Trump's Chances

[onejayhawk]

Today is #200 in 2019. That seems fitting. I will leave the poll up to the end of the year.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Such polling is depressing.

 

[Cutlass]

There is a chance he will win. Also a chance he won't. Too soon to tell.

 

[Ajidica]

Not sure what to pick as I give him 50-60% chance. It all comes down to how soon we get another recession.

 

[Arwon]

Remaining president and being validly re-elected are of course slightly different questions when you're talking about a norm violating demagogue.

He's going to get re-elected though I think. The Dems will probably squander it assisted by increased voter suppression. Question then is whether he voluntarily relinquishes in 2024.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I clicked not good: 25%-45%

It is not clear that Donald Trump will stand. At his age, the possibility of a health problem is quite high.
Unless it looks like he can make the distance 75 years to 79 years, the republicans may dump him.

Suviving that = I guestimate: 3/4 chance

The democrats are unlikely to screw up agan by equally targeting all voters rather than prioritising the swing states.
Donald is unlikely to gain much support from outside his fan base which is needed to compensate for population changes..

Achieving that = I guestimate 2/5 chance

And celebrity fans are fickle, they can very easily get bored.

Avoiding that 5/6 = I guestimate 5/6 chance

So mathematically it is 3/4 x 2/5 x 5/6 which is 30/120 = 1/ = 25% of Donald Trump's re-relection.

The democratic party need merely pick a competent candidate and deputy with a broad appeal.
Their biggest dangers are complacency, and the republican party finding a better candidate.

 

[Lillefix]

80% chance I'd say. I have no faith in the democrats. They're fighting among themselves while Trump has been campaigning since he came into office. But if they can choose a new Obama and not some other person with one and a half foot in the grave then maybe.

 

[Socrates99]

Depends entirely on who his opponent is. If it's a centrist like Biden or Harris it'll be 4 more years of Donny Tiny-hands.

 

[Arwon]

And then twenty years of God Emperor Trump

 

[Narz]

80% chance I'd say. I have no faith in the democrats. They're fighting among themselves while Trump has been campaigning since he came into office. But if they can choose a new Obama and not some other person with one and a half foot in the grave then maybe.

Yeah, 20+ mostly lackluster dem candidates & one only republican with the balls to challenge Trump so far (Bill Weld). I imagine the Republican primary will be the most unbalanced in American history (or at least contemporary American history).

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Yeah, 20+ mostly lackluster dem candidates & one only republican with the balls to challenge Trump so far (Bill Weld). I imagine the Republican primary will be the most unbalanced in American history (or at least contemporary American history).

In 1984 Reagan got better than 98% of votes cast in the GOP primaries. Do you really expect D'ump to do better?

 

[Narz]

In 1984 Reagan got better than 98% of votes cast in the GOP primaries. Do you really expect D'ump to do better?

Wow. Did not know that. No, I don't, I figure he'll get around 80-90% if he's facing just one opponent. I didn't really start paying attention to politics until around 2000 when Gore got the election stolen from him.

 

[Berzerker]

I went with pick 'em, we're too far out from the primaries much less a Democrat nominee

if its Biden I'd probably stick with pick 'em but Trump could go up a category depending on how far left the Dems go.

Gore asked for a recount in counties he did well and we were treated to the spectacle of dimpled and hanging chads as reviewers sought to determine intent and the court stepped in to guarantee equal protection. Recount the entire state using the same standard.

 

[Lohrenswald]

In 1984 Reagan got better than 98% of votes cast in the GOP primaries. Do you really expect D'ump to do better?

I kinda do tbh

for the record I voted over 95 % lol

 

[Zardnaar]

Somewhere between 25-40%.

 

[Lemon Merchant]

I voted statistical certainty because I am expecting the stupidity of the American public to allow him to be elected all over again. God help us.

 

[Commodore]

Question then is whether he voluntarily relinquishes in 2024.

This makes you sound just as crazy as people who said the same about Obama.

 

[FriendlyFire]

This makes you sound just as crazy as people who said the same about Obama.

The coming recession and financial crash will put paid to Trumps second presidency.
Plus there is also Trumps health problems, with obesity and Alzheimer's (or narcissism)

Republicans might be slow learners having re-elected G.W.Bush but they cant deny reality. Nowdays you be hard pressed to find any G.W.Bush supporters. It will be the same with Trump

 

[Estebonrober]

The coming recession and financial crash will put paid to Trumps second presidency.
Plus there is also Trumps health problems, with obesity and Alzheimer's (or narcissism)

Republicans might be slow learners having re-elected G.W.Bush but they cant deny reality. Nowdays you be hard pressed to find any G.W.Bush supporters. It will be the same with Trump

I think it will actually be worse, at least GW was sort of affable?, idk the word for it. Trump is a dick, has always been a dick, there is almost no redeeming quality to him past his 30% base. I still wonder about that 14% that think he is doing a good job that isn't in that base. Is whether they have a job or not the only thing that matters about your president? Cause like quarterbacks they get way too much credit for economies and way too much blame as well.

 

[FriendlyFire]

I think it will actually be worse, at least GW was sort of affable?, idk the word for it. Trump is a dick, has always been a dick, there is almost no redeeming quality to him past his 30% base. I still wonder about that 14% that think he is doing a good job that isn't in that base. Is whether they have a job or not the only thing that matters about your president? Cause like quarterbacks they get way too much credit for economies and way too much blame as well.

Republicans have shown time and time again that they do not care about
- Truth
- Family Values / Christian virtue
- Fiscal discipline
- Corruption
- Economic management
- Starting wars

Republicans have been sold on a black white version of the world, with impossible solutions to all their problems. Trump is basically White (despite everything) and is enacting the solutions that they been told will solve their problems. Like a wall, or trade wars, or tax cuts, which will bring about MAGA. the promised land.