Ukraine and Russia may go to war

[Gelion]

In 1962, missiles in Cuba made it possible to threaten US mainland with nuclear strike - a capability USSR had previously lacked. This is why this move was seen as a huge escalation. Today, Russia has this capability anyway (see nuclear sub fleet and ICBMs with 11-16k km range).
Stationing anything on Cuba/Venezuela would change nothing except increase costs and make those assets more vulnerable.
If it was supposed to be a threat, it is rather strange one.

Lets just say that there is a difference with regard to what type of missiles are deployed. There's a reason US is positioning their cruise missiles next to Russia. Its not about "opening a new chapter in being able to strike a target". It is about being able to strike it fast and with minimal interception threat. Thats what the US is doing and thats what Russia might start to explore more seriously.

 

[red_elk]

In 1962, missiles in Cuba made it possible to threaten US mainland with nuclear strike - a capability USSR had previously lacked. This is why this move was seen as a huge escalation. Today, Russia has this capability anyway (see nuclear sub fleet and ICBMs with 11-16k km range).
Stationing anything on Cuba/Venezuela would change nothing except increase costs and make those assets more vulnerable.
If it was supposed to be a threat, it is rather strange one.

If that was so simple there would be no reason to make SS-20 and Pershing in 1970-1980s and later sign INF treaty to regulate their deployment.
There is a big difference between ICBM and IRBM, in cost, detection capabilities and flight time.
Few hundreds of IRBM targeting your territory means you may lose good chunk of your second strike capability in mere 10 minutes. There would be no time to make decision to retaliate.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

It is much easier to intercept or destroy a missile you have perfectly localized in a tiny island in front of your coast than another one coming from a sub hidden in front of your coast which you have not idea where exactly is. So, unless Russia subs are a fiasco, placing missiles in Cuba in 2022 is the emptiest thread ever.

Anyway i doubt all Russian gas money could buy Cuba into such quagmire.

 

[Gelion]

It is much easier to intercept or destroy a missile you have perfectly localized in a tiny island in front of your coast than another one coming from a sub hidden in front of your coast which you have not idea where exactly is. So, unless Russia subs are a fiasco, placing missiles in Cuba in 2022 is the emptiest thread ever.

Anyway i doubt all Russian gas money could buy Cuba into such quagmire.

Hey look, u have tank, y u need missile? Tank good, no? [referencing logic used]

Diversification of means of delivery increases your chances of carrying out a retaliatory strike.

 

[Birdjaguar]

In response to Russia putting missiles in Cuba or anywhere else near the US, Biden should have said, "Be my guest." Everyone prefers re-fighting the "last war" rather than the next war.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Ah... just what we need, more tension.

First on CNN: US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine

Washington (CNN)The US has information that indicates Russia has prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine, a US official told CNN on Friday, in an attempt to create a pretext for an invasion.

The official said the US has evidence that the operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia's own proxy forces.
The allegation echoes a statement released by Ukraine's Ministry of Defense on Friday, which said that Russian special services are preparing provocations against Russian forces in an attempt to frame Ukraine. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan hinted at the intelligence during a briefing with reporters on Thursday.
"Our intelligence community has developed information, which has now been downgraded, that Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating the pretext for an invasion," Sullivan said on Thursday. "We saw this playbook in 2014. They are preparing this playbook again and we will have, the administration will have, further details on what we see as this potential laying of the pretext to share with the press over the course of the next 24 hours."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html

 

[red_elk]

Ok, so Ukraine is going to blow up something in Donetsk. Locals should be on high alert.

 

[Gelion]

Sounds like it is time for Ukraine to announce that they are not planning any imminent military attack against the separatists and that they are ready to start to implement domestic reforms as outlined in the Minks accords. And maybe withdraw from some neutral zone areas they have occupied since.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Ok, so Ukraine is going to blow up something in Donetsk. Locals should be on high alert.

No. Somebody will blow up something in Donetsk as a provocation to provide a pretext for more violence.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

• 13 September 1999: Russian Duma speaker Gennadiy Seleznyov made an announcement about bombing of an apartment building in the city of Volgodonsk that took place only three days later, on 16 September.
• 16 September 1999: Bombing in Volgodonsk, 18 are killed, 288 injured.
• 23 September 1999: An apartment bomb was found in the city of Ryazan. Vladimir Rushailo announced that police prevented a terrorist act. Vladimir Putin praised the vigilance of the citizens and called for the air bombing of Grozny.
• 23–24 September 1999: According to David Satter, FSB agent who planted the bomb in Ryazan were arrested by local police.[79]
• 24 September 1999: Nikolai Patrushev declared that the incident was a training exercise.
• 24 September 1999: Second Chechen War begins.

 

[red_elk]

No. Somebody will blow up something in Donetsk as a provocation to provide a pretext for more violence.

When such "Russia's false flag operation" is announced, it is very good time for Ukraine to do it.

 

[Gelion]

I think Birdjaguar did mean somebody.

 

[Gelion]

On 7 August 1999, Shamil Basayev (in association with the Saudi-born Ibn al-Khattab, Commander of the Mujahedeen) led two armies of up to 2,000 Chechen, Dagestani, Arab and international mujahideen and Wahhabist militants from Chechnya into the neighboring Russian Republic of Dagestan. This war saw the first (unconfirmed) use of aerial-delivered fuel air explosives (FAE) in mountainous areas, notably in the village of Tando. By mid-September 1999, the militants were routed from the villages they had captured and pushed back into Chechnya.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

So, since 13 sept to 24 sept there was a malfunction in the Russian matrix and announcement about bombings were made by Duma members before the very bombings, then Putin called for bombing Grozny because local police catched its own agents, who were placing explosives under Russian apartment buildings because... training.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Terrible set of events. Its like in Georgia 08.08.08 when CNN made an announcement on the attack on Georgian troops before it happened. And many others.

Announcing "erroneously" a bombing in a particular city, then a bombing in that particular city happens, then local police get a Russian secret service agent placing explosives because "training" in the middle of a wave of supposed terrorist bombings.
That is perfectly comparable with your example of bad journalism. Ok.

If you had compared it to the sinking of the Maine for instance you may have a point but now i think you are being infantile on purpose.

 

[red_elk]

... and WTC was blown up by the CIA to justify Afghanistan invasion, right.

 

[r16]

used to happen a lot in Syria . Russians would loudly claim the White Helmets were stocking chemicals to frame Damascus . Because of the famous redline of Obama regarding their use ; like America would launch 10 000 cruise missiles or something . Russians would bomb an hospital , White Helmets would rush to film it , if lucky enough Russians would bomb the same place . It would calm down for awhile after that . When the British managed guy died , there were fewer chemical scares ....

the power of Russian troops in Latin America stems not from any obviously limited military advantage that they might provide but that the American Right would love to create a crisis . American insistence on having no "foreign" troops on Americas due to their sacred Monroe Doctrine has always been funny . They were just about to have an heart attack with two lranian warships going to Venezuela because they would really have to sink them and they couldn't let lranians to exercise their actual right to sail in international waters because they would make them look bad . Sometime in mid 1980s two US Lawmakers were flying on the border of Nikaragua when their helicopter was shot at and hit by rifle fire . Out of this , their escorting AH-1 attack helicopter reported engaged by a MiG from some unidentifiable country . Out of this came Firebirds or something , an eminently forgettable movie in which US Army helicopters finally defeat a drug baron's Draken fighters . A little inspiration for Top Gun , and the Predator series . In which Arnie could not defeat the Commies , because he was busy ...

and actually it will still be such a mess when people get to discuss 9/11 without the Truthers ...

and still no love for the dudes who zapped the American diplomats before the meeting witn the Russians , so much that some spokesperson was ranting last night on Al Crusading about the Havana Syndrome ?

 

[Thorgalaeg]

... and WTC was blown up by the CIA to justify Afghanistan invasion, right.

Maybe, would not be the first time USA government does something like that but there is not a single evidence of it, so nice try. Otoh about the bombings, you have the events listed above chronologically, everybody knows them and cannot be erased. That you make of them is up to you.

 

[Verbose]

When such "Russia's false flag operation" is announced, it is very good time for Ukraine to do it.

Because Russia is going to war against Ukraine either way then...

 

[thetrooper]

Sweden boosts troops at Gotland. Chew on that. Sweden.