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Trump's Chances

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by onejayhawk, Jul 19, 2019.

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What are the Chances Trump will be Reelected

This poll will close on Dec 31, 2019 at 1:37 PM.
  1. Statistical Certainty > 95%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  2. Money in the bank - 75%-95%

    8 vote(s)
    11.8%
  3. Solid choice - 55%-75%

    19 vote(s)
    27.9%
  4. Pick 'em - 45%-55%

    19 vote(s)
    27.9%
  5. Not good - 25%-45%

    11 vote(s)
    16.2%
  6. Sucker bet - 5%-25%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  7. Not Happening <5%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  8. Glacier melt floods Washington

    2 vote(s)
    2.9%
  1. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Warlord

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    Well that was fun and productive. I wasn't being flippant, I don't know what you were talking about there and still don't.
     
  2. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Warlord

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    Ronald Reagan raised taxes what? Eight times? Could you imagine the Republican base reaction to that!?
     
  3. brennan

    brennan Argumentative Brit

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    Why would the Republican opinion on Saint Ronald require imagining? He cut taxes and saved the economy, everybody knows this.

    Spoiler :
    Debt? what debt? Debts are a Democrat thing.
     
    Estebonrober likes this.
  4. GoodSarmatian

    GoodSarmatian Blackpilled Idealist

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    Trump. Can't read Brennan's mind, but it's definitely Trump.

    Speaking as an outside observer, there were maybe ten people in the entire USA in 2007/2008 who thought "Obama couldn't be that bad". Everyone else thought he'll be a great president, mediocre or the Antichrist who'll destroy America and the world.
     
    brennan likes this.
  5. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Warlord

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    In that case, no, I don't think there is a significant portion of people who voted for him that have been dissapointed by him. The media has trotted out a few disaffected farmers and right-wingers but that's because they want the clicks; it's not at all reflective of what's actually happened. People who voted for him have not been paying attention that he hasn't delivered on basically anything but the tax cuts (and even that was not what he promised), all they care about is that he sticks it to the libs and tells it like it is. I know that sounds overly simplistic but I think that's a genuine reflection of our political reality. It's not even that a majority of the public feels this way, just the vast majority of his voters who are a minority of the public.
     
    aelf and Ziggy Stardust like this.
  6. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Firstly Did you Bother to even read your OWN LINK ?
    AlQeda attacked and destroyed US supported rebal groups and captured US weapons, While its fiance was from Saudia Arabia (no suprise there)

     
  7. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Republicans then called for tighter gun control laws to stop guns being sold to mexican drug cartels and killing US law enforcement /s
    It was a botched law enforcement operation, but an Obama White house scandal ?
     
  8. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Warlord

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    There is one mitigating factor, however: A program similar to Fast and Furious did go forward under the Bush administration in 2006 and 2007. That program, called Operation Wide Receiver, also attempted to track suspicious weapons. Allowing gun sales to go forward even when the ATF had probable cause to believe the sales were unlawful has come to be known as "gun walking."

    The two operations -- Fast and Furious and Wide Receiver -- had some similarities, and both were run out of the ATF’s Phoenix Field Division. The inspector general explored both programs in depth and found similar problems.


    https://www.politifact.com/florida/...-obama-said-fast-and-furious-began-under-bus/


    Hardly a real scandal in the scheme of things, I mean we currently have a president in which it is possible he is a Russian agent or patsy. . .

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRS_targeting_controversy

    Your weaponization of the IRS is more interesting sure, but it is also more nuanced than of course you would give it credit for. . .

    In January 2014, James Comey, who at the time was the FBI director, told Fox News that its investigation had found no evidence so far warranting the filing of federal criminal charges in connection with the controversy, as it had not found any evidence of "enemy hunting", and that the investigation continued. On October 23, 2015, the Justice Department declared that no criminal charges would be filed. On September 8, 2017, the Trump Justice Department declined to reopen the criminal investigation into Lois Lerner, a central figure in the controversy.[1]

    In late September 2017, an exhaustive report by the Treasury Department's inspector general found that from 2004 to 2013, the IRS used both conservative and liberal keywords to choose targets for further scrutiny
     
  9. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    I would be one of those ten. ;)

    Don't kid yourself. There were a lot who figured he didn't look that bad, so he would be better than McCain. They may be right about the second part.

    Hobsyoyo is right. Trump has not disappointed those that voted for him and won over a lot of the old guard conservatives. To us a New Republic phrase, separate the mannerisms from the policy. No reasonable person can think he is anything but a success economically and has almost eliminated unemployment and energy imports. His foreign policy has more controversy, but meets with conservative approval by improving nuclear nonproliferation and normalizing trade. That's a lot for a thinking conservative to like, and I have not even mentioned regulation reduction and overhauling the federal bench. His base is larger than it was in 2016 and a lot more motivated.

    J
     
  10. Berzerker

    Berzerker Warlord

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    Yes, I did read it...and I quoted it:

    I know 'the rebels' were comprised of various factions and I know some were attacked and some were allied with Al Nusra and when we discovered the most effective fighters were Al Qaeda we supported them.

    edit: btw, the Saudis and Qatar were allied with the CIA on this venture of arming the terrorists. And when the terrorists gassed people to get us to invade we blamed Assad. We covered for terrorists!
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2019
  11. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    He just is ballooning the deficit like all fake-so-called-conservatives. It's a fake boom but he doesn't care cuz it won't crash on his watch.
     
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  12. Dawgphood001

    Dawgphood001 The Professional Poster

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    :thumbsup:

     
  13. Archon_Wing

    Archon_Wing Vote for me or die

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    It's too high.

    Well >0 is too high, I'd say.
     
  14. GoodSarmatian

    GoodSarmatian Blackpilled Idealist

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    Things like this almost make me wosh for a second Trump term.
    If by some miracle Bernie gets elected in 2020 and the economy crashes one year into his term conservatives will say "See? I told you socialism is bad".
    I don't want to sound like a mad accelerationist, but maybe it would be better if that happens during a second Trump presidency,
     
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  15. Commodore

    Commodore Technology of Peace

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    Scandal doesn't require one to be guilty of what people accuse them of, just that an accusation be made, appear credible, and gain a significant amount of attention.

    That means there has not been a single administration from any government that has ever existed in the entirety of human civilization that has been without at least one scandal.
     
  16. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Warlord

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    Oh well under that definition. . . lol
     
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  17. Ziggy Stardust

    Ziggy Stardust New Englander

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    It is indeed true that Trump is seen as the Messiah by those people. They believe he single-handedly fixed the economy, fixed unemployement and energy imports. They may even still believe the Mexicans will pay for the wall. No reasonable person can think otherwise.

    Fact of the matter is, the economy has been in an upswing for 10 years, which made it able to stomach Trump's fumbling.

    As Trump himself said about his supporters: When you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the metaphorical *****. They will believe anything.

    The double standard from Republicans is staggering isn't it? They needed to invent controversy when Obama was president. During Trump they have controversy a-plenty, and it doesn't even register. Those Born Again Family Values Christians are fine with a president who boasts about sexual assault. They cheer him when he makes racist comments.

    Trump indeed has grabbed them by the kitten. And they indeed let him do it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2019
    Azem.Ocram and Socrates99 like this.
  18. Ziggy Stardust

    Ziggy Stardust New Englander

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    On topic ...

    I was sure Trump would be a one term president, but then I saw Biden being the favourite for Dem pick. Have the Dems learned nothing from last campaign? Did they not pick up that voters were voting against the established powers that be?

    Biden? Really? Maybe the Dems are thinking along the same lines as GoodSamaritian. Let Trump clean up Trumps mess he'll leave behind.
     
    Socrates99 and Narz like this.
  19. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    They're not in on it, they just have nothing really at stake. Trump's rule is 100% good for people like Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden.
     
  20. GoodEnoughForMe

    GoodEnoughForMe n.m.s.s.

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    I think it's about a pick 'em right now, and too early to really know or make a very good guess given how much time is left. I think there are candidates I'd place him more in the 55-60% range against (Biden, against whom a year of negative ads on his sordid history could depress turnout much like it was for Hillary) and some I'd place him more in the 48-52% or so range against (Sanders, Harris). Ajidica's post is also true, insomuch as nothing is as powerful as a recession, which, if it happens between now and the election absolutely sinks Trump and probably opens up a massive Dem win. I did an electoral map prediction the other day and when I really made my best educated guess based on polling, ended up with a 270-268 victory for Trump, with about a 3+ million vote popular "win" for the Dem. However, 6 states are really going to decide this thing, and I can't really say for sure where places like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, etc. are going to go. There's too much time left for a campaign blunder, an economic hitch, etc., etc. But the states that will decide it are all polling in places that suggest the election is around a coin flip. That says more about Trump that anyone else, given he's the incumbent.
     

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