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Ukraine Crisis master thread

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Winner, Mar 4, 2014.

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  1. Verbose

    Verbose Deity

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    More regarding gas.

    Not unsurprinsingly serious people, with byros in the breast pockets, have been totting up the scores for European gas production, imports etc. And this is what Financial Times came up with.

    It's interesting because it gives figures — who uses how much, from where? — including inter-state flows within the EU, and domestic gas production:

    Oh, bit big — better put that in a spoiler:
    Spoiler :

    Knock yourselves out!:)
     
  2. Aleksey_aka_al

    Aleksey_aka_al Smiley

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    I am delighted to know that employees of Financial Times can draw pictures on a computer. No, seriously!
     
  3. classical_hero

    classical_hero In whom I trust

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    Australia is gas rich, we could help out the Europeans in their time of need.
     
  4. Verbose

    Verbose Deity

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    In a choice between knowledge and denial, we know what you will pick.
     
  5. Aleksey_aka_al

    Aleksey_aka_al Smiley

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    Denial? I'd listen with pleasure what deniers of the Fascist coup in Ukraine could tell me about denial! :lol:
     
  6. Oruc

    Oruc Reactionary

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    Ahh Kaiserguard is always a smart lad.
     
  7. Verbose

    Verbose Deity

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    Well, thanks a bunch!:)

    Check out the green figures, for the LNG terminals. That's where Aussie gas might potentially get plugged into the system.

    But we don't know if the EU will, or can, get even moderately radical over this. The decision needs to be unanimous, and for now the Bulgarians are apparently holding out. It's a minority government there, formed with support from a right wing party that is staunchly pro-Russian, and absolutely approves of the Russian annexation of Crimea. Either this Bulgarian government nixes any move by the EU against Russian gas imports, or its a government crisis in Bulgaria.

    Otherwise the logic of gas consumption says that the EU might want to embargo Russia in spring and summer, when the demand is low, and then hook itself up again when it starts to get nippy. For a Russian embargo of the EU to be really effective, it's precisely when temperatures drop they should do that. But otoh then Russia loses the revenue from the winter season, when the demand, consumption and prices all tend to be high.

    Who knows, maybe the EU can turn Russia into a kind of seasonal energy economy? We embargo them in summer, and then wave the money in front of the Russian noses in time for the cold months. They can of course do the principled thing, and turn their noses up at the money, but then they will lose out on the lucrative winter season. It wouldn't be the most efficient of sanction arrangements, but it might give everyone something to think about?:scan:
     
  8. Tahuti

    Tahuti Writing Deity

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    I understand the fears, yet if we are frank, those ARE leftovers from the Cold War. Remember why I made the comparison with the Arab-Israeli conflict? Because the Arab countries still think in terms of when Israel was just established and automatically went to war in a Pavlovian reaction. We are doing the same and it will damage us as it did to the Arabs.

    Russia has no interest in acquiring interest in any part of Eastern Europe that doesn't have a populace willing to join Russia. We should work to keep it that way.

    Again, Ukraine is not EU. If it was Estonia it would have been a different matter. And speaking of which, the EU was right to demand to Estonia to improve the rights of Russian speakers as pre-condition of joining the EU.

    For starters, ending the Atlanticist dogma?

    Ukraine is a sharply divided country. Diverse ethnic groups need not to be a problem, yet Ukraine is clearly politically divided in those who have interest in ties with Russia and those who have ties with Ukraine. It would be a sensible solution to split Ukraine. I've ridiculed that notion in the past, yet let's face it: The Ukrainian crisis is not going to solve itself.

    The problem is that even if Russia were to be liberal polity guided by the rule of law, we would still be hostile with the mindset we currently have.

    Besides, human rights abuse by a state can never be an excuse to be hostile to that state if the result simply will be more human rights abuses. Iraq 2003 ring any bells?
     
  9. Takhisis

    Takhisis daria dance party

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    How much money does Russia make from selling gas and/or oil to the rest of Europe? I'm not that sure that they could do without all that money.
    Isn't serving as a giant prison cell enough?
     
  10. NewEnd

    NewEnd Warlord

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    And the european economy is in no position to buy it at any other price but cheap.

    Not even gonna happen.

    It is funny you think the EU isn't violent now. NATO is incredibly violent. Nobody has dropped more bombs or killed more people in the past 20 years than nations working at the behest of NATO/IMF/US/EU. It is all the same power structure, and they all have the same goal.

    the EU/NATO/US has been bullying the world since the soviet Union fell, with money, power and violence at their discretion. In fact, I can't even see how you would expect them to do any more so than they are now, without full scale world war.

    I thought you had forgotten this past. Your pan-european fanaticism sure seems to suggest it. Why you feel safe int he arms of these people, and worth something, is a mystery to me. Western Europe could care less about the Czech Republic, and would sell them out in a heart beat if it were expedient.

    You talk of the states, but what about the people? The US and now the IMF et al have never stopped interfering with the countries of the EU either. When you say "their" you mean the bankers of Europe, "their" matters. The people of Europe have a whole different set of worries.

    The Ukrainians are just about to find that out. Instead of cheap gas, they will now get gas 50% more, plus the removal of the Russian discount. This in return for a load of debt slavery that their grand children will be paying off. And will Ukraine, in return, become an economic miracle?

    The idea is laughable. It will get way worse than Greece or Spain.

    You all seem to be missing something here. Energy is a finite resource. If you just try to pull Russia out of the trade system, the whole world feels shockwaves, shockwaves big enough to cause the weak, stumbling world economy to completely collapse.

    It is completely inefficient and expensive to ship gas to Europe from Australia. Pipelines are made because they transport the energy CHEAP.

    As a people, none. But the leaders of the EU are slaves to the Central Banks, and the Central Banks hate Russia, because it is not yet ready to sell it's people into austerity for the sacrifices necessary to build bigger yachts and extra mansions.

    The dozens of NATO foreign incursions have already proven "we" have resigned on those tenets long ago. It is funny how you talk of the EU as "we". The EU is in no way a "we". It is held together by weak bonds that eventually will break. And then your armband will mean nothing, and you'll be just another Czech. It is so sad you get some feeling of belonging from what is essentially an experimental and artificial system of government created by a Central Banking system.

    I comprehended it fine.
     
  11. Verbose

    Verbose Deity

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    That MIGHT be fine and dandy, if there was actual agreement on who this populace is. There's not. More to whit, Russia keeps moving the target around who these people are supposed to be. And by now we know that the present Russian government is perfectly happy to do this through "politics by paratrooper".

    That makes the situation inherently unstable, dangerous, and not necessarily successfully resolved if left to Russia to decide unilaterally. Though the Russian government might like nothing better. We take their word, they take some land and people, and later it might well transpire these people, on that land, think we sold them out, and the whole thing potentially comes back to back everybody's backside.
     
  12. NewEnd

    NewEnd Warlord

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    What really gets me is why this question is even being bandied about as if it is realistic either way. Gas will not be shut off from Russia, nor will their be a Europe wide boycott of Russian national gas.

    It could only happen in a world war scenario, and neither side is actually anywhere near hostile enough to start a world war, nor is Europe united enough to start dying en masse for a flag and a huge book of trade rules and a common currency.

    This is simply not enough to stir people to war a solid entity. Nor is it enough for them to accept the sacrifices require to actually boycott Russian natural gas. The whole conversation about what if's is SO inane. It is not going to happen.

    Russia is in control.

    1. Nationalism stirs sentiment, not pan Europeanism.
    2. Russia can cut off gas to who it wants, when it wants, but Europe can not do the same. Europe needs Russian gas more than Russia needs their paper currency.
    3. Russia is, and always has been, one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world. This is important, because foreign capital is mostly essential only to provide the advanced goods that country can provide. Russia can mostly provide for herself.

    The coup in the Ukraine was a sign of desperation. It was all about Syria, actually, and Putin saw the move for what it was, and didn't even think before positioning the pawn he had set.

    It's check mate. The west is stumbling around, putting it's hand on a piece, and then pulling back, furrowing its brow, putting its hand on another piece, looking around the board, wishing it could make two moves instead of one, telling Russia that the game isn't over yet, and again holding it's finger to it's chin, completely stunned. It has been outwitted.
     
  13. Verbose

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    It is a possible way to regard things. It's a rather unfair view, but not impossible.

    Which means you are not going to be so naive as to think any of these entities is going to become even a smidge nicer and less violence-prone — if that is really what they are — UNRESTRAINED by the UN system? Which was the point. There is a principle under attack, of not accepting right of conquest. If the principle instead becomes that conquest confers rights, and the great powers all get in on it, everybody will get to become part of a great power, and there's likely going to be a scramble. If these westerners are already such bad customers, how much violence do you think you should expect? Or is it that you think the west already unconstrained by the UN system, and so it won't matter? (Which, if so, I think would be a mistaken idea.)

    Lots of people think the UN system is a sham. Lots of Americans too, not least. Insufficient and imperfect as it is, it's still the only principle-based protection, by mutual consent, against what in Swedish is called "the fist-right".
     
  14. NewEnd

    NewEnd Warlord

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    The Ukrainians will soon be wishing they had been "sold out" to Russia, and not the IMF.
     
  15. Verbose

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    What everybody should really be looking for from now on, is the EU diversification of its energy supply.

    And if Russia knew how to build a consumer economy, it wouldn't still be relying on raw material exports.
     
  16. NewEnd

    NewEnd Warlord

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    The sanctity of marriage was under attack way before gays. Just like the sanctity of the UN was under attack way before Russia annexed Crimea. Try looking to all the wars NATO and the US engaged in, with or without the consent of the UN, before calling a bloodless annexation some kind of attack on the principles of the UN. You can start with the Korean War, and go form there. The UN has never been anything but a tool of the west, and was always about preserving an archaic world system of power.

    Protection for who, exactly? Korea? Vietnam? Grenada? Guetemala? Colombia? Iran? Iraq? Libya? Sudan? Yugoslavia? Panama? Nicaragua? Cuba? Afghanistan? The people of Spain? Of Greece?

    Who exactly is the UN protecting, and from whom are they protecting these people?
    Pipe dreams!

    the US talked about this in the 1970's. Since then, it has done very little to achieve energy independence.

    And, as in my chess analogy, this is the EU wishing it could move twice. You don't have time to diversify. Europe should have done that a long time ago. Too busy building weapons and stadiums and going to war.

    Russia is fine! Russia doesn't need Europe as bad as Europe needs Russia. It has China. And China needs cheap energy more than it needs US capital and Euro money. It is up to it's ears in that junk.

    The whole discussion, as I have noted, is ridiculous. Europeans and the west are now realizing, that Russia is a part of the world economy, and not just because the rules in the UN say so, but in every reality, it is a player, and it is going to come back.

    Of course the Chinese already knew this, in their multi-polar theory they wrote about 20 years ago.
     
  17. Verbose

    Verbose Deity

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    Please indicate which of these have been subject to military conquest — not invasion and/or occupation, but conquest — in full, thus having had to be either stricken off the list of current soverign nations, or in part, at least by losing national territory to some other nation by right of conquest?

    And Spain? Really? Care to explain how you're figuring that one?
     
  18. Takhisis

    Takhisis daria dance party

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    up yours!
    Another interesting thought: if this is about the rights of Russian speakers and historical restitution, what about the rights of non-Russian speakers? Or are some peoples more equal than others?
    I do agree that Russia holds the advantage right now, not only because of those factors but also because there are less internal checks on what the government can and does do (do you see anyone forcing Putin out of office? the French government is currently a shambles) but I still think that a OPEP '73-1 might be feasible. Of course this is highly theoretical because the EU is too disunited to do it and they don't have the timeframe to do such a thing, Putin could invade all of Ukraine up to the gates of Kyiv during the next six months and no economic sanctions would have any effect fast enough to prevent him from doing anything.
     
  19. NewEnd

    NewEnd Warlord

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    You are still thinking in the archaic way of flags and colors and line drawn on maps. You seem to think that the annexation of Crimea was politically different from the various installations of puppet governments around the world by the US and/or NATO. Just because the US did not go in and hoist an American flag over the face of the Saddam statue and declare Iraq the 51st state, does not mean it was any less of a conquest and control of the resources and people of Iraq by the banking interests of the western banking conglomerate, ie, the IMF, the world Bank, and the various major central banks.

    The people of Greece and Spain are suffering from the austerity measures of these rulers, and their governments helpless to stop their people from being pilfered in the name of "what is necessary". Necessary to who? Do you honestly believe that one day Greece and Spain will have vibrant economies? Do you actually think they will austerity measure their way to prosperity?

    You are continuing to bluster and cry over a letter of law, whose spirit was obliterated literally within days of it being created. The UN has never been anything but a tool of the west. Ever.
     
  20. Verbose

    Verbose Deity

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    So who wasn't aware Russia is a part of the world economy? It's been the EU gambit to MAKE it so these last 20 years. And that bit was successful. The Soviet Union was pretty much an self-sufficient autonomous economy, present day Russia is not. For what it's worth Russia is a world actor in economic terms, with about 3% of the world GDP. The EU represents 25% of the world GDP.

    The bit that's likely going to bite Russia regardless, is that it is now the master of 3% of the world GDP, on the condition that it presents a picture and situation amenable to business and trade. Armies traipsing about, provinces lopped off of neighbours, threats and intimidation, are all things that typically makes markets and investors seriously nervous, making them head for the exits.

    Russia is where it is for being a good boy so far. If Russia turns naughty, it might still all change. What Russia has built for itself in the post-Soviet world economy, is not some kind of fief it rules and controls by fiat, but a much more unruly and fugitive agglomeration of assets.
     
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