Trump Indicted!

[Gori the Grey]

Given that Donald Trump got more or less the same number of votes as in 2020

2.5 million more is significant, in my mind.

Absurdly and maddeningly, the worse he acts, the better he does.

His crappy presidency, esp. management of Covid: more votes in 2020 than 2016.
Try to subvert an election, steal classified documents and store them in a bathroom: more votes in 2024 than 2020.

2.5 million people waited for him to be somehow even worse than he had been as president to be drawn out to vote for him.

Send followers to attack the Capitol? now that's someone I can get behind.
Sure he boasted about grabbing women by the p*****, but I needed to see him convicted of sexual assault before he got my vote!
Ok, he "owns the libs," but until he's a convicted felon, I don't think he's presidential material.

Who are these 2.5 million who only got on board with after 1/6?

 

[Sommerswerd]

Given that Donald Trump got more or less the same number of votes as in 2020,

This is not correct. Trump got almost 3 million more votes in 2024 than in 2020. That is a substantial increase.

this is due mostly to Democrats not showing up to vote.

Well yes the Democrats had substantially less votes in 2024 than in 2020, about 6 million less. Considering that Trump got almost 3 million more, it was about a 3 million net loss for Democrats... again, a substantial difference. Biden won in 2020 getting over 6 million votes more than Trump while Hillary lost in 2016 getting about 3 million more votes than Trump. The Democrats don't have room to lose 3 million votes if they want to have any hope to win the election. Going forward, the Democrats are going to have to match that 81 million votes Biden got in 2020.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Going forward, the Democrats are going to have to match that 81 million votes Biden got in 2020.

I don't think this is necessarily true. I don't think whoever follows Trump (assuming we have another election) will turn out Trump's numbers. He appeals to people who don't like politicians, so any of the usual suspects who run won't necessarily draw his numbers, if it's a politician. If it's another celebrity, who can make the call?

 

[Takhisis]

Well yes the Democrats had substantially less votes in 2024 than in 2020, about 6 million less. Considering that Trump got almost 3 million more, it was about a 3 million net loss for Democrats... again, a substantial difference.

Wait. Wouldn't this be 9 million overall? -6 for the Democrats and +3 for Republicans?

 

[Sommerswerd]

Wait. Wouldn't this be 9 million overall? -6 for the Democrats and +3 for Republicans?

Yes 3 million less voters total, 6 million less for Democrats, 3 million more for Republicans... a 9 million vote swing in the Republicans favor.

The idea is Democrats lost 3 million votes to Republicans and 3 million to apathy/disinterest/protest.

 

[choxorn]

Who are these 2.5 million who only got on board with after 1/6?

I mean, most likely, it's that a lot of swing voters and marginal voters are barely even paying attention and just went with "gas and eggs are more expensive than the were in 2020 so I should vote against the incumbent party"

I don't think this is necessarily true. I don't think whoever follows Trump (assuming we have another election) will turn out Trump's numbers. He appeals to people who don't like politicians, so any of the usual suspects who run won't necessarily draw his numbers, if it's a politician. If it's another celebrity, who can make the call?

Turnout numbers will necessarily increase over time because the US population is increasing over time, so obviously we'll keep seeing the last election's record voter number broken.

 

[Takhisis]

Yes 3 million less voters total, 6 million less for Democrats, 3 million more for Republicans... a 9 million vote swing in the Republicans favor.

The idea is Democrats lost 3 million votes to Republicans and 3 million to apathy/disinterest/protest.

Is there any reliable way to measure this? We know that there were ~6 million votes fewer for the Democrats and ~3 million more for the Republicans, but how much of the latter is flipped Democrats and how much is new Republican voters?

 

[Samson]

Yes 3 million less voters total, 6 million less for Democrats, 3 million more for Republicans... a 9 million vote swing in the Republicans favor.

The idea is Democrats lost 3 million votes to Republicans and 3 million to apathy/disinterest/protest.

I have wondered if there is any way to know this. Was it these numbers, or did the Democrats lose 6 million to non-voting and the Republicans gain 3 million from non-voting?

 

[Sommerswerd]

I don't think this is necessarily true. I don't think whoever follows Trump (assuming we have another election) will turn out Trump's numbers. He appeals to people who don't like politicians, so any of the usual suspects who run won't necessarily draw his numbers, if it's a politician. If it's another celebrity, who can make the call?

If the Democrats don't run a celebrity... at minimum a political celebrity, like Obama, its malfeasance. Trump has exposed the formula that Obama exploited. The candidate needs to be a celebrity.

In fact... Obama showcased something that all of us have known since at least High School... Elections are a popularity contest. Democrats who want to win are going to have to drill down more on that. You (Harris) can't become more popular than a national celebrity of a decade or more in less than 200 days. AOC and Gavin Newsom (and whoever else) need to start building their profile, now... or they will lose to JD Vance.

 

[Akka]

Are my eyes getting that bad, or is there absolutely 0 yellow county in the whole map (meaning absolutely no county swing from R to D in the election) ?

Absurdly and maddeningly, the worse he acts, the better he does.

There is certainly a part of his electorate that love him doing that, but I'd bet these people were already voting from him since the beginning.
I'd chalk the changes more to people's perception of Democrats (either more willing to vote against them, or less willing to vote for them).

 

[Arakhor]

That does appear to be the joke, yes, hence the title "three-colour map".

 

[Akka]

That does appear to be the joke, yes, hence the title "three-colour map".

Doh. Shouldn't have overlooked the title.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Trump has exposed the formula that Obama exploited. The candidate needs to be a celebrity.

Which is why I roll my eyes at people who state the reason for the loss was Harris' inability to convey policy.
As if anyone cares about policy.

I mean ... people were talking about Michelle Obama as a candidate. Heck, Hillary Clinton WAS a candidate. Just because they were "the wives of". Just because they were known, and one of them was popular.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Oprah step up please.

 

[choxorn]

If the Democrats don't run a celebrity... at minimum a political celebrity, like Obama, its malfeasance. Trump has exposed the formula that Obama exploited. The candidate needs to be a celebrity.

Biden wasn't exactly a celebrity (at least not in the way Obama and Trump were) and he still beat Trump in 2020

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Biden wasn't exactly a celebrity (at least not in the way Obama and Trump were) and he still beat Trump in 2020

Biden wasn't "exciting", mundane. Which was what a lot of people wanted after 4 years of Trump and the Covid crisis. A lot of people commented about the peace and quiet in the first months of Biden's presidency.

I do think 2020 makes that the outlier in recent trends where exposure is more important than substance.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Turnout numbers will necessarily increase over time because the US population is increasing over time, so obviously we'll keep seeing the last election's record voter number broken.

Not necessarily. Number of registered voters, at least, in 2020: 168m. In 2024, 161m.

Your other point, about the cost of eggs, is actually my answer to the other set of questions I was asking. The chart that GoodEnoughforMe posted soon after the election showing that no incumbent party worldwide had won re-election in the era of inflation was a good enough explanation for me of Harris' loss.

or they will lose to JD Vance

with all of his star power!

 

[Takhisis]

Biden wasn't exactly a celebrity (at least not in the way Obama and Trump were) and he still beat Trump in 2020

He kindof was, having been vice-president for 8 years. He had name recognition and was part of the public imaginary.

 

[Canadian Bluebeer]

You said: "I could say the same thing about your opinions and what you tout as facts."

See?

But you can't say the same thing about my opinions and what I tout as facts.
Otherwise, show me

In simple words. The facts are not necessarily actual facts.
So if you (or I) make a point using a media source that turns out to be incorrect/wrong etc,
did WE lie? No.

Now, do you have that straight. Or are you just looking for an arguement?
(that's down the hall btw, this is getting hit on the head lessons)





.... (what a silly concept)

 

[JollyRoger]

Depends on the source. If you are quoting a Truth Social rant from the pres-elect, you should know you are presenting at least half a dozen lies