Trade war with China?

[CavLancer]

What happens if Trump puts a 45% tariff on imports from China?

Currency manipulation is apparently ended some time back?... Is there any recourse to get back what we lost when they were manipulating their currency for decades?

I'd guess that with an addition 45% on Chinese stuff it will become more economical to manufacture in the US. Could this be the plan to bring jobs to the rust belt?

So what do you see happening if Trump does the 45%?

 

[Zkribbler]

Just as a practical matter, China will respond by imposing a 45% tariff on American goods. They could also close down plants in China which manufacture American goods. e.g. Fords, Chevrolets, etc. .Maybe they'd seize Disneylands Shanghai & Hong Kong. They could ban the sale of computers and computer components to the US [because China has a monopoly on the rare earth metals necessary to make computers, this means no new computers for the U.S.].

I don't know if this is true but I believe the WTO requires a legal finding by them of wrongdoing before it will allow tariffs to be imposed Unilateral tarries could result in worldwide sanctions.

 

[dusters]

Is this a troll thread? Why on earth Trump would do that? China is one of the biggest economies, he isn't so naive.

 

[CavLancer]

Thank you for answering the question Zkrib. I didn't know that about rare earths. I have heard that around Hawaii there is an abundance but it would be a real mess getting at the stuff. Regarding Ford etc, I'd imagine they would be closing those plants to bring production home anyway. Perhaps other free nations would follow suit, and the totalitarian government would fall. Then maybe their workers could form unions and get paid what they're worth. That could lead to the withdrawal of tariffs and western nations could better compete. What do you think?

 

[GoodSarmatian]

I'd guess that with an addition 45% on Chinese stuff it will become more economical to manufacture in the US. Could this be the plan to bring jobs to the rust belt.

Which is precisely why it won't happen. The Trump administration is still a Republican administration. If he proposes anything that costs American corporations money, he'll have "his own" party against him.

So what do you see happening if Trump does the 45%?

China could obviously retaliate in kind, but in any case they would lose more. But since it wont happen, it doesn't really matter.

 

[CavLancer]

Is this a troll thread? Why on earth Trump would do that? China is one of the biggest economies, he isn't so naive.

Dunno, it is what you make of it. Just does. He might be, again...

 

[CavLancer]

Which is precisely why it won't happen. The Trump administration is still a Republican administration. If he proposes anything that costs American corporations money, he'll have "his own" party against him.



China could obviously retaliate in kind, but in any case they would lose more. But since it wont happen, it doesn't really matter.

Yet Trump says he'll do this on day 1. Seems a priority.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Is this a troll thread? Why on earth Trump would do that? China is one of the biggest economies, he isn't so naive.

You're naive if you really believe that. The man is a buffoon who would have ended up under a bridge if not for his daddy's money. But he's also a pathological liar, so believing his promises is as naive as not believing them. You just can't win with this guy.

About rare earths: They are called rare because they were discovered and isolated pretty late. The reason China has a "monopoly" is that they flooded the market and made other mines unprofitable. If rare earth elements from China become more expensive, it will be economical again to mine them in other places.
It would result in slightly more expensive computers rather than no computers.

 

[CavLancer]

If that is the case it would result in more expensive made in America computers. More jobs is what Trump said, we'll see if he delivers. I guess its inevitable now, might as well just sit back and enjoy the show, or hate the show, whatever, for better or worse its the only show in town. .

 

[EnglishEdward]

What happens if Trump puts a 45% tariff on imports from China?

In my opinion, China would likely:

(a) put a similar tariff on its imports from the USA.
(b) try to redirect its exports to Europe and to the UK who would likely respond by imposing more modest quotas and tariffs
(c) redirect Chinese foreign investment from US securities to perhaps South and Central America and Africa
(d) divert production capability to the military
(e) put part of its work force on shorter hours (this would actually be a good thing; a more equal sharing of leisure time); and
(f) stop buying US treasury debt

If the USA limits its tariffs to reducing its deficits, this will most likely not result in a trade war. But there is a risk of uncontrolled escalation.

Currency manipulation is apparently ended some time back?...

Some people dispute that.

Is there any recourse to get back what we lost when they were manipulating their currency for decades?

For a state to try to manipulate its own currency is not a crime. Lots of states have tried it with varyng success and impact.

I very much doubt that past indirect consequential losses can in reality be recovered. I note that the USA federal state has got into the very bad
habit of financing itself by suing or threatening to sue disproportionately foreign companies e.g. Barclays, BP and Deutsche Bank etc for billions.

They will no doubt try that with China. That would be most unwise. China will simply not pay much and a trade war will be inevitable.

I'd guess that with an addition 45% on Chinese stuff it will become more economical to manufacture in the US. Could this be the plan to bring jobs to the rust belt?

Yes, but not that much and not that many jobs. It may slow down further job losses, but robotics will also have an impact.

Once an industry and its supply chain has closed down (e.g. textiles in the UK), it can take a long time to rebuild.

Let me explain. If a factory is operating but only breaking even, then a rise in the cost of imports from competitors may
be of immediate benefit to its owners and employees. But once that factory is closed and dismantled and its skilled
workforce disperses, then there are the additional costs of inestment in a new factory, training up workers and profit
margin that investors would expect to respectively recover and make before, they'd invest in re-opening a new factory.


The US may reopen a number of mines for rare earths that were closed down because the Chinese
could produce them cheaper due to both lower labour costs and less strict environmental laws.

So what do you see happening if Trump does the 45%?

I doubt that the 45% will be limited to China. This could be bad news for the UK, Europe and much of SE Asia.

 

[uppi]

What happens if Trump puts a 45% tariff on imports from China?

Currency manipulation is apparently ended some time back?... Is there any recourse to get back what we lost when they were manipulating their currency for decades?

I'd guess that with an addition 45% on Chinese stuff it will become more economical to manufacture in the US. Could this be the plan to bring jobs to the rust belt?

So what do you see happening if Trump does the 45%?

Apart from all the other retaliatory measures China might or might not take, they would simply export all their stuff to (say) the Vietnamese, who would then export it to the USA.

And even if you managed to make products manufactured in China more expensive than those manufactured in America (and for labor-intensive products 45% might not be enough), the manufacturing jobs would not come back. There is plenty of cheap labor available in the rest of the world.

 

[yung.carl.jung]

I doubt that the 45% will be limited to China. This could be bad news for the UK, Europe and much of SE Asia.

I think if the US were to do that it would mean bad news for them, if anything. Bringing back a few jobs is never worth the repercussions of a trade war with China, loss of investment from the UK and Europe and other negative effects. I think Europe and China could stomach it, if anything it'd improve their trade between each other.

Apart from all the other retaliatory measures China might or might not take, they would simply export all their stuff to (say) the Vietnamese, who would then export it to the USA.

And even if you managed to make products manufactured in China more expensive than those manufactured in America (and for labor-intensive products 45% might not be enough), the manufacturing jobs would not come back. There is plenty of cheap labor available in the rest of the world.

Also a very solid argument.

 

[CavLancer]

In my opinion, China would likely:

(a) put a similar tariff on its imports from the USA.
(b) try to redirect its exports to Europe and to the UK who would likely respond by imposing more modest quotas and tariffs
(c) redirect Chinese foreign investment from US securities to perhaps South and Central America and Africa
(d) divert production capability to the military
(e) put part of its work force on shorter hours (this would actually be a good thing; a more equal sharing of leisure time); and
(f) stop buying US treasury debt

If the USA limits its tariffs to reducing its deficits, this will most likely not result in a trade war. But there is a risk of uncontrolled escalation.




Some people dispute that.




For a state to try to manipulate its own currency is not a crime. Lots of states have tried it with varyng success and impact.

I very much doubt that past indirect consequential losses can in reality be recovered. I note that the USA federal state has got into the very bad
habit of financing itself by suing or threatening to sue disproportionately foreign companies e.g. Barclays, BP and Deutsche Bank etc for billions.

They will no doubt try that with China. That would be most unwise. China will simply not pay much and a trade war will be inevitable.




Yes, but not that much and not that many jobs. It may slow down further job losses, but robotics will also have an impact.

Once an industry and its supply chain has closed down (e.g. textiles in the UK), it can take a long time to rebuild.

Let me explain. If a factory is operating but only breaking even, then a rise in the cost of imports from competitors may
be of immediate benefit to its owners and employees. But once that factory is closed and dismantled and its skilled
workforce disperses, then there are the additional costs of inestment in a new factory, training up workers and profit
margin that investors would expect to respectively recover and make before, they'd invest in re-opening a new factory.


The US may reopen a number of mines for rare earths that were closed down because the Chinese
could produce them cheaper due to both lower labour costs and less strict environmental laws.




I doubt that the 45% will be limited to China. This could be bad news for the UK, Europe and much of SE Asia.

That is one impressive post!

After WW2 the US manufactured everything, now China does. We mostly export the USD, and that can't go on forever no matter what. So, some sort of hard medicine is required. Whatever it takes the jobs must come back. Sure robotics will take a bigger share than ever before, but if you do a youtube search 'China factory' you will see lots of Chinese workers doing tasks that robots can't do. Plus someone has to maintain the robots... Get those folks who are now on assistance jobs and make them productive taxpayers again and I believe that the US can start paying its bills.

Yes, the litigation society is now suing outside the US? One place to find factory workers would be to remove the incentives to become a lawyer. One reason I left the US is that I finally had something to lose. Someone slips on the sidewalk because some ice forms between shoveling and its your fault as a homeowner, and they can ruin your life. Only if you have nothing to lose or so much you have lawyers on staff can you afford to take risks in the US. Here in the Philippines I've not heard of a single person getting embroiled in the legal system until they have nothing left to take. Then of course they attach your wages... Also, you don't even have to miss that bit of ice forming or make a mistake at all. Saw a video of a woman bringing a water bottle into a supermarket, dumping it on the floor and pretending to slip. If the supermarket hadn't put in cameras to try to defend themselves that lady could have won a settlement in court. Its insane, and getting the hell out while you still can is a viable option. So, business has that added cost of coming back to the US, defending from lawyers. From the most productive country in the world to this mess, and we built up a new adversary, a new totalitarian threat, oppressor of their own people. Anyone who thinks there's some all encompassing NWO group guiding everything just has to look at the mess we've made of our American dream to see that there is no guiding hand, just a flushing sound.

Sorry, got off on lawyers.

I hope Chinese workers put out of work would make a political statement, seek better condition, workers rights, freedoms. As a democracy...well if workers there get what they deserve then maybe our workers would be able to compete without tariffs.

Yes we lost textiles in the US and correct me if I'm wrong but a lot of that went to India. India is a democracy and the workers benefit from this production. Eventually their wages will rise until industrial nations become competitive again, yes?

Opening old mines, rebuilding and training workers, putting free people back to work, even if its alongside machines, making things other than friggin paperwork and hassles. Selling goods... having jobs instead of handouts...scuse me I'm having a utopian dream. Gimme a sec...


Back in the day we didn't worry so much about the feelings of totalitarian states. Only since we made them rich through sending away our manufacturing have they become someone to be worried about what they do with our money. Seems its hard to get Chinese workers to pay taxes in the US. The US exported its manufacturing tax base. Also, the way people look at things is different. All the nasty BS one sees daily in forums like this, or comments on videos, people have changed. Ethics have gone out of fashion. If people go back to work I hope we can turn this around too. Productive people take more pride in what they do and say, and they didn't need to be forced to fulfill their obligations. This time we'll do it right, for all the nation's racial groups. I hope so anyway. It used to be such a great country to be white in. Now it can be a great country to be free in. Just need to bring back opportunity.

If the US starts going back to work then other free countries might emulate it. I would love to see democracies make a new international law of freedom, no trade with totalitarian states. You would see democracy flourish, free peoples return to work, and the nations coffers refill. That would be cool. It would take a lot of work.

 

[Zkribbler]

...It would result in slightly more expensive computers rather than no computers.

Thanks for the correction, Good Sam.

 

[yung.carl.jung]

Anyone who thinks there's some all encompassing NWO group guiding everything just has to look at the mess we've made of our American dream to see that there is no guiding hand, just a flushing sound.
Sorry, got off on lawyers.
Opening old mines, rebuilding and training workers, putting free people back to work, even if its alongside machines, making things other than friggin paperwork and hassles. Selling goods... Having jobs instead of handouts...scuse me I'm having a utopian dream. Gimme a sec...
Back in the day we didn't worry so much about the feelings of totalitarian states.

It used to be such a great country to be white in.

If your posts get anymore incoherent I feel compelled to ask you if you're getting senile

 

[CavLancer]

No, not "getting". I'm at that stage where much of my once mighty mental ability has gone ahead to heaven to set up my pad, get it ready, stock the bar. What the remainder which is left behind comes up with might be termed 'holy incomprehensible', to coin a phrase.

 

[Arwon]

If the US starts going back to work

Yeah let's not get too over the top about this. The unemployment rate in the US has recovered very substantially since the financial crisis, and while participation rates have fallen from circa 2000 they're still higher than any time before 1980.

 

[CavLancer]

Sure, but half of those are working dead end jobs like McD's. Few are manufacturing stuff to sell overseas which creates a positive balance of trade. Plenty have given up searching for work. Lots are in factories which are closing and moving elsewhere.

 

[KMRblue1027]

Sure, but half of those are working dead end jobs like McD's. Few are manufacturing stuff to sell overseas which creates a positive balance of trade. Plenty have given up searching for work. Lots are in factories which are closing and moving elsewhere.

Prove that. Like an actual non-partisan source that says most the added jobs are "dead end" . The last few labor reports have shown an notable increase in wages primarily driven by a shrinking unemployed talent pool forcing companies to compensate their existing employees better.

 

[Zelig]

I don't know if this is true but I believe the WTO requires a legal finding by them of wrongdoing before it will allow tariffs to be imposed Unilateral tarries could result in worldwide sanctions.

The USA has a history of imposing illegal tariffs, it would hardly be unprecedented. Restitution via the WTO tends to take years of legal wrangling.