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Trump's Chances

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by onejayhawk, Jul 19, 2019.

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What are the Chances Trump will be Reelected

This poll will close on Dec 31, 2019 at 1:37 PM.
  1. Statistical Certainty > 95%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  2. Money in the bank - 75%-95%

    8 vote(s)
    11.8%
  3. Solid choice - 55%-75%

    19 vote(s)
    27.9%
  4. Pick 'em - 45%-55%

    19 vote(s)
    27.9%
  5. Not good - 25%-45%

    11 vote(s)
    16.2%
  6. Sucker bet - 5%-25%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  7. Not Happening <5%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  8. Glacier melt floods Washington

    2 vote(s)
    2.9%
  1. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    Nein, Nein, Nein :nope:
     
  2. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    Some other Carson I've forgotten about? (I got literally no sleep last night so it's entirely possible that I'm overlooking something here)
     
  3. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

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    Hermain Cain.
     
    Sommerswerd likes this.
  4. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Especially so given the nearly certain pickup in Alabama. The Democrats need to knock off an incumbent just to break even.

    This is not very strong on facts.
    • Jeb had his donors, but so did Rubio, Christie and Kasich. Bill lined up an unprecedented array for Hillary.
    • It's always a mistake to call Trump a populist. He's far from one.
    • The NeverTrump candidate was Johnson, except in Utah. Johnson tripled his vote total from 2012. The NeverHillary option was Jill Stein.
    • The donors never did support either Cruz or Trump. Had they backed off Rubio a few weeks earlier, we would have had a very different primary season, and possibly a different President.
    • I won't go into comparing Ben Carson to Pete Buttigieg.

    J
     
  5. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Hawks4life

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    Not true, Trump was not “always in the lead”. I distinctly remember him being widely viewed as a joke candidate with no chance until “Mexicans are rapists and drug dealers and criminals but some I assume are good people.”

    THAT is when Trump shot up to first place in the Republican primaries and never fell from it.
     
  6. mitsho

    mitsho Deity

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    Ehem, he said that in his campaign launching speech, so you might want to rephrase that sentence.
     
  7. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Hawks4life

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    It is not true that he said that in his campaign launching speech.
     
  8. mitsho

    mitsho Deity

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  9. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    That was at the same time he was leading in the polls.

    J
     
  10. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

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    Trump was polling as the front-runner from within about a month of the "Mexicans are rapists" announcement of his candidacy (with 17%, but against a field of 17): June 16-July 14.

    Trump did shoot up in the polls after calling Mexicans rapists. And that was his campaign kick-off speech. Both cake and mitsho are correct.
     
    mitsho likes this.
  11. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    Correct
     
  12. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Hawks4life

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    He wasn’t leading at the polls (or anywhere near it) until the Mexican comment was made.
     
  13. Owen Glyndwr

    Owen Glyndwr La Femme Moderne

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    He made the Mexican comment in his speech formally declaring his candidacy.
     
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  14. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Hawks4life

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    Source ?
     
  15. Owen Glyndwr

    Owen Glyndwr La Femme Moderne

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    https://time.com/3923128/donald-trump-announcement-speech/
     
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  16. mitsho

    mitsho Deity

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    I'm reading a déjà-vu in these last few posts and just am very confused...
     
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  17. Broken_Erika

    Broken_Erika Nothing

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    Deja Moo?
     
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  18. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Because he was not running yet. He was not ahead in the polls until after he became an official candidate, which is the same time that statement was made.

    J
     
    caketastydelish likes this.

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