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Ukraine Crisis Thread III: a new European order?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Winner, Apr 19, 2014.

  1. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    House rules:

    1) Maintain common sense;
    2) Argue in good faith;
    3) No Kremlin propaganda;
    4) Be civil.

    Issues to be discussed:

    a) Will Russia invade?
    b) Will the election in May take place?
    c) Will the West get its act together, finally?
    c) Is there a light at the end of the tunnel, or is the crisis going to get worse?

     
  2. Tolina

    Tolina trust the pillars with your s e c r e t s

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    There's light in the end of the tunnel. Too bad, there's a light at the other end of the tunnel, too!

    And both lights are really fast trains that will collide any time soon, unless the rails get derailed, which case in scenario, won't improve things by much.
     
  3. RedRalph

    RedRalph Chieftain

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    Is Winner allowed set the rules now"
     
  4. Tolina

    Tolina trust the pillars with your s e c r e t s

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    Rules, that, inevitably, will be broken almost immediately by both sides.
     
  5. kramerfan86

    kramerfan86 Chieftain

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    I dont know if Russia will invade, the current destabilization favors them as if it last long enough Ukrainians may swing back to the Russian sphere in elections if they believe the West isnt beneficial to them. Swinging back and forth wildly though is what got Ukraine into this mess.
     
  6. SS-18 ICBM

    SS-18 ICBM Oscillator

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    I was a reading a copy of the Economist earlier this week and I found it interesting Crimea was marked in both European and Russian (shaded) colors on one map.
     
  7. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    A series of polls were conducted in eastern Ukraine:


    Unification with Russia:
    52.2% of people oppose annexation to Russia
    27.5% of people support annexation to Russia
    17.3% don't know

    Decentralisation as offered by Kiev:
    41.1% support decentralisation of government
    38.7% want federalisation as per Moscow's requests
    10.6% want no change in this regard

    Legitimacy of the new Kiev government:
    74.0% consider the acting president Turchynov illegitimate
    72.1% consider the prime minister Yatsenyuk illegitimate

    Former president Yankuvych:
    32.4% still consider Yanukovych as the legitimate president of Ukraine
    58.2% do not consider Yanukovych as the legimitate president of Ukraine
     
  8. cybrxkhan

    cybrxkhan Asian Xwedodah

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    When I saw the "III" in this thread I started laughing, seriously.
     
  9. Agent327

    Agent327 Observer

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    Surely not. Russia has promised it will not invade. Then withdrawn that promise.

    I don't think he's really serious about it. He didn't even bother with RD
     
  10. RedRalph

    RedRalph Chieftain

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    Source, etc?
     
  11. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    I am glad you find the violation of Ukrainian sovereignty so amusing :)

    Putin on his TV show:
    - "Yeah, we had troops in Crimea, they were cool guys who behaved very professionally." [he had previously denied Russian military personnel were present in Crimea prior to its secession]
    - "[Western accusations are] Rubbish. We have no military or other personnel in eastern Ukraine."

    :crazyeye:

    Consider it my meagre attempt at making people here act in a more adult and civilized fashion. I am no mod so my power to actually enforce civility is non-existent.

    Got it from a Czech news site; here's an English source crediting AFP. The poll was apparently conducted among 3000+ respondents in the "pro-Russian" part of Ukraine.
     
  12. RedRalph

    RedRalph Chieftain

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    It was done by something called the Kiev institute for international sociology. I don't know anything about it.
     
  13. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    Me neither. However, the numbers seem about right compared to what I am hearing from the Czech reporters in eastern Ukraine.

    They don't show 99% support for the government, which is a good sign. They also seem to reflect well the general apathy and distrust of authorities in that general region.
     
  14. RedRalph

    RedRalph Chieftain

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    The figures could be accurate, I don't know. I suspect support for annexation would be a bit higher, but my gut instinct is that a great many people in the Donbas don't know which option is best.
     
  15. Core Imposter

    Core Imposter Chieftain

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    At some point I'd hope that we will get a set of political leaders in the US that will recognize the legitimate security interests of Russia.

    And understand the limits of legitimate security interests of the US.

    Cooperation is better than conflict.

    Neo-con policy in Washington has led us to this crisis. Our government seeks to use Eastern European countries as pawns in a foolish attempt to perpetuate US hegemony.

    Trying to exclude Russia from the global economic system is petulant passive aggressive pettiness and can under no circumstances be profitable for anyone.

    Sanctions hurt ordinary people and make armed conflict more likely. People do not seem to understand that we are in the midst of a global economic war already. Its a war no one can win.

    Systems of mutual defense pacts led to the first two world wars. NATO should have been abolished after the end of the Cold War.

    Western Europe needs to see to their own defense needs. The illusion of security amounts to pent up instability and can not serve as a foundation of enduring peace.

    Past and present policy tends to transform Putin into a Hitler, in perception and possibly in fact.

    All of this is a struggle between groups of elites on all sides of all borders. The people are always the losers. All we can do in the US for the people of Ukraine and their neighbors is to stand up to our own out of control Federal government.

    If we fail to do it another great war is inevitable with consequences more grim that we can imagine.
     
  16. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    ^The game is past just Russia by now. Considering the overall global climate, i would think that it would be better to actually have the clown-politicians try to discuss for a change.

    But worst of all is that some do actually seem to believe the freekshow they have as their country leaders, cause they are even more turned off by Soviet in capital letters and tanks. I am pretty sure that the vast majority of people in Europe and America have no will to fight a war, let alone so as to supposedly maintain the current comedic society they "enjoy".
     
  17. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Warlord Super Moderator

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    I think the Ukrainian authorities really need to give in to the demand for federalization, and propose a new constitution to that effect. If I take that poll at face value, it appears that the Eastern Ukrainians are overwhelmingly opposed to submitting to a unitary state under control of Kiev, but would prefer to stay in Ukraine with a large amount of autonomy rather than being annexed by Russia. It appears this would be the best way to keep Ukraine's borders (excluding Crimea) intact and leave Putin without any reasonable-sounding excuse for outright invasion.

    I suspect the presidential election will occur as planned, but with low turnout across the east and south, where many won't see it as legitimate. Hopefully the new president can somehow manage to be a uniting figure, with extensive compromises to the easterners.
     
  18. RedRalph

    RedRalph Chieftain

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    If fedrralisation happens, Russia will have a permanent lever of power over Ukraine.
     
  19. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    Of course, Russia is only championing "federalisation" because that would mean a permanent deadlock of Ukrainian politics and a creation of a "state within the state" in eastern Ukraine, under Russian influence. I.e., annexation by covert means. Kiev would have to be suicidal to give its assent to that.

    Greater regional power, on the other hand, is a very good thing to consider since it doesn't create semi-state-like legal subjects which could later claim the right to secede (like Crimea).

    But this question is moot unless Ukraine holds elections and the eastern voters are able (and willing) to participate. I am afraid that if the current chaos in eastern Ukraine continues, opening polling stations there and holding anything resembling free elections is impossible.

    Which is again what Russia wants - weak, divided, chaotic Ukraine is preferable to united and reasonably prosperous Ukraine lead by someone who's not controlled from Moscow. Zero-sum game, folks. It seems Kremlin is intent on sabotaging elections since there's no candidate there it would like.

    That's very unlikely if eastern voters are not allowed to vote freely by the thugs who occupy certain places there. Organizing elections is no easy task in such a country under the best of times; now imagine trying to set up polling stations in towns where armed separatists occupy public buildings, set up roadblocks, and threaten journalists and generally anybody they don't like.
     
  20. RedRalph

    RedRalph Chieftain

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    Sort of ironic, by throwing out the pro-Russian government, the Kiev rebels might end up with a Ukraine which is even more controlled by Moscow, and minus Crimea.
     

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