UK Politics VI - Will Britain Steir to Karmer Waters?

[EnglishEdward]

You are changing the subject from concerns to baseless concerns.

I take the view that concerns about excessive net migration are as much bottom up as top down.

 

[Lexicus]

I doubt that concerns about excessive net migration only exist because of government propaganda.

Very true, the English do not need to be told to be racist by their government.

 

[Gorbles]

You are changing the subject

Still ironic.

from concerns to baseless concerns

No, they're not, because you and everyone arguing however obtusely about immigration as some kind of negative (however "theoretical") never clarify what you actually mean by real concerns, and what you mean by baseless concerns.

Why is that?

 

[Yeekim]

Still ironic.

No, they're not, because you and everyone arguing however obtusely about immigration as some kind of negative (however "theoretical") never clarify what you actually mean by real concerns, and what you mean by baseless concerns.

Why is that?

Denmark seems to be one of the few Western countries where effects of immigration are closely studied.
For instance, there is an official government report Immigrants’ net contribution to the public finances in 2018.

You can see English summary here:

The Effects of Immigration in Denmark

First, I briefly summarize statistics on the fiscal impact of immigration in Denmark, taken from an official government report.

inquisitivebird.xyz

I think this illustrates some of the real concerns.

The report finds that the total net contribution in 2018 by native Danish people was +41 billion DKK. The contribution of immigrants and their descendants was net negative at -24 billion DKK (Table b). However, net contribution was highly heterogenous by group

Statistics on violent crime:

Thus immigrants and descendants are overrepresented in violent crime convictions, being 14% of the population and constituting 29% of the violent crime convictions. This translates into immigrants and descendants having 2.5 times higher conviction rates than natives.

However, like financial contributions, convictions also exhibit great heterogeneity. Western immigrants and descendants were 5.0% of the population and accounted for just 3.8% of the nation’s violent crime convictions. Non-Western immigrants and descendants were 8.9% of the population and accounted for 25.4% of the nation’s violent crime convictions.

Is similar info available for UK, I wonder? And if not, why is that?

 

[Gorbles]

I think this illustrates some of the real concerns.

In Denmark. So again, not relevant to the UK.

We would also want studies that take into account barriers minorities face in society. The analysis you posted doesn't seem to be interested in that at all.

 

[Yeekim]

In Denmark. So again, not relevant to the UK.

You're welcome to provide statistics on UK. I could not find anything comparable. Which is an issue in itself.

We would also want studies that take into account barriers minorities face in society. The analysis you posted doesn't seem to be interested in that at all.

For anyone with half a brain, it should be obvious that non-Western immigrants being overrepresented in Danish crime statistics is directly related to barriers they face in society... with the barriers being both objective (lower education, lack of language skills, lack of social network, possible past traumas from conflict zones etc) and subjective (differences in social norms and traditions and related friction). It is obviously not genetic - to state what should be friggin' obvious.

And so? How much money and effort and time would be required to overcome those barriers? Would it really the best use of resources and could it change the net balance of the calculation?

 

[EnglishEdward]

Is similar info available for UK, I wonder?

I do not believe it is. From time to time, pro-immigration interests have argued that immigration is a net financial positive.
Thing is people put in during their working lives (20 to 65) but take out during childhood (0-20) and retirement (60 up).
So by comparing taxes paid and benefits received by largely working age immigrants against the overall population one can
obtain a false positive which ignores the fact that immigrants will have children and will retire. And then there is the impact of
Russian oligarchs transferring looted wealth into the UK. It is money in, but if it just inflates things what sort of net benefit is it?

And if not, why is that?

I guess for the same reason they never counted the number of EU migrants before the vote. Didn't want an answer voters might not like.

 

[Gorbles]

You're welcome to provide statistics on UK. I could not find anything comparable. Which is an issue in itself.

It's an issue for those claiming there is an issue, that we can agree on.

For anyone with half a brain, it should be obvious that non-Western immigrants being overrepresented in Danish crime statistics is directly related to barriers they face in society

And yet, according to the opinions of both some forums posters and others in society, it isn't obvious. I trust you're not suggesting forum posters, even ones I or you might disagree with, have half a brain.

And so? How much money and effort and time would be required to overcome those barriers? Would it really the best use of resources and could it change the net balance of the calculation?

Not questions I can answer. But assuming a country where this is a problem, presumably if you care at all about said crime rate that you went and found statistics about it to post online, I'd assume that you'd at least want to try.

 

[Kyriakos]

It seems that knife crime has risen nearly 80% since 2015 in the UK.

Southport stabbing: Why are knife crimes on the rise in the UK?

The Southport stabbing incident has stunned the UK, at a time when knife crimes have been surging in the country.

www.aljazeera.com

I attribute this to many things, most particularly a shortage of guns.

Imo better knife crime than the trend of using sulfuric acid on people's faces (sometimes just to steal their moped)

As for UK, yes, it has become more racist in recent years, but elsewhere in Europe countries actively block virtually any non-white from emigrating there. UK still isn't as racist as central or baltic Europe.

 

[Yeekim]

And yet, according to the opinions of both some forums posters and others in society, it isn't obvious.

They're mistaken then.

Not questions I can answer. But assuming a country where this is a problem, presumably if you care at all about said crime rate that you went and found statistics about it to post online, I'd assume that you'd at least want to try.

I am pleased you are supportive of making efforts to address concerns you very recently seemed unwilling to accept could even be real. That's quite a progress.

Why do you think the Danes have not tried though? Do you really think the net negative contribution of immigrant groups cited in the report represents direct damage from vandalism or something, as if they were some invading barbarian horde? I rather assume it is largely government spending on education, counseling, direct financial support etc.

 

[Gorbles]

I am pleased you are supportive of making efforts to address concerns you very recently seemed unwilling to accept could even be real.

I'm not. Your example was Denmark, I was answering given that context. You see, the point here is twofold. Firstly, the burden is on the person making the claim to evidence it. I've been consistent on that throughout.

You have made several claims about the UK, and evidenced none of them.

The second is that of basic causality. If economic circumstance and barriers to things like wellbeing, quality of life, and well, things like the very obvious existence of racism (please do ask me if you'd like me to evidence that for the UK) . . . then any attacks made by minorities in any disproportionate manner to their demographics size is simply a symptom. Much like how people are defending the "concerns" that these riots apparently suggest.

It can't be had both ways. If these "concerns" are in any way legitimate, so are the things that drive people to violent excess. No? Even if the reaction is inappropriate or outright criminal, assuming the justice system itself is being applied fairly, etc, et al.

 

[Yeekim]

You have made several claims about the UK, and evidenced none of them.

What claims I have made you feel require evidence?

The second is that of basic causality. If economic circumstance and barriers to things like wellbeing, quality of life, and well, things like the very obvious existence of racism (please do ask me if you'd like me to evidence that for the UK) . . . then any attacks made by minorities in any disproportionate manner to their demographics size is simply a symptom. Much like how people are defending the "concerns" that these riots apparently suggest.

It can't be had both ways. If these "concerns" are in any way legitimate, so are the things that drive people to violent excess. No? Even if the reaction is inappropriate or outright criminal, assuming the justice system itself is being applied fairly, etc, et al.

This is indeed very basic causality.
Is there supposed to be a contradiction with anything I've said? Because I don't see it.

 

[Gorbles]

What claims I have made you feel require evidence?

I think you're perfectly capable of reading back yourself, moreso given that I've explicitly called them out. If you want good faith discussion, you need to make the effort, no? Especially given the claims you made are the ones that caused me to reply to you in the first place.

This is indeed very basic causality.
Is there supposed to be a contradiction with anything I've said? Because I don't see it.

You're the one telling me Danish statistics "illustrate some of the real concerns". Can you explicitly state what you think these concerns are? And how you can evidence them for the UK?

Or are we going to keep going around in circles as you allude to "concerns" without saying what they are or who are at fault (despite repeatedly pointing at immigration).

Genuinely, if you can't find UK statistics, that doesn't mean that there is a problem. It could mean that we're simply not tracking it because it's not an issue. Or because the real data doesn't support the previous government's allusions and demonising of immigrants. There are many explanations that range from "not a problem" to "hiding a problem".

But this is exactly why claims require evidence. If you can't find any, you need to question the assumptions that lead you to believe this about the UK in the first place. Or do you not?

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

And if not, why is that?

Nordic countries, I would say, tend to pride themselves in their public goods and services being made available to those who are more or less integrated. I imagine other countries may do this, too (the US does not have clear [national] stats of this, at least). So they would of course report on whether those immigrants they allow in are committing crimes or not. Whether any policy changes come out if it, I don't know, not from there...

 

[HNation]

For what it's worth, here is the percentage of ethnically Irish people by county in Ireland from 1971-2022. The foreign-origin percentage of the population quadrupled in two decades, it's perfectly understandable that we want immigration vastly reduced if not stopped altogether.

 

[danjuno]

Ireland has yet to recover the population level from before the Great Famine, and too many people is the problem?

 

[Samson]

Again we see the priorities of the state. The greenies got 5 years for a zoom call, so far the facists have got:

• 3 years for punching a rozzer in the face
• 30 months for torching a jam sandwich
• 20 months for "violent disorder" (throwing rocks and bricks at the rozzers while "very drunk" I think)

WRT Ireland, here are a couple of graphs that describe the population movement. I think it illustrates the issue, it is not clear how these numbers are causaly related but a simple analysis would indicate that positive migration is good and negative migration is bad. A lot of people voted for pro-immigration parties there so it seems that most people understand this. Why some people do not is the big question.

Spoiler Some graphs :

Ireland GDP

 

[Yeekim]

So then why keep importing them to Denmark? It doesn't really matter why they are overrepresented in crime statistics, all that mattered is that mass migration lowers the quality of life for the people already there, and, as someone who believes in self-determination for all people, if Europeans say "we don't want mass migration that will make us a minority in our own indigenous homelands", then their governments should listen to them.

Well, yes.
The most problematic ones are not exactly being "imported", but rather turn up by themselves, at which point the receiving country is in practice stuck with them.

Alternatives tend to be very ugly.

Greek coastguard threw migrants overboard to their deaths, witnesses say

More than 40 people are alleged to have died as a result of Greek coastguard actions, BBC analysis reveals.

www.google.com

That is why failure of Rwanda Scheme is a disappointment. Maybe the EU could lease few of those ghost town Chinese real estate boom reportedly left behind for similar purposes.

 

[Samson]

That is why failure of Rwanda Scheme is a disappointment. Maybe the EU could lease few of those ghost town Chinese real estate boom reportedly left behind for similar purposes.

You are proposing sending those claiming asylum under the 1951 Refugee Convention to China?

 

[Gorbles]

For what it's worth, here is the percentage of ethnically Irish people by county in Ireland from 1971-2022. The foreign-origin percentage of the population quadrupled in two decades, it's perfectly understandable that we want immigration vastly reduced if not stopped altogether.

You use "we" when you mean "I".

The most problematic ones are not exactly being "imported", but rather turn up by themselves, at which point the receiving country is in practice stuck with them.

Oof. So we're back to scapegoating asylum seekers and refugees? I thought it was obvious to anyone with half a brain that the problems were the barriers faced in society?

And again, notably, no answers to any of my direct questions.