[RD] US 2016 election: Poll watching thread

[Camikaze]

So in the last two hours, Clinton's chances have improved by a full 1%. At this rate, she'll break through 100 by Monday. That's how it works, right?

In all seriousness, if I thought panic were an appropriate or productive response to polls, then now would be the time. Nervousness is probably more accurate. I don't understand how Sam Wang's 97% prediction is at all intellectually honest. He's like the Karl Rove of 2016.

The interesting thing has been that Clinton's vote hasn't really dropped - Trump's has just gone up. That indicates that the support that has resulted in polls tightening around traditional Republicans biting the bullet, having been reluctant up to now to express support for Trump. We're not talking now in patronising terms about poor benighted rural folk who just can't be expected to know any better than to make an objectively immoral choice, but about people who recognise the moral hazard that Trump represents, but who nonetheless are willing to vote for him before he has an R next to his name. I hope that's remembered when the inevitable post-election moral reckoning is conducted.

 

[Farm Boy]

That's a lot of words for a simple call to vengeance, a questionable use of the words "objectively" and "immoral," and a wonderful conflation of the powerful and not.

You'd make a fantastic Republican.

 

[Camikaze]

I mean, self-deprecation or reflection is half the point of that absolutist phrasing - there'll be a moral reckoning (or navel-gazing, at least) once the election is over, and the major impediment to any sort of productive endpoint for that is that it will inevitably be approached from the perspective that one choice or the other was objectively immoral. That presents real difficulties when trying to understand why some people or groups tended to vote the way they did, because it either assumes evil or ignorance.

But that difficulty doesn't arise so much when talking about those who evidently agree that Trump is, at best, a morally troublesome choice, but who are now expediently forgetting all the sexual assault stuff, racism, etc. that made them tell pollsters they were undecided in the first place. We can direct ire at some people more readily than others.

 

[tetley]

In all seriousness, if I thought panic were an appropriate or productive response to polls, then now would be the time.

I admit, panic is neither appropriate nor productive, but the really high anxiety that I have is not about the polls--but about Trump. I don't understand how the guy gets votes.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I don't understand how the guy gets votes.

I do, because I understand my countrymen. That's why the first three words of your sentence explain the last four. Trump gets votes because half the country doesn't understand, and doesn't care to understand the other half. Trump voters get that half the country doesn't understand them and doesn't agree with them. Trump understands them and Trump agrees with them, so they agree with him. As I have said many times... people have their reasons.

That "basket of deplorables" comment and the reaction is a perfect illustration of this principle.

 

[Archbob]

Trump doesn't actually agree with them, he just pretends to.

 

[tetley]

I do, because I understand my countrymen.

Then that is all the more reason to be anxious. It's not just about Donald Trump--it's about 25 million Americans who are somehow okay with him. Not just one crazed madman, but a whole plethora ready & willing to engage in his Trumpantics. That's something to be scared of.

 

[civman110]

That presents real difficulties when trying to understand why some people or groups tended to vote the way they did, because it either assumes evil or ignorance.

For decades the right was fighting over policy, not realizing that the left was fighting a war against them. The difference you are seeing now is that the right finally understands that the left wants to destroy them. Nearly every left wing position is openly hostile toward the right, even to the extreme ends of forcefully replacing them with Hispanics from Latin America and Middle Easterners, as the smug ivory tower liberals love to remind them. Expecting half of the country to just roll over and slowly die off while you smugly laugh in their faces is pure delusion. Liberals foolishly picked a fight they can't win because they mistakenly thought they'd never have to actually fight it.

I hope that's remembered when the inevitable post-election moral reckoning is conducted.

Be careful what you wish for when it comes to a "reckoning." Hate begets hate and it might not be the reckoning you desire.

In all seriousness, if I thought panic were an appropriate or productive response to polls, then now would be the time. Nervousness is probably more accurate. I don't understand how Sam Wang's 97% prediction is at all intellectually honest. He's like the Karl Rove of 2016.

The interesting thing has been that Clinton's vote hasn't really dropped - Trump's has just gone up. That indicates that the support that has resulted in polls tightening around traditional Republicans biting the bullet, having been reluctant up to now to express support for Trump.

The polls are just as bogus now as they were in the mid-western States where it showed Clinton up by +20% over Sanders in some cases.

 

[Lexicus]

Then that is all the more reason to be anxious. It's not just about Donald Trump--it's about 25 million Americans who are somehow okay with him. Not just one crazed madman, but a whole plethora ready & willing to engage in his Trumpantics. That's something to be scared of.

It is close to three times that number, actually. It is terrifying to me.

 

[metalhead]

I'm fully convinced now that my take from a week or 2 ago is accurate, and Hillary will win by 7, possibly more if the ground game advantage turns out to be a real thing.

The polling is all over the place at the state level. Nevada has moved over to Trump on the 538 map, but Jon Ralston says it's all but a done deal for Hillary. The ABC tracker is giving Hillary a small +2 margin, but with an absurd model of the electorate that gives poorly educated whites an insane 10% higher share of the electorate than they are likely to be.

Her margins with college whites are holding firm. That and Latino turnout are the stories of the election, and they will swing this to being more like 2008 than 2012.

 

[Gori the Grey]

If there aren't multiple people strapped down, the analogy fails to represent an integral part of the reality it would seek to illuminate.

But hey! It's a nice story. Even if it's no Revelation 12:11.

The Voice from the Vortex whispers "Come my way." (Charybdis is part Siren in this version of the story.) "The six of you who think Scylla will grab you, you're the real Ithacans. It's those other of your crewmates that are the problem. You know, the darker skinned ones. I'll drown them."

And the Voice from the Vortex will deliver on that promise. It will drown them. But only because it will drown everyone. It's a vortex. Drowning is what it does.

The only way forward does involve loss. There are six who can't be saved. It is the most pitiful scene that these eyes have looked on.

The story illustrates with great precision the reality it seeks to illuminate.

 

[Farm Boy]

So unstrap them and start MF-ing rowing. Hard, so they can see which way they have to help going. Explain to them that the hero is an intolerable a-hole working to bring about their destruction and not so fond of letting them in on super pertinent information. Then help them pitch him the eff overboard, flip off the gods, and convince the Amazons back the way you came that it'd be a groovy time to share something great. The six only need die because they've each chosen a different a-hole they think they need to help bang the queen. So long as the reality is deadset on them "needing to die" the only acceptable outcome is going to be making everything unacceptable.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Go read and comment on the Farm boy thread please
Been talking about Rual america and why they are voting for Trump in record numbes

 

[Gori the Grey]

Fair enough. Back to the polls. Why haven't we talked about that one out of Florida that shows 28% of early-voting Republicans voting for Clinton?

MSNBC was all over it last night. Seems like a huge story, if it's accurate.

 

[Lexicus]

Hmm, I just thought of something - Republicans being ashamed or afraid to say they support Trump has been a meme for a while now. But what about Republicans ashamed or afraid to say they actually support Hillary?

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Ugh, there was an article about that very thing today, but now I can't for the life of me remember which publication wrote it. Basically, Republicans who are supporting Hillary have been pretty quiet, although I guess the anger one might have towards them depends on how much one respects their desire to hold onto their position by not being loud about a principled stand. Which is probably not something we should have to consider, but politics are awesome.

 

[Bootstoots]

If that's true and larger than any shy Trump effect, it could lead to a substantial polling miss in which the race isn't close at all. I'm looking forward to finding out which side has the shier voters.

edit: On the other hand, there have been several new NH polls with ties or slight Trump leads, which is not a good sign at this point. NH is part of Clinton's inner fortress; even losing its 4 EVs could greatly reduce her odds of winning if FL and NC don't come through. It seems to be one of the most elastic Dem-leaning swing states, up there with CO.

 

[Archbob]

Fair enough. Back to the polls. Why haven't we talked about that one out of Florida that shows 28% of early-voting Republicans voting for Clinton?

MSNBC was all over it last night. Seems like a huge story, if it's accurate.

I brought this up yesterday, Clinton is up big to NC and OH as well according to early exit polls. No one seems to want to talk about those things.

 

[Camikaze]

Apparently she's not doing that well in early voting when compared to Obama in 2012. In particular, black voter turnout is quite a bit lower, which isn't a great sign for North Carolina, and is why Obama has been deployed there. Given Obama lost NC by 2 points in 2012, not doing as well as him is not the best sign, and certainly not unmitigated good news to be pointing at.

 

[Kyriakos]

The Voice from the Vortex whispers "Come my way." (Charybdis is part Siren in this version of the story.) "The six of you who think Scylla will grab you, you're the real Ithacans. It's those other of your crewmates that are the problem. You know, the darker skinned ones. I'll drown them."

And the Voice from the Vortex will deliver on that promise. It will drown them. But only because it will drown everyone. It's a vortex. Drowning is what it does.

The only way forward does involve loss. There are six who can't be saved. It is the most pitiful scene that these eyes have looked on.

The story illustrates with great precision the reality it seeks to illuminate.

Actually, Charybdis is herself utterly dark skinned

Moreover, let's not forget that people could also opt to not have to choose between certain death of at least 6 (cause if the crew doesn't move the ship fast enough, Scylla will return for another 6), or certain death of all (Charybdis), and try to go the other way, which just has the moving rocks which only Argo had passed. Yet Circe informs Odysseus that there is no possibility his ship will do what Jason's ship did, cause not a powerful enough god is there to help him.
Again, the crew is really kept in the dark, and remember that if Odysseus had told them about Scylla they would be so afraid that they likely would just be unable to row after the first attack, which would place Odysseus ultimately at risk as well

Ultimately, as said, all of the crew will die (due to their own fault), after killing the oxen of Helios Hyperion. And Odysseus will end up in the island of Calypso, where he pretty much just has sex for 7 years, until he recalls he wants to return to Ithaka.