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[RD] US 2016 election: Poll watching thread

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by dutchfire, Jul 14, 2016.

  1. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

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    Yes, based on current poll numbers, I peg Clinton's likely margin of victory around 7. Double digits aren't out of the question, by any means.

    The pollsters seem to think that many heretofore unseen white people will be swamping the polls to vote for Trump, while some more pro-Clinton demographics stay home out of torpor. This far out, I guess it's a fair assumption, but not one I find the slightest bit compelling, nor does the polling data itself seem to support such a finding. Not with the kinds of margins we're seeing among minority voters in the polls, and the overall interest level in the election which, if the debate ratings are what they're saying they might be, could be extreme despite the relative unpopularity of the candidates. They know where every last one of the swing state Obama coalition is, and they have the resources to get them to the polls.
     
  2. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Seems like pooling is akin to numerology: people will believe whatever they wish to believe.
     
  3. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    Unlikely.

    More likely is that Clinton at +80 means she is at 83%, Trump is at 3% and the alternative candidates are drawing the remaining 14%. Assuming the measured object is black voting inclination. In a straight two party poll Clinton would be running closer to +90 than +80.
     
  4. Thedrin

    Thedrin Deity

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    This seems reasonable. I thought 10% for Trump seemed high. ... And, yes, digging into the numbers on 538 shows it to be the case.
     
  5. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

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    Not really. The data is sitting there for anyone to look at
     
  6. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    All of which says that Clinton has a small lead. We knew that. We also know that Obama had record turnout numbers. No one is looking for those this year. It's side by side entering the final stretch.

    J
     
  7. daft

    daft The fargone

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    Go Trump!
    Create a new straight-shooting world, or destroy the old one-filled with corruption and pretentious lies.

    Either way, build us a better world, or let's all go to h...
     
  8. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Good luck with that. I'll have ____ and____ hold theie breath til it happens.

    Nate Silver's day-of update is a dead heat. Here is a chart of how some polls have moved to get to this point.

    POLLSTER NEW POLL AVG. OF PREVIOUS POLLS TREND
    ABC News/Washington Post Clinton +2 Clinton +6 Trump +4
    CVOTER International Clinton +1 Clinton +1 —
    Monmouth University Clinton +4 Clinton +7 Trump +3
    Morning Consult Trump +1 Clinton +4 Trump +5
    Quinnipiac University Clinton +1 Clinton +4 Trump +3
    RKM Research Clinton +2 Clinton +2 —
    Selzer & Company Trump +2 Clinton +11 Trump +13
    SurveyMonkey Clinton +5 Clinton +4 Clinton +1
    USC Dornsife/LA Times Trump +4 Trump +1 Trump +3
    YouGov Clinton +3 Clinton +3 —​
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clinton-edge-gets-even-narrower/

    Hillary could kill all the momentum tonight with a big win. I don't look for it, but it's quite possible.

    J
     
  9. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

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    There hasn't been any momentum. Trump stopped convincing people a couple of weeks ago. He hasn't made any headway with people he actually needs voting for him if he wants to win.

    Also, Obama didn't drive record turnout in 2012, by any means. Turnout was middling at best.
     
  10. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    In a reversal of earlier numbers, the Senate control flipped back to the Democrats.

    Early reviews of the debates seem to indicate a Clinton win.

    J
     
  11. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    No... more accurately, in poker its called a tell, and it gives away when Trump is getting ready to drop a YUUGE whopper... Its funny because I was explaining "tells" to my son this evening as he was trying to tell me some little whoppers of his own... only to turn on the Presidential debate to see a guy running to be the leader of the country unable to tell a more convincing lie than my 6 year old...:lol:
     
  12. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Not in this debate. He did it when she got under his skin.

    J
     
  13. Leoreth

    Leoreth Prince of Blood Moderator

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    Not necessarily, if you define your rules (i.e. model etc.) first and stick to them after looking at the data, it works.

    If every poll needs its own process to be "unskewed" then yes, numerology is a good comparison.
     
  14. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

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    The thing about polls is they are conducted by human beings, who bring their own biases and expectations to the table each and every time they crunch the data to produce a result. Like any such endeavor, it is susceptible to being gamed to produce results in line with the pollster's preconceived notions about what the result ought to be. It is also susceptible to being designed to conform with the herd.
     
  15. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Definitely. A Statistic is a Platonic Ideal. It is the way things really are and it is never known. We try to estimate it.

    J
     
  16. Algeroth

    Algeroth 8 and 1/2

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    No. Not universally. But in this thread selfdelusion runs high.
     
  17. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    If we take enough samples, we can estimate how high the self-delusion runs. ;)

    J
     
  18. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Deity

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    Nate Silver says it will take 5-7 days for any effect of the debate to show up.
     
  19. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Reuter/Ipsos polls :
    8th-12th : C39 T39 J8 S2 Tie
    15th-19th : C37 T39 J7 S2 Trump +2
    22nd-26th : C42 T38 J7 S2 Clinton +4

    So right before the debate Clinton was gaining ground. Given that she won the debate things are not looking good for Trump. Let's see if he bleeds out in post debate polls.

    Edit : Generic congressional vote also got from +1R (15th-19th) to +6D (22nd-26th) with Reuter/Ipsos
     
  20. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Deity

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    Nate Silver just increased Hillary's chances by 4%, and he flipped Florida back into the Hillary camp
     

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