As far as I am concerned it boils down to:
1) The practice of incentivising testosterone suppressors needs to go. It was introduced for ideological reasons and is scientifically nonsensical.
2) It needs to be acknowledged that trans women are going to retain at least some of the physical advantages of the male phenotype, and there is no ideologically convenient drug that will change that.
3) Free and frank discussion in light of that, as to whether this advantage is sufficiently disruptive to justify exclusion of trans women from the women's event.
4) Whatever the resulting regulation is, it must be with the consent of at least a substantial majority of cis-women competitors. To be seen as fair, inclusion of those with that advantage must be accepted - not simply imposed, or operating under the pretense that there is no such advantage.
There's a difference between framing this conversation as one of "women" with male bodies entering a space and women with women's bodies existing in their own space. It's a very subtle distinction, but it is, I believe, the crux of the whole question. This is the core issue with approaching this argument from the starting point of showing male and female distribution charts. The image presented in this case is one of men - "all men" - being overlaid completely on top of all women. But this is not what is happening. We are not bringing men into women's sports, we are not bringing male bodies into women's sports. We are considering the presence of trans women's bodies within women's sports. If you wanted to demonstrate some skewing effect trans women might have on women's sports, then the comparison is not men's times and women's times, or male bodies and female bodies, but cis women's times and trans women's times, and cis women's bodies and trans women's bodies. This is not done, in part because people haven't really bothered to collect that data, but in larger part because trans women are assumed to be "scientifically male" and so comparing "all men" to "all women" is assumed to be good enough. But this serves to taint the pool from the start, as it affects the way one perceives and approaches the problem as it arises, as I noted to emzie a few pages back. If you take identical body shapes (similar height, weight, lifting, etc.) of a trans woman and a cis woman - like let's say myself and Katie Ledecky, and had both of us compete in parallel, otherwise identical universes with identical outcomes, where like her I win Olympic gold at 15, set a dozen records, and beat Olympic athletes by entire pool-lengths, etc. What happens? For Ledecky, nothing, because there's a circular reasoning to sex as a social phenomenon: Ledecky's body is that of a "biological female" so all of her physical attributes must be legitimate female attributes. If Ledecky is female, and Ledecky is 6', then women can be 6'; if Ledecky is female, and Ledecky can swim 100m in 53s, then women can swim 100m in 53 seconds. Her dominance is a testament to her skill, her hard-work, and her talent. She represents the peak of female performance. That circular reasoning applies in precisely the opposite direction for me. If I win, my body is immediately scrutinized. The inherent assumption is that my success must have come from some fundamentally male component of my body, and the logic works backwards from that telos: Sophie has won, Sophie is 6', she must have won because men (or "biological males") are more likely to be tall. If Sophie is "male" and Sophie is 6', then Sophie is 6', not because women can be 6', but because her maleness
makes her 6'. The scrutiny gets the more absurd when the reason doesn't even end up being something definite, but some abstract, purely speculative reason with no actual measured basis: Sophie has won, Sophie is a "biological male", men are stronger than women, ergo Sophie must be stronger than her competitors and that's why she won. The absurdity is double faceted: not only because the people speculating have no idea how strong I actually am or provide a metric for what "strong" even means in this context, but also because Ledecky and I squatting the same exact amount results in Ledecky's lift declared to be a normal "female" amount and mine to be a grotesque illegitimate amount, owing to its fundamentally masculine nature.
This is where the racial comparisons are especially apropos, because the logic operates in precisely the same way. It's the same logic that rests at the heart of the racist "lunch pail warrior"/"physical freak" trope that pops up so frequently in sports discourse. When a white male athlete succeeds, this is assumed to be normal and standard: his success is simply a testament to his talent, his skill, and, especially, his hard work. He is to be commended for his performance. When the black male athlete succeeds, a degree of scrutiny is applied to his blackness, and the logic, once again, proceeds backwards from there. There must be some physiological quality to his body that is the reason for his success. When the white athlete is fast, he is fast because
he is fast, but when the black athlete is fast, he is fast because
black people are fast. In many cases, the reasoning goes a step further: that the black athlete is somehow successful in spite of himself: he's lazy, but he's such a physical freak that he overcomes a lack of effort with raw talent. Again, this runs parallel to the sorts of
ad-hoc natural experiments people like to conduct comparing a pre-transition trans woman's performance in the men's category, to her performance in the woman's category. The comparison is made in service of an argument that the trans woman's success is owing to purely her body, that she wins
in spite of her effort or ability. It's the same circular logic stemming from the same base assumption: that black bodies and trans bodies are "other," that they are
allowed to compete "with us" and their success is to be regarded as an
other's success as contrasted with
our success.
Even though our white supremacist society is still extraordinarily racist in the way we regard, discuss, and scrutinize black bodies, sports nevertheless operate generally under the principle that black people are by-default to be included within the competition. It is recognized, however uncomfortable it might make some people, that "they" and "we" are of the same stuff, and that to explicitly bar them from competition on the basis of some racial quality would be cruel, inhumane, and racist. This is not something which we decided through a metaphysical contemplation of The Good. It is not self-evidently obvious that this ought to be done, to the extent that racist "scientists" to this day insist on the presence of some datum or another that definitively proves racial variance. And if you go back 100 years you can find all manner of public discourses about the essential otherness of black people and how their presence in this or another competition is to be condemned and legally prohibited in arguments that look suspiciously similar to the ones we have now about trans people. These racist arguments were overcome, not through scientific evidence of our transcendent equality in all things, but rather on the basis of
a priori moral principles and through political action. Even when groups of black athletes are definitively
shown to possess some essential, geographically-derived advantage, this doesn't necessitate a reassessment of eligibility on the basis of geographic origin or genetic makeup, because the eligibility is premised on ethical priors, not
a posteriori empirical evidence of equality.
So then when we look at the distribution charts, and consider fairness in this question, the matter is not one of comparing men and women, but one of considering broadly, the distribution of trans women and trans women's bodies within the overall women's distribution chart. This is why the framing is so important, because when you frame the argument as male charts laid over female charts, the image you come away with is the overnight materialization of an entire secondary hump on an otherwise clean standard distribution, when the reality would probably be, given our tiny population, the significant overlap in male and female physiology, and the random variance in trans women's bodies, a virtually unchanged distribution. Having set aside that image, the next bogeyman image summoned is usually to posit that the thin wedge at the end of the curve where elite athletes are represented would be roughly the same but singularly occupied by trans women. But even were that so (and remember we have no examples of trans women overwhelmingly crowding out a sport, and only a handful of successful trans athletes whose success is always assumed - but never definitively proven - to be owing to some vague quality of her "male" body), I don't see how this would in reality be any different than looking at the thin wedge of height distribution in women's basketball and seeing an almost singular representation of 6'+ women (another statistical anomaly), or looking at a curve for women's swimming and seeing an almost singular representation of American, Australian, and Western European women. If trans women's bodies were, truly, an abomination that bestowed supernatural X-Men style mutant powers that relegated cis women to a separate hump way down on the 1st quartile of the curve, or carved out a demonstrable blip for themselves in the 10th decile or something, then I could see a point. But I have never seen that shown to be the case, only vague speculation on the basis of men's bodies. And if you understand trans women to be biological women possessing women's bodies, then most of these arguments become patently absurd, and begin to read like 19th century anthropologists whipping out the calipers in order to ascribe Irish drunkenness and indolence to their supposedly recessed brow ridges.
4) Whatever the resulting regulation is, it must be with the consent of at least a substantial majority of cis-women competitors. To be seen as fair, inclusion of those with that advantage must be accepted - not simply imposed, or operating under the pretense that there is no such advantage.
To return again to racial segregation, were we to make the argument that integration could only come with the consent of a "substantial majority" of white athletes, and that an imposed inclusion would constitute an inherent perception of unfairness that would destroy the sport, we would, in all likelihood, still live in a deeply, explicitly segregated society. Integration in sports happened in the first part by individuals who insisted on inclusion over and above the loud, violent and overwhelming objections of deeply racist white spectators and athletes, and in the second part by explicit court orders mandating equal access and fair treatment, again often in the face of extreme violence, abuse, and attempts at technically legal, surreptitious
de facto exclusion. To reiterate, the arguments for inclusion and fair treatment ought to, and in the case of racial integration, very explicitly do - come from
a priori ethical principles, not
a posteriori empirical data or the court of public opinion.