Ukraine Crisis master thread

[Winner]

That is an exaggeration. Ukraine is pretty miserable by Western standards, but I'd still rather live there than in, say, Egypt, Pakistan, Nigeria or any number of third world countries.

More crucially, Ukraine still has the essentials of economic success; if managed properly, the country would rebound pretty quickly.

 

[BvBPL]

If Russia chooses to economically crush Ukraine, then EU should retaliate against Russia in the same manner

Why would they?

This Ukraine / Crimeria crap is just slavs killing slavs. That ain't good for nothing but some moralizing and stirring up the domestic population for their two minutes of hate.

You start to mess with economic consequences for Russia's actions then that hits the bottom line. Can't have that. Germany wouldn't allow it.

Nothing is going to change. No material action will be taken. Western Europe and America will listen tot he preacher pound the pulpit for a while, but ain't nothing gonna change when the collection plate gets passed around.

Might as well get in front of this and start slapping Russia's butt and congratulating them on a job well done.

 

[Rashiminos]

More crucially, Ukraine still has the essentials of economic success; if managed properly, the country would rebound pretty quickly.

Do you think the management will improve in the coming years as a result of the revolution?

 

[Formaldehyde]

So are the Russians invading or not. It's very hard to sort through all the contradicting reports.

It depends on what you mean by an "invasion". Next some will claim a busload of Russian tourists who venture too far into Germany is a precursory intelligence gathering operation for the inevitable dominoes to start falling. That a new cement plant in Moscow is a certain sign that they are going to keep their promise to bury us.

 

[Tahuti]

This Ukraine / Crimeria crap is just slavs killing slavs. That ain't good for nothing but some moralizing and stirring up the domestic population for their two minutes of hate.

It's probably a lot more than that, considering both Russia and several EU nations possess nukes. And if Crimea can be taken, a precedent can be set for the Russian populations of the Baltic States (who are NATO and EU members) as well. Not to mention Russia can blackmail us (EU guys) with their oil and gas supply. If the EU wasn't so dependent on Russia for its oil and gas, then I guess you could say it wouldn't have been a problem.

Yes, it is true that is a dangerous indifference within the EU itself, notably Germany (whose government is effectively a Russian lapdog in the EU), though that doesn't make it less important.

 

[TheLastOne36]

Do you think the management will improve in the coming years as a result of the revolution?

I'm skeptical because I don't have much faith in the new government to be any different.

However, the terms of an IMF loan and any requirements set by the European Union in the process of becoming an associate member might due enough to reduce corruption in Ukraine.

At the very least, its worth the try.

 

[Formaldehyde]

How many revolutions do you think it will take for an acceptable president to be elected?

 

[Tani Coyote]

Ethnic enclaves don't tend to end well from all I've heard. I'm actually fully supportive of Crimea joining Russia, even if I wish this had been done more peacefully. Unfortunately, nationalist tensions seldom end that way.

I heard the Duma is already working on legislation to allow for Crimea (and any other locality that votes in favor) to join the Federation. So if Crimea does in fact become its own state, I get the feeling it's going to be just like Texas and enjoy a very brief independence. It sounds like said law disregards if other nations claim sovereignty over the territory, however, so that doesn't bode well...

Overall though I'm with Winner on the subject. The consumer, not the supplier, decides the terms of debate. The West can win on that front alone, it's just a problem of the countries involved having enough boldness to stand up to Russia.

Which they won't, since one or two years of economic damage, even potential, tends to result in being unseated.

 

[kramerfan86]

The west likely wont do anything unless Russia actually gets violent. If russia starts shooting you could see some actual sanctions fly, if this clean conquest holds true though likely youll just get some strongly worded letters.

 

[Rashiminos]

However, the terms of an IMF loan and any requirements set by the European Union in the process of becoming an associate member might due enough to reduce corruption in Ukraine.

Why not? The 1992 attempt and onward worked well enough, didn't it?

 

[Magma_Dragoon]

The so-called protesters demanding closer ties or unification with Russia in eastern Ukraine are in fact not Ukrainian, but Russian. Plain clothed Russian agents were deployed via tour buses to seize government building and voice calls for secession, giving Russia a pretext to invade.

Real life meets civ in a totally serious yet also possibly funny way. Write to your senator or representative and demand a nonbinding resolution denouncing Russia as a warmongering menace to the world and encourage European solidarity.

http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/

 

[Formaldehyde]

Next some will claim a busload of Russian tourists who venture too far into Germany is a precursory intelligence gathering operation for the inevitable dominoes to start falling.

Plain clothed Russian agents were deployed via tour buses to seize government building and voice calls for secession, giving Russia a pretext to invade.

Hmm...

 

[ywhtptgtfo]

Just wait till some Russian improvises a terrorist attack on Russian soldiers.

 

[Mouthwash]

Just wait till some Russian improvises a terrorist attack on Russian soldiers.

Bwa ha ha!

 

[Antilogic]

Supposedly warning shots were fired at one point today, stuff like that is how it can quickly spiral.

The standoff earlier today would be hilarious if there was not so much at stake. The Russian soldiers asking the Ukrainians "are you provoking us?" You are in their country with guns, dude. Seriously.

 

[Winner]

Do you think the management will improve in the coming years as a result of the revolution?

The law of diminishing returns cuts both ways. In a country so massively corrupt as Ukraine due to years of pro-Kremlin cronyism and just pure incompetence, even little steps against corruption and for greater professionalism in the administration can yield significant results. And both parts of Ukraine will profit from this. The goal should be to push the oligarchs away from politics and take other steps to curb their power.

I agree that any comprehensive move towards Scandinavia-like corruption level may take many decades to take effect. In Czechia, corruption remains pretty high 25 years after we got rid of Communism, because the Commies have effectively infiltrated business and politics. A running joke here goes like:

"Hi, who're you going to vote for?"
"The Communists."
"I know, but from which party?"

Still, the EU is a force for good in this - if you get bashed by reports pointing to massive corruption in several areas of administration, if the EU institutions threaten to cut funding for key projects because of mismanagement, a steady pressure for improvement is created.

This can be very effective in EU candidate countries; when their goal is membership, their drive for change, even through painful means, is much stronger.

---

20.26 More than 1,000 demonstrators with Ukrainian flags took to the streets of the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk on Tuesday, for the first time outnumbering pro-Moscow youths who have seized its government building, which flies the Russian flag, Reuters reports.

President Vladimir Putin's declaration on Saturday that Russia had the right to invade Ukraine was accompanied by pro-Russian demonstrations across Ukraine's mainly Russian-speaking south and east.

But in the four days since, the tide of opinion in eastern cities appears to be turning back towards Kiev.

Bearing placards with slogans such as: "I am Russian. I don't need protection," the protesters marched near the occupied regional government building, staying far enough away to avoid clashing with the pro-Russian youths still inside.

 

[Tahuti]

In Czechia, corruption remains pretty high 25 years after we got rid of Communism, because the Commies have effectively infiltrated business and politics.

Aren't wages for civil servants relatively low around here? I wager increasing civil servants' pay will make corruption pay-off less.

 

[Winner]

Aren't wages for civil servants relatively low around here? I wager increasing civil servants' pay will make corruption pay-off less.

Not too low by Czech standards. The problem is the absence of a Civil Service law which would protect civil servants, especially high-level under-secretaries at Ministries, from being fired by politicians. The common practice today is for a new minister to bring his own people with him to the Ministry, ensuring havoc in the Ministry's routine work as well as more room for corruption in the future (because we need to reward "our guys" for supporting us before the election, right?).

The EU has already made it clear that Czechia will lose billions of €uros allocated to development funding if it doesn't enact a civilized civil service law, so we shall see. This would do wonders to eliminate a lot of corruption in the highest levels of government.

 

[Tahuti]

Not too low by Czech standards. The problem is the absence of a Civil Service law which would protect civil servants, especially high-level under-secretaries at Ministries, from being fired by politicians. The common practice today is for a new minister to bring his own people with him to the Ministry, ensuring havoc in the Ministry's routine work as well as more room for corruption in the future (because we need to reward "our guys" for supporting us before the election, right?).

The EU has already made it clear that Czechia will lose billions of €uros allocated to development funding if it doesn't enact a civilized civil service law, so we shall see. This would do wonders to eliminate a lot of corruption in the highest levels of government.

The problem is that the politicians have an interest to perputuate it. To be fair, had Ukraine not have been bogged down by the Crimean crisis, it would have better set up to deal with the civil servant crisis than Czechia is; the new rulers likely haven't grown addicted to the corruption that is pervasive to Ukrainian society.

 

[Veles]

Again, currently the best outcome is to assemble the UN commettee on Ukrainian crisis, where the representatives of West Ukraine and East Ukraine can assemble and produce a new constitutuon, which:

- Declares Ukraine a federation or confederation of independant regions with powerful local parliaments, having the authority to appoint all top executive branch positions in the region from the local people only. Currently they are all appointed from Kiev.

- Declares the Ukrainian and Russian languages two official state languages.

- Abolishes figures like President and Prime-Minister. All legislature is to be produced by a parliament and approved by a Senate. The federal executive branch is to be appointed by the Senate.

- Allows secession for regions, based on the referendum of 2/3 of a population.

That would deescalate everything.