Say, what are the odds of Labour outright collapsing and calling an early election, or at least kick Starmer out from the spotlight sooner rather than later and install the sidekick?
Having looked at Germany...
I am aware of the danger of wish fulfilment corrupting my own predictions.
In my opinion Labour was lucky in 2024 and it is unlikely to get as many MPs elected
if there is a general election soon, and those about 1/3 of Labour MPs now representing
former conservative constituencies are unlikely to vote to end their current tenure.
For there to be an early election, there would to my mind be two necessary prerequisites:
(a) a continuing collapse in the conservative party, so that is not a threat
and
(b) a more general economic collapse, that is something more than a recession.
What sidekick? Needs someone to have a profile built, a precipitating event and a perceived gap between Starmer and the sidekick regarding the event. I'm not sure that Labour has many tall poppies in its field right now.
The event is a bit easier to predict. With Labour's victory being mostly built on being not the Tories, an extremely bad outcome in English local elections just from being the incumbents is very plausible, and would undermine Starmer's control.
But the course of action taken by Labour rebels is going to depend the apparent threat of Tories/Reform. Events would have be be very strange to push them from just trying to replace Starmer to deliberately collapsing the government.
Bad outcomes for incumbent government parties in local elections are quite normal in the UK.
Barring fluke accidents, crazy assassination, plague or war etc etc I expect
that Sir Keir Starmer will most likely remain our Prime Minister for several years.
Oh I agree, its pretty unlikely from here. I'm just working the assumption that it will. If it were to happen, thats the most plausible route I see and the lack of replacement figure is the most significant impediment.
UK Politics VI - Will Britain Steir to Karmer Waters?
Having seen Boris stand on a podium and lecture us on television every week for two years on
lockdown while failing to manage his own office, we can survive not seeing him for a century or two.
Do you ask the same question when any other former PM is raised in the thread?
I'm not claiming anything malicious, I understand being sick of him, it's just that what our political classes get up to is often pertinent. Even in passing. Certainly more pertinent than pages of blaming the EU for alleged past behavior. Or at least, equally as pertinent given his record there
UK Politics VI - Will Britain Steir to Karmer Waters?
Having seen Boris stand on a podium and lecture us on television every week for two years on
lockdown while failing to manage his own office, we can survive not seeing him for a century or two.
I don't see what the issue is, EnglishEdward. It is part of Channel4's coverage of the US election. Like it or (obviously in your case) not, it is UK news.
Frankly the argument that since the thread is titled after Keir it should somehow only contain Keir-posts or just the current clowns in parliament, is bizarre.
Ok, yet that isn't really a reason to oppose it. Maybe if we were in a Utopia.
Imo it was funny due to its distinctive third-worldly allure, enough to be at least of transitory note.
Yes the fact that this was seen as appropriate beggars belief to me. Regardless of whether they were there on official party capacity or not, it’s not a good look to be supporting one side in a foreign election.
Yes the fact that this was seen as appropriate beggars belief to me. Regardless of whether they were there on official party capacity or not, it’s not a good look to be supporting one side in a foreign election.
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