UKIP go from strength to strength

[Quackers]

UKIP have firmly established themselves as the fourth party in British politics. Recent estimates have put UKIP far ahead of the Liberal Democrats but I'm sceptical they will beat the LDs in 2015.

Lets have a look at the polls this time four years ago:

September 2010: 2-3%
September 2014: 9-19%.

Spoiler :

Where Red = LABOUR, Blue = CONSERVATIVES, Yellow = LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, Purple = UKIP

The surge in UKIP support has been unprecedented. Farage is the public face and appeals to an Englishman's common sense and honesty. Whilst the other leaders give you a bullcrap answer, Farage is direct. He will actually give you his thoughts to a question. There is no doubt that Nigel Farage's charisma has brought about much of the success for the party.

Prior to the European election, UKIP were battered relentless by the government, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Even the typical right wing press were doing their best to harm UKIP. This smear campaign backfired spectaculaly. It strengthened UKIPs position outside the establishment, free from the scandels of benefit-gate and child abuse-gate.


UKIP have also benefitted from two defections from the Tory Party. Douglas Caswell is likely to win his seat for UKIP (their first ever); whilst Mark Reckless has a good chance but is by no means certain to win. The Conservatives are frightened and even Cameron addressed UKIP in his keynote speech: "On election night, you may go to bed with Nigel Farage and wake up with Ed Miliband". The most amusing Conservative reaction has been William Hague's. A former Tory donor, Arron Banks, switched to UKIP. He pledged £100k to the cause, Hague then called Mr Banks a nobody, Banks then raised his donation to £1m...

UKIP have also tapped into the poor, ex-labour voter pool too. They have even made attempts to court this vote in their latest conference (which was held in the North). No longer a right-wing spliter faction they are contesting in traditional Labour areas and doing well.

So, in conclusions UKIP are doing fantastic. What do you think about that?

 

[Borachio]

I do think UKIP are doing "well". They're not terribly consistent, though. First they were going to privatize the NHS, now they're going to increase its government funding.

Not that it matters, of course. The memory of the electorate is notoriously short-term.

I don't think Hague called Banks a nobody. I think he said he'd never heard of him.

Oh, and UKIP will pick up BNP's disillusioned too, don't you think?

 

[Truronian]

One issue parties never fair well in the long run. I don't expect to see them make the gains some are predicting next year, though they will probably get a bump and end up with an MP or two.

 

[GinandTonic]

ATM they are offering the moon on a stick. A moon to the right of the Tories mostly, but a moon that keeps the NHS for the old dears, and a social housing moon on a stick for the working poor. They are serious enough now they will have to produce a serious manifesto - remember the fiasco of the last one. And there is every chance they will be offered the chance to have the OBR audit it.

If they have to actually have a second policy life will become a lot more complex for them.

 

[Borachio]

Isn't this how all political parties have started out?

 

[Antilogic]

So it doesn't look like any party would have an outright majority following a general election. Is it likely that a Conservative/UKIP coalition will end up in power?

 

[Borachio]

It's far too early to say. The general election isn't till next May. Just about anything could happen.

 

[JollyRoger]

The IPB will be resurrected and take over in a matters of years, so I've heard.

 

[Borachio]

The International Peace Bureau?

BAE systems won't like that.

 

[useless]

UkIP will inevitably become a party of the protest vote, get some power, utterly muck up and basically become the right-wing version of the liberal-democrats; political pariahs.

 

[Borachio]

The liberal-democrats are political pariahs? Just centrist ones?

And why do you assume UKIP would muck it up? What qualifications do any other politicians have?

I think you're just wishful thinking, here.

 

[useless]

The liberal-democrats are political pariahs? Just centrist ones?

And why do you assume UKIP would muck it up? What qualifications do any other politicians have?

I think you're just wishful thinking, here.

Because of course, since they've joined the coalition the Liberals have gone from strength to strength Borachio! It's not like they're struggling to hold onto councils and their seats!

EU stuff is minor, completely different ballgame from being an mp, there's more scruitiny, you can't just turn up so you can collect money you actually have to do stuff and given they're making the transistion from a party sole in the eu to a party that may actually have mps i don't think it's unfair to point this out.

 

[Borachio]

I think the Liberal Democrats are in big trouble. But they've been in that for as long as I can remember. And this is the first time they've ever been near any real power. Is that what you mean by political pariahs?

As for making a transition to power, don't all nascent political parties have to do that? Haven't Labour and the Conservatives done so in the past? Why couldn't UKIP manage it? And the European experience can only have helped them, you don't think?

I don't suggest that they don't face difficulties. Just that they're not unusual or insurmountable. I wish they were.

 

[Tee Kay]

I think the Liberal Democrats are in big trouble. But they've been in that for as long as I can remember.

Worst result they've ever got so far was 17% of the vote. Now that they're more like 7% we'll see an extermination.

 

[Tahuti]

I think the Liberal Democrats are in big trouble. But they've been in that for as long as I can remember. And this is the first time they've ever been near any real power.

The British Liberal Democrats are like the Dutch D66: They are like an ideological avant-garde who set the tone for the politics of the society they live in by playing a role as a flag bearer for the ruling party in exchange for some of their policies (like gay marriage), though they pretty much suck at actually ruling. D66 pretty much nearly got extinct after they participated in the Balkenende II government. Likewise, Liberal Democrats may end up a similar fate. D66 seems to be rebounding to these days, though again like the Liberal Democrats, they don't have a support base (aside from eggheads and nauseatingly politically correct suburb dwellers) and rely completely on swing voters.

 

[Lord of Elves]

This kind of thing sours my belief in democracy. Like the Tea Party, the UKIP appeals both to a reactionary fringe and to the base prejudices and short term desires of the majority of uninitiated people. What results is political change of the worst kind.

 

[Senethro]

What are UKIPs policies this month?

 

[Tahuti]

Like the Tea Party, the UKIP appeals both to a reactionary fringe...

 

[Ajidica]

When UKIP says reactionary, they mean go back socially 50 years.
When you say reactionary, you mean take the whole thing back 200 years, and then 50 years for good measure.

 

[Lord of Elves]

Only people benefiting from the social and political change of the Industrial Revolution (or royalty, maybe) could ever look back at pre-Enlightenment Europe and say "This is what we should be doing." You're either romanticizing the life of a serf (social conditions amounting to ersatz-slavery, lack of basic amenities and sanitation, significant chance of a violent death at any given moment) or the despotism of the aristocracy (my great-great-great-grandaddy had a sharper sword than your great-great-great-grandaddy so that makes it okay for me to force you to work for me while living in a disease-ridden hovel).

But I guess you posit a world with the socioeconomic conditions of serfdom while preserving modern technology, which probably looks a great deal more like Tsarist Russia than any strictly medieval society. Not that this is a marked improvement.