[RD] US 2016 election: Poll watching thread

[Zkribbler]

Gori and I are expecting some sort of health crisis.

Bone spurs in his feet?

 

[Gori the Grey]

Bone spurs in his feet?

Won't cut it this time. But it's the precedent for his using medial excuses to get out of unappealing situations.

I would think that any health issue would surface about the time that his loss is looking to be embarrassing ( say down 20% in the polls). If his "health" prevents him from continuing to be a candidate beginning in, say mid September, then he can lose without shame.

.

The trigger is an electoral map that looks worse than Romney's, who choked like a dog, that I can tell you. We're already there if the poll numbers hold for a while.

A health scare would be extremely out of character for Trump, whose narcissism has famously extended to his physical condition/health, e.g. through his compulsive need to hit back at suggestions his hands might be small, and his doctor releasing a statement saying he's the healthiest candidate in the country's history. If he were forced out due to a health crisis, Trump's pride would be hit - he would see it as there being something wrong with him, rather than as there being something wrong with everyone else. This is why the more likely scenario, and the one that he's already actively pursuing, is to delegitimise Clinton's victory, i.e. reframing a loss into a win, if it weren't for the corrupt system.

There's some truth in this. His lab reports have been declared astonishingly excellent. But he can't blame a landslide on rigging.

Does he have no professional pride at all?

None. By the way. Here's how it will happen. He'll be visiting one of his golf courses in the middle east. We'll learn that his family, in their frenzy, drove him to the nearest facility that came up on GPS as a medical facility, not realizing it was just an old age home. But now that he's comfortably settled there we don't want to risk transferring him to a regular hospital. This is when we'll learn that his physician has been traveling with him on the campaign trail. It is he who will announce the stroke. The best specialists are being flown in from New York until he can be flown back to Trump Tower.

Many will doubt the truth of the report and suspect him weaseling out. Even his fanboyz, but they'll regard it in the staged-but-"true" light of a WWE plot development.

But enough of a hijack of this thread by my crack pot theories. Back to poll watching.

 

[Zkribbler]

Nate Silver is increasing Hillary's predicted win Trump
83-17% chances of winning election.
351-186 EV

Hillary's chances of winning Arizona's 11 EVs are 48.9%
Hillary's chances of winning Georgia's 16 EVs are 47.7%
Hillary's chances of winning South Carolina's 9 EVs are 37%
Hillary's chances of winning Texas's 38 EVs are 25.9%

Hillary's chances of winning by a landslide are 31.2%

 

[Arakhor]

That's impressive. It's still a long time until November though.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I imagine that medical records are private, especially for presidents, let alone 'normal' people, so I don't see any real way his doctor could know that. Does he have no professional pride at all?

He'd rather show us his tiny hands than his tax returns.

I keep thinking that Trump will change is public behavior and pull out of this dive in the polls. How can he not see what he is doing? It makes me think it is all deliberate.

 

[Arakhor]

It does seem rather farcical that a man could be this consistently incompetent and yet still prosper (after a fashion) in business the way he has.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

It does seem rather farcical that a man could be this consistently incompetent and yet still prosper (after a fashion) in business the way he has.

The old saying "it takes money to make money" would be better said "if you have money it's almost impossible not to make money." I seriously doubt that there are many people in America who could start a business with a million dollars in cash and not make money at it. And property management is probably the easiest way to do it.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Add Frank Lavin, who served in the administration of Ronald Reagan as well as both Bush administrations, to the list of Republicans endorsing Clinton. Best quote:

The depressing truth of the Republican nominee is that Donald Trump talks a great game but he is the emperor who wears no clothes.

Sorry, wrong thread, that wasn't about polls...

To make up, CBS news poll today puts Clinton up by 12 points in Virginia.

 

[Gori the Grey]

It does seem rather farcical that a man could be this consistently incompetent and yet still prosper (after a fashion) in business the way he has.

He's had so much business success
That he must be intelligent, yes?
No, it seems that the gains
Some achieve with good brains
Can be wrested through sheer ruthlessness.

I've heard some analysts say that of he'd invested his dad's money in an index fund, he'd be wealthier today than he is, that he's underperformed the market.

 

[Zkribbler]

That's impressive. It's still a long time until November though.

IMHO, Trump's last remaining chance is to win the debates...or maybe to Swiftboat Hillary in October.

 

[Arakhor]

I've heard some analysts say that of he'd invested his dad's money in an index fund, he'd be wealthier today than he is, that he's underperformed the market.

Maybe that's what he's embarrassed about in his non-existent tax returns? Or maybe he's covering up something illegal, immoral or fattening.

 

[metalhead]

My guess is that his tax return would show that his income is a modest salary from the Trump Organization, essentially a salary to stay the hell away from actually managing anything - and various media residuals and such. Either that or his income was negative from poor performance of his company.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Maybe that's what he's embarrassed about in his non-existent tax returns? Or maybe he's covering up something illegal, immoral or fattening.

The tax returns exist; he just hasn't released them. Sorry to be a pedant, but in insisting that he do so, one has to insist on his agency: he could do this if he just wanted to.

Again, the Dem's winning line on this is just to keep pounding it. As I've said before, they need to just say "Well, he's hiding something. Maybe it's that he's not as rich as he says he is. Maybe it's that he's paid zero taxes. Maybe it's that he's made zero charitable contributions or taken for himself money designed for charitable causes. Maybe it's that he has compromising business relations with the Russians. Who knows? But he's said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and his followers wouldn't abandon him. So whatever it is, he must think it's worse than that.

 

[metalhead]

It wouldn't hurt his candidacy as much as it would destroy the value of his brand.

Trump's tax returns would likely prove that he is neither a billionaire nor a successful businessman. That would totally undercut his bid to be president, but the mere fact that he is Donald Trump seems to be doing that trick already. Trump parlayed a few early successes into being what he always wanted to be - a media star. That stardom is built on the notion that Trump is successful in business. If it comes out that he isn't, then he turns into nothing more than a national joke.

I'm sure it's lost on his supporters, but Trump's criticism of the media is incredibly ironic when you consider he would be nothing without them.

 

[Gori the Grey]

I saw a clip yesterday of him saying "and CNN. It's like all Trump, all the time." He meant tearing him down, I suppose, but he didn't say that. And he seemed unaware that the thing he was complaining about was the very thing he loves most.

 

[SupremacyKing2]

According to 538, Trump only has a 4.7% of winning:

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

The new Monmouth poll today was brutal to Trump. No drop yet in Clinton's bounce. It still seems silly to not expect some tightening. But it also still appears that Clinton is a significant favourite.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That map doesn't consider the new never Trump Republican candidate. He will probably tip every red state where he gets on the ballot to Clinton.

 

[metalhead]

He can only get on in a handful of states. His sole purpose would appear to be to deny Trump Utah.

 

[Zkribbler]

... he's said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and his followers wouldn't abandon him. So whatever it is, he must think it's worse than that.

Oh snap!


Nate Silver has just flipped his predictions for Arizona and Georgia to blue and bumped Hilllary's predicted win up by 3 1/2%.

86.5-13.5% chances of winning election.
362-176 EV

Hillary's chances of winning South Carolina's 9 EVs are 41%
Hillary's chances of winning Missoui's 10 EVs are 34.5%
Hillary's chances of winning Texas's 38 EVs are 29.6%

Hillary's chances of winning by a landslide are 36%