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Trump's Chances

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by onejayhawk, Jul 19, 2019.

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What are the Chances Trump will be Reelected

This poll will close on Dec 31, 2019 at 1:37 PM.
  1. Statistical Certainty > 95%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  2. Money in the bank - 75%-95%

    8 vote(s)
    11.8%
  3. Solid choice - 55%-75%

    19 vote(s)
    27.9%
  4. Pick 'em - 45%-55%

    19 vote(s)
    27.9%
  5. Not good - 25%-45%

    11 vote(s)
    16.2%
  6. Sucker bet - 5%-25%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  7. Not Happening <5%

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  8. Glacier melt floods Washington

    2 vote(s)
    2.9%
  1. PhroX

    PhroX Chieftain

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    From across the pond, the next US election looks like it's the Democrat's to lose....and that they're doing their level best to do so....Biden? Really?
     
    danjuno, Socrates99 and Narz like this.
  2. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

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    The last time an eligible incumbent lost a presidential election was George H.W. Bush, in the early 1990's.

    Given the weak nature of the Democratic candidates, I don't see the trend changing for any reason other than Trump having health issues or stepping down voluntarily (and does anybody here give the latter credible odds?). Picking options below 50% in the poll implies unjustified optimism or pessimism, depending on how you feel about Trump. It would break a multi-decade trend in a scenario where there's no clear reason to expect it.

    Numerous mostly-left posters here would assert that USA did in fact throw people in concentration camps under the Obama administration, routinely.

    And depending on how one defines/associates the term "concentration camp", that is true. Also true before and after Obama's presidency mind you, but still true during it.

    It'd be nice if that were true and at least one party wasn't rife with proven liars. Not happening given USA's voting rules unfortunately.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2019
    Tristan_C likes this.
  3. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    I've had the same thoughts. It sucks that that could be a very likely outcome. Trump's mangled the economy in much the same way Dubya did and it's floating on a balloon. Trump supporters in 2020 are touting the same numbers they called fake or rigged in 2016. The amnesia is amazing.
     
    danjuno likes this.
  4. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    In fairness, that isn't exactly true. "The American Public" chose Hillary over Trump by a margin of almost 3 million. Include those who were systematically oppressed from voting (such as people who are in jail) and she'd have won by even more.

    I would define our voting system as "stupidity" but the majority of Americans actually voted for Hillary.
     
  5. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Warlord

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    Thing is. . . It doesn't even matter if it did happen on Trump's watch, they'll still blame the next democrat.
     
    Socrates99 likes this.
  6. rah

    rah Warlord Supporter

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    When the rules are changed then you can declare the winner on popular vote. But until then, she lost. Considering how many less populous states you need to change that, don't expect it to happen during your lifetime.
     
  7. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    Just because things are a certain way doesn't mean you can't fight for them to be the way you would prefer.
     
  8. rah

    rah Warlord Supporter

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    Nothing says you can't. And I think people should. But for now, just saying, it's quite futile.
     
  9. GoodSarmatian

    GoodSarmatian Blackpilled Idealist

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    The usual suspects will, but I have to hope there re some people who can still be classified as "on the fence". The so called centrist who mostly break conservative.
    The 2008 recession started at the end of Bush's term and the hacks could blame Obama. If the next crash starts in 2021 fewer people will be able to still blame the Democrat who comes to power in 2024.
    Doesn't mean it will play out this way. By then the entire judiciary might consist of right-wing lunatics, even Fox will admit that the concentration camps are concentration camps and genocide will not be a dirty word any more.
     
  10. Commodore

    Commodore Technology of Peace

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    People in jail are not "oppressed". They committed a crime and the punishment for that crime is the temporary suspension of their rights by means of incarceration. There is nothing unreasonable or oppressive about that. Now I'm all for restoring voting rights once someone has been released from prison, but allowing them to vote while in prison is something I just can't support.
     
  11. Cloud_Strife

    Cloud_Strife Warlord

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    The DNC is desperate to repeat the mistakes of 2016 by electing yet another neoliberal moderate, in a futile bid to win votes over from the GOP.

    The core base of the GOP are natavists, racists, evangelicals, culture warriors and more, the DNC shouldn't pander to any of those groups especially when the demographics are on their side.
     
  12. Commodore

    Commodore Technology of Peace

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    It's not the DNC though. Look at the polling numbers. Those neoliberal moderates you hate so much are polling the highest. And why is that? Because they appeal to the broadest base. Meanwhile, the far left candidates are all polling in the single digits and most probably won't even make it to the primaries and the ones that do will probably bow out after Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Face it, you aren't going to get a politician that represents you because you are in an extreme minority of radicals. The DNC would be foolish to pander to people like you because they aren't going to win elections by doing so, and they can't do the things they want to do if they don't win elections.
     
    Old Hippy likes this.
  13. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    Sorry to break your bubble but Sanders is 2nd with ~15% currently, and depending on what you mean by far left Warren is tied with him. Unless things change decisively they're not going anywhere until at least super tuesday.
     
    Socrates99 likes this.
  14. Cloud_Strife

    Cloud_Strife Warlord

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    If you think the Democrats are far left, then you'll be aghast at how they're considered moderate right in other countries.
     
    Socrates99 likes this.
  15. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

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    I do find our prison system suspect for numerous reasons. Not just civil asset forfeiture, but also the staggering numbers per capita and revolving doors back in. I wouldn't claim that all prisoners are oppressed because they're not, but the dubious numbers do at least suggest that some people are, especially those with long sentences via victimless crimes.
     
  16. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
    The two lefties are both polling 15% in aggregate polling. Bernie has the most individual donors, the most volunteers. Democrats who poo poo Medicare for all consistently get booed. Where are you getting your news?
     
    brennan likes this.
  17. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    Socrates99 likes this.
  18. Commodore

    Commodore Technology of Peace

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    Given the labor dispute Sanders is in with his campaign staff right now, I'd say he qualifies as one of those moderates Cloud seems to hate so much. It also proves that he's just saying whatever he thinks will get him elected and doesn't really plan on following through with any of it if he gets elected.
     
  19. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    They found out salary workers were putting in OT that put their pay under his ideal min wage. His campaign moved to correct it by reducing OT. Like most criticisms of him the "dispute" is a fabricated controversy once brought to attention he took actions to correct.
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  20. rah

    rah Warlord Supporter

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    Quick question. Even if they do repeat the mistakes of 2016 by electing yet another neoliberal moderate, will you vote for them, or sit out?
     

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