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Those 100% and Higher Odds

Discussion in 'Civ4 - General Discussions' started by Charles 22, Nov 10, 2006.

  1. Charles 22

    Charles 22 King

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    The patch claimed that battles that high would reflect the actual odds as opposed to rounding it down to 100% but I sure haven't found that. What's more, I haven't even seen a solitary 100% battle any more. They seem to mysteriously stop at 99.9% now.:cringe:
     
  2. Thedrin

    Thedrin Deity

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    This is what the patch claims it does (though you should have said rounding down, not up).

    This is evidence that the patch makes an accurate claim.

    Reason: The combat mechanics are such that it's not possible to actually have 100% odds of winning. All 100% odds before the patch were a result of rounding up combat odds greater that 99.95%.
     
  3. Charles 22

    Charles 22 King

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    I did say rounding down.

    I don't know where you got the idea that 99.95 was being rounded up, as I had seen plenty of them pre-patch and post-patch as well, that have been over that amount. From what I undertsand they were rounding 'down' battles with greater than 100% odds to 100%. So what this means is that not only is it not presenting the greater than 100% odds as they claimed it would, but they are also not making 100% odds a possibility. For example, if you attack with a full strength cavalry unit on a depleted .02 axeman you should get greater than 100% odds, and yet you're only getting 99.9% now. Both 100% and the proposed post-patch over 100% have been eliminated.

    edit- Oh, I'm sorry, I didn't notice your 99.5 figure and thought you said 95.5 for some reason. Yes, I can't recall seeing anything between 99.5 and 99.9, but I have seen plenty of the latter, and in fact now it seems to have replaced 100%, to say nothing of the promised over-100% that isn't there.
     
  4. Thedrin

    Thedrin Deity

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    You did. I should have said 'you should have said rounding up, not down'.

    Over 100% is never possible anywhere in anything and it was never promised.

    Within the game's battle mechanics 100% is not possible. Combat odds can approach 100% but they never reach it. It only ever appeared as a result of rounding up. In the cavalry vs. axeman example, the axeman would have a [ridiculously small] chance of winning so the odds would be less than 100%.

    Edit: And I said 99.95%. You never see this since combat odds only ever go to the first decimal point. Previously 99.90% - 99.94% odds were displayed as 99.9% while 99.95% - 99.99% odds were displayed as 100%. Now 99.90% - 99.99% odds are displayed as 99.9%.

    The reason for this change was that people would see a display of 100% and would (mistakenly, but understandably) assume that they couldn't lose. There were complaints due to the rare occasions when such a battle was lost. The patch documentation describes a display change - not a game mechanics change.
     
  5. Charles 22

    Charles 22 King

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    So what does this sound like?

    This is details from the patch:

     
  6. Thedrin

    Thedrin Deity

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    It sounds like this:

     
  7. Charles 22

    Charles 22 King

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    I notice that I put the "rounded to" portion of that statement to "rounded down to" in my head, but then it looks like they aren't rounding down when they state 99.9 as though it's the highest non-100% and over number possible (if that makes any sense). Yes, I can see the angle about people losing 100% battles, but I have also seen battles that were "over" 100%, but that was pre-2.08 and haven't seen it since (and they were very rare).
     
  8. Thedrin

    Thedrin Deity

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    There was a bug which displayed some battle odds as greater than 100%. I'm fairly certain this bug - an error in the battle odds calculator when taking account of first strikes, I believe - was removed in Warlords or a Vanilla patch.
     
  9. lbhhh

    lbhhh King

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    I've seen the game display odds of ">99.9%" (instead of rounding to 100%)quite often since the patch.
     
  10. Zebra 9

    Zebra 9 Emperor

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    I've seen the samething. Kind of neat.
     
  11. Charles 22

    Charles 22 King

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    That was part of my point, that there is no longer such a thing as 100%. Thedrin thinks they deliberately designed it that way, if I understand him correctly, because they don't want to suggest there's any such thing as a sure thing. To be more technical, there was never such thing as a sure thing before (taking Thedrin's thoughts) because though the display said 100% they never did intend for it really to be 100%, but had instead taken extremely favorable odds and rounded them 'up' to that higher percentage.
     
  12. pukii

    pukii Chieftain

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    could you please stop this unnecessary threat with so many 99999999999999s i didnt even see when i have studied for statistics test last week ?
     
  13. Barney's_Soul

    Barney's_Soul Warlord

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    SO your saying a wounded Spearman can now kill a GG full-health Tank?
     
  14. DementedAvenger

    DementedAvenger Prince

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    Yes.

    Just like it's possible to win the lottery.
     
  15. lbhhh

    lbhhh King

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    Thats exactly it.:goodjob:
     
  16. wioneo

    wioneo King

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    I saw 100.5% odds when I had a samurai staring down an archer in open land.
     
  17. drkodos

    drkodos Emperor

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    I always give it 110 percent, myself.
     
  18. Powerslave

    Powerslave Prince

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    That would be the aforementioned "P(x) > 1.0 bug".

    I got that bug once, with a Samurai, in the final vanilla patch (1.6, was it?), so I don't think they quite squashed it, even by then.

    I haven't gotten it yet in 2.08, despite several attempts to flush it out with Samurai and Cho Ko Nu.

    I really, really hope there aren't any more of those display bugs left. The game is buggy enough, as is, without the odds being displayed incorrectly. I hate when the game stops displaying tool tips (or balloon help/balloon text/popup text, as I've seen it referred to, in some forums). When is Firaxis going to fix this bug?
     
  19. Charles 22

    Charles 22 King

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    I have a quick fix for you. Well, it's worked at least once for me. Click on the map anywhere once and the balloons re-appear. I used to alt-tab out of the program when that happened, but if clicking the map does it, that is much easier.
     
  20. Barney's_Soul

    Barney's_Soul Warlord

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    I think the lottery has higher odds....if you were a wounded Spearman and you see a tank chargeing at you....how would you kill it....esp as it could simply run you over as you hold yourself?
     

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