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US Dem Primary going forward (stat projection)

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by JerichoHill, Feb 13, 2008.

  1. Till

    Till Adventurer

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    The data from post 34 was from realclearpolitics though, was is not? Anyway, thanks for all the info in this thread! It certainly beats the lousy coverage the primaries get in the media over here.
     
  2. AVN

    AVN Chieftain

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    As I understand it, the polls didn't predict Obama's big win yesterday. Even not the polls a few days before this primary. And it seems that this has been the case quite a number of times during the democratic campaign.

    Is there a good explanation for the failures of those polls ?
     
  3. The Yankee

    The Yankee The New Yawker Retired Moderator

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    Failure to account for turnout? If the younger voters are voting in greater numbers, they may also be underrepresented in polls, not just because they don't have the voting track record that they usually look for, but also because a lot of them do not have the land lines that polling places still rely on.
     
  4. Stolen Rutters

    Stolen Rutters Chieftain

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    JH mentioned something earlier (or was it the other thread) about some of the poll methods are underrepresenting independent voters in open Democrat primaries

    (i.e. Pollers would adjust the results based on which group is historically a "likely voter" and use those modified results to make predictions that should be more accurate, since not everyone who answers your poll will actually make it out and vote... except the "not so likely voters" seem to have been voting in big numbers all year).

    That's a good explanation to me. (Maybe not the whole answer, but it's good enough for me.)
     
  5. RulerOfDaPeople

    RulerOfDaPeople Chieftain

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    Who needs to chill? All I said is that I'd like to see more substance from the media rather than just a horse race. I appreciate your stats and info, but you've been becoming increasingly overbearing and pushy lately and it is very much not appreciated.
     
  6. Mark1031

    Mark1031 Chieftain

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    Barring a major screw up I think Obama will WIN OH and TX outright. Forget the polls for a moment. There are still 2-weeks to go and with the press on the difficulty of Hillary having any real path to catch up and Obama's $$ and energy advantage he will put her away. And Dems should begin to realize this is the best thing for the party. I am confident enough at this point that the big O is the nominee that I have changed my avatar.
     
  7. JerichoHill

    JerichoHill Bedrock of Knowledge

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    Yes, those pictures were. The data that I use for projections is on an Access Database linked up a very large database of demographical statistics, crime statistics, education, voting behavior, etc. One reason why I love my job.
     
  8. Norseone

    Norseone Chieftain

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    Mark, Obama has the nomination lined up. Now you just have to figure out how to energize the dejected Hillary supporters...its goona be a tough November.
     
  9. JerichoHill

    JerichoHill Bedrock of Knowledge

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    Ruler, this is a stats thread. That's it. Your wishes on coverage should be in another thread.

    Norse, exit polls show that a good many Hillary supporters also like Obama and would not feel unhappy if he was the nominee. I think the number I saw was 45%. For the Obama supporters, something like 20% would not feel unhappy if Hillary was the nominee. The danger in this primary was the potential alienation of black voters if they felt Obama unjustly lost this nomination. Not so much with any clinton voters


    Why are the turnout models off? The likely culprits are that the likely voter model is flawed and that they're not adjusting turnout estimates to account for all the new voters. How were they to know starting off the season that this would happen

    Election projection works like this.

    First, figure out how certain slices of demographics will vote. Some polling firms slice them up into small groups, others keep them rather large.

    Then, use historical records to figure out how those groups typically turn out to vote.

    Combine them together and you get projections.
     
  10. mrt144

    mrt144 Chieftain

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    Hillary nomination to the supreme court? ;)
     
  11. ravensfire

    ravensfire Member of the Opposition

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    Just before I left my house for a volleyball match, CNN called Wisconsin for Obama. When I got back and saw the margin, I was pretty shocked. I was expecting a 3-4% win, NOT the much larger number that happened. Hillary's putting on a good face (and apparently did call Obama to congratulate him this time), but her speeches are starting to get a more desperate tone to them.

    -- Ravensfire
     
  12. Godwynn

    Godwynn March to the Sea

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    No one has probably ever asked you this ID since you are very smart and knowledgeable.

    But my God, is that story true? The Richmond mayor is correct, there would be riots across Chicago once again.

    Probably (and hopefully) Carbondale too.
     
  13. Trajan12

    Trajan12 Chieftain

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    Yet another eff democracy statement from the Hillary Campaign. She really wants to win...
     
  14. Mark1031

    Mark1031 Chieftain

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    The idea of poaching pledged delegates is silly make news stuff. Hillary needs to maintain some semblance of a possible path to the nomination. What magical powers could she have over Obama’s closest and most loyal supporters (ie his pledged delegates) to get them to switch? Answer:None.
     
  15. cubsfan6506

    cubsfan6506 Got u

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    80% of dems are satisfied with Obama. Saw it on cnn. Compared with 72% of republicans.
     
  16. Irish Caesar

    Irish Caesar Yellow Jacket

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    I don't think Sen. Clinton would be to blame if this were to decide the nomination: the pledged delegates have a signed pledge that they will support the candidate they are backing. Although Hillary would not be well-liked if this changed the outcome of the convention, the true scum is the delegate who reneged on a signed pledge.
     
  17. cubsfan6506

    cubsfan6506 Got u

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    My riots will be bigger then you're riots.
     
  18. RulerOfDaPeople

    RulerOfDaPeople Chieftain

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    Come join us in Denver to for the Democrat National Convention! It'll be a riot!

    [/tv commercial parody]
     
  19. Godwynn

    Godwynn March to the Sea

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    I would hope so, Cook county has 48.5% of this state's population.
     
  20. cubsfan6506

    cubsfan6506 Got u

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    Cook county is massive it contains a ton of suburbs to.
     

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