agree to dismantling the most modern intermediate range weapons, and Reagan would not relent on the cessation of strategic defense research. The only arms limitation proponents agreed upon were dismantling of obsolete systems, while the intermediate weapons continued to be deployed throughout Europe.
In the Americas, changes developed progressively. Guyana's only post-independence president, Forbes Burnham, died in 1985 while the country was mired in economic crisis and deteriorating conditions. Vice President Desmond Hoyte's bid for election in his place was thwarted by an alliance led by the PPP and the WPA. The new Guyanan leadership moved to further centralization and nationalization of assets to offset the economic damage, and forged closer ties to Cuba, including limited military assistance. In Venezuela, Jaime Lusinchi's presidency was marked by corruption and economic turmoil, and a break with its traditional ally, the Confederation of Workers of Venezuela, led to increased social tensions. With Cuba's successful support of the MPLA government in Angola and the failure of the Esquipulas Peace Agreement in central America, Castro pushed for greater support to Guyana and liberation movements within Venezuela to preempt what was sure to be inevitable Western interference in the Americas.
1988
The year was marked by increased agitation by popular movements both East and West. Major anti-nuclear protests were held in Europe and the U.S., while Polish labor movements grew bolder in opposing the Jaruzelski government in the wake of the campaign to silence them. Suffering under hyperinflation and debt, the Polish people erupted in a series of strikes and demonstrations in Warsaw, Wroclaw, Lublin, and Bydgoszcz. The movements were met with fierce opposition from police forces and anti-terrorist troops. When shipyard workers in Gdansk and Szczecin were joined by steelworkers from Stalowa Wola, Poland's arms manufacturing was endangered. A state of emergency was declared on 23 August, and a second Marshal Law period followed. Jaruzelski, fearing that Polish troops would sympathize with the workers, appealed to the Soviet leadership. The Politburo was deeply split on the issue, but in the end agreed to a limited intervention by a combined Warsaw Pact force under General V.G. Kulikov. The main goal of the force was to get the strikers back to work and avoid bloodshed or escalation.
The intervention was strongly denounced by the West and many other nations, including China. NATO forces maintained a higher state of alert, but no action or threat of action was carried out. The main conflict came as Western legislators threatened to stop critical loans to the Soviet government. Some European nations decried the actions, pointing out that it intensified the conflict and threatened Soviet oil and gas supply to Western Europe. The Soviet leadership was caught in a constrictive dilemma. It could not back off from its intervention, as it would irreparably weaken Soviet influence in Eastern Europe. Conversely, it could not jeopardize its economic ties with the West without risking imminent economic catastrophe.
In the end, the situation slowly defused. Solidarity moved back underground and Polish strikers returned to work. The Warsaw Pact forces rapidly returned to barracks, and the flow of cash, oil, and grain continued. In the Middle East, Iran and Iraq signed a cease-fire after eight years of war. In the Americas, Nicaragua settled but northern South America smoldered. Everywhere, it seemed, the tensions brought on by hardship, inflation, and oppression simmered under the surface, waiting an event to bring them to head.
1989
In February of 1989, Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan after a decade of intervention. The Soviet soldiers returned to a nation that was splitting at the seams, weighed under with cynicism and frustration at increasing hardship and ethnic and nationalist tensions. In the U.S., former Vice President George Bush was elected to office to continue the conservative reign. Military modernization had accelerated on both sides of the Iron Curtain. That February, a major demonstration in Caracas elicited a violent repressive response from Venezuelan President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Rioting continued, and Pérez pressed for more support from the United States, including light military arms. The conflagration erupted into near civil war, with Guyanan forces and Cuban advisors rapidly infiltrating the country to support the rebels. But it was in Europe that the world's eyes soon turned, as another revolution erupted that would change everything.
A number of dissident movements had been stirring in East Germany, many using churches as meeting places since the government had reopened them. Protests had become more common, especially after the Polish movement. In June of 1989, the East German people erupted into the streets, demanding reform. The Volkspolizei sent to curtail the protests refused to use violent action, and many simply stood aside. The effects of the Berlin Spring were immediate and electric. Throughout Eastern Europe, citizens demanded reform, better wages, and freedom of movement. Trade union strikes followed in Leningrad, Sverdlovsk, and Dnipropetrovsk. Stasi agents took swift action to arrest ringleaders and disperse crowds, and KGB troops in the Soviet Union clashed with strikers and violently turned back demonstrators in the Baltic States. Soviet Army reserves activated throughout the country and frontline forces increased their readiness, though they did not participate in opposing the movements.
Western leaders roundly denounced the use of force in the Eastern bloc, and increased military readiness and diplomatic pressure to show their resolve. International media brought extensive coverage of the revolutions throughout the world, with speculation on whether there would be a military intervention or economic consequences. At an emergency NATO summit, a proposal was made to place an embargo against the Soviet Union to force talks on reform and opening international borders. The U.S. cabinet was sharply divided on a course of action. Defense Secretary Cheney advised a mobilization of reserves and reinforcement of forces in Europe to show a strong support of the revolutions, while Secretary of State Baker advised an immediate engagement with Grishin to press for an opening of the borders. In West Germany, Kohl's government came under strong pressure from the German people to take diplomatic action. The U.S. Congress authorized a Presidential Reserve Call-Up, the largest in post-war history, but no further troops were yet sent to Europe. On 28 June, a Berlin demonstration with the complicit assistance of some Volkspolizei, breached the Wall and allowed Germans to cross over the border. Soviet and East German troops used gas and bullets to deter the breakout, but affected not only East Berlins but also West Berliners who had congregated to the breach to help their countrymen. Security forces on both sides eventually brought the breach to a halt, but the West German people were in an uproar, demanding the immediate opening of the border and cessation of repressive actions.
Grishin's Defense Council secretly discussed the consequences of further actions. To back down would mean losing control of Eastern Europe, and open the Soviet Union to divisive internal pressures that could lead to the country's eventual dissolution. The alternative, enacting harsher security measures, would lead to Western sanctions and quite possibly military intervention. Either path raised the specter of near-certain economic collapse. Defense Minister Sokolov, one of the Soviet Army's most respected Marshals, was joined by Kryuchkov and others in warning that NATO military intervention was imminent and that the West would use this force to blackmail and cripple the Soviet Union. The only responsible solution would be a pre-emptive attack to destroy the capitalist armies before they mobilize. A swift military operation would throw the West off-balance and relieve the economic pressure. The defensive maneuver would be accompanied by a strong international propaganda campaign to splinter NATO into a set of competing and incongruous national objectives that would neuter the alliance, while ensuring neutral nations of the limited nature of the operation. With its alliance fractured, its armies defeated, and its populations and neutrals firmly against escalation, the United States could not consider a nuclear response and would be forced to negotiate on favorable terms.
Since the first mobilization, Soviet forces had constantly moved and adjusted their positions and readiness posture. With hostilities imminent, the Soviet Army knew it could not hide its mobilization, and so began a pattern of change over the months that would frustrate NATO forces and erode their combat readiness. At the end of July, Soviet forces moved unmistakably into preparations for offensive operations. After conferring with his security advisors, President Bush gives a televised address on Monday, July 31st, outlining the NATO case for immediate mobilization and calling on Soviet leadership to immediately withdrawal its forces from Germany. While Pope John Paul II leads a Piazza San Pietro audience of over 200,000 in prayer for peace, the armies of East and West prepare for battle from Norway to Turkey. Soviet diversionary troops infiltrate Western Europe and activate sleeper cells in preparation for sabotage, assassination, and disruptive attacks preceding the assault. Soviet Airborne troops use Aeroflot flights to coordinate deep penetration drops even as attack submarines shadow enemy naval groups with the aid of satellite guidance.
4 August 1989
At 040250ZAUG89, 3:50 AM local time, the artillery guns and rocket launchers of the Western Direction of Strategic Military Action commence fire from Lüdersdorf to Lenora. The nations of Europe and North America find themselves, once again, at war.
1. Howe, Jeffrey: 'Conflict of Loyalty'. St. Martin's 1984.
2. Address to Central Committee Conference, MAY 1986.
3. Thatcher interview with BBC's John Cole, 22 DEC 1984.
4. Thatcher, Margaret: 'The Downing Street Years'. Smithmark Pub 1995.
but anyway, i'm the second to congratulate.
You've also managed one of the first real plausible late-century WWIII backstories I've come across. 
