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Trump's Chances

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by onejayhawk, Jul 19, 2019.

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What are the Chances Trump will be Reelected

This poll will close on Dec 31, 2019 at 1:37 PM.
  1. Statistical Certainty > 95%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  2. Money in the bank - 75%-95%

    8 vote(s)
    11.8%
  3. Solid choice - 55%-75%

    19 vote(s)
    27.9%
  4. Pick 'em - 45%-55%

    19 vote(s)
    27.9%
  5. Not good - 25%-45%

    11 vote(s)
    16.2%
  6. Sucker bet - 5%-25%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  7. Not Happening <5%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  8. Glacier melt floods Washington

    2 vote(s)
    2.9%
  1. MagisterCultuum

    MagisterCultuum Great Sage

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    From my work with Habitat for Humanity, I know that when Home Depot says they will deliver "first thing in the morning," they usually mean about 4:30 pm. If you get lucky, a morning delivery may arrive before 2 pm, but never before 11:45 am. If you don't have someone there to tell them exactly where to put stuff, they will be sure to block a driveway with heavy pallets
     
  2. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Chieftain

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    Similar thing here with our equivalent.
     
  3. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    I've never even heard an offer like "first thing in the morning." In my experience you can choose "morning" and expect your stuff maybe by one o'clock or so, or "afternoon" which might well have to be rescheduled. But, yeah, if you aren't there to tell them different the stuff is guaranteed to land in the driveway.

    We've got a pretty good relationship with the manager of our local store though. We usually call early the scheduled day and get the delivery order so we have a bit narrower window to work with.
     
  4. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    We are post Labor Day. The poll indicates a Trump reelection.

    You can change your vote til the poll closes. Does anyone want to take issue with the glum resignation I sense?

    J
     
  5. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    Well Clinton got re-elected with poor approval ratings. It's possible. It heavily depends on who his opponent is.
     
  6. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Warlord

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    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  7. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    That was also when the Republicans were organized. The current Democrats are not.

    J
     
  8. Owen Glyndwr

    Owen Glyndwr La Femme Moderne

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    I actually cannot parse what this is trying to convey.
     
  9. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    In 1996 the Republicans were a fairly organized party with a coherent theme. In 2020 it appears the Democrats will be neither organized not have a coherent theme. As of right now they have neither.

    J
     
  10. Owen Glyndwr

    Owen Glyndwr La Femme Moderne

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    No, I got that. I'm just not following the logical consequent from that. The Republicans lost the presidential election in 1996, so are you saying organized party therefore defeat? or...?
     
  11. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    They're about as organized as the GoP in 2016.
     
  12. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    I'm still leaning towards Trump re-election being likely. He is the incumbent afterall, so he really should cruise to re-election easily. The fact that this is even a discussion shows how deeply weak/flawed he is as a candidate.

    In any case Trump should be heavily favoured to win re-election as the incumbent in a economic upswing. If the Democrats somehow manage to pull off a win it will be a YUGE upset and a major humiliation of the Republican party. Basically the Republicans would be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Most of the factors are in the Republican's favor this cycle. They'd have to be completely incompetent to blow it.
     
  13. rah

    rah Warlord Supporter

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    Like the Dems in 2016.
     
    Socrates99 likes this.
  14. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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  15. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Not even close, which is saying something.

    J
     
  16. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    The current poll numbers of this thread agree with you.

    To me the question is whether or not the House reverts to Republican by a significant margin, or at all. The numbers on the Senate are not encouraging for either party to gain much.

    J
     
  17. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    The Senate is also the Republican's to lose. Again, they would have to commit election malpractice to lose the Senate, especially with a looming Impeachment of their Republican President motivating people to the polls. Once again... If the Republicans lose this election on any front they have only themselves to blame. The deck is stacked heavily in their favor.
     
  18. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    I dont know, I remember donors and the establishment lining up behind Jeb! (Biden) and eventually defaulting to a less than ideal Cruz (Warren) while trying anything to tank the populist Trump (Bernie), all the while shifting eggs from one basket to another like Rubio (Harris), Christie (Beto), even trying to push an exceptionally polished token candidate like Carson (Mayor Pete). Once Trump (Bernie) won there was even support for a NeverTrump independent Evan McMullin (not sure who but maybe Shultz, Styer or Bloomberg).

    This story has played out.
     
  19. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Warlord

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    I think the key difference is that Trump was always in the lead, even if not overwhelmingly so. Bernie, not so much, at least not until the primaries begin. Then we'll see.
     
    Lexicus likes this.
  20. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    I'm sorry, you didn't just refer to Ben Carson as "exceptionally polished" didja?
     

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