US Economy added no jobs in August

[Integral]

BLS report
Relevant excerpt:

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- AUGUST 2011


Nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged (0) in August, and the unemployment
rate held at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment in most major industries changed little over the month. Health
care continued to add jobs, and a decline in information employment reflected
a strike. Government employment continued to trend down, despite the return
of workers from a partial government shutdown in Minnesota.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons, at 14.0 million, was essentially unchanged
in August, and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent. The rate has shown
little change since April. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (8.9
percent), adult women (8.0 percent), teenagers (25.4 percent), whites
(8.0 percent), blacks (16.7 percent), and Hispanics (11.3 percent) showed
little or no change in August. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.1 percent,
not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
about unchanged at 6.0 million in August and accounted for 42.9 percent of the
unemployed. (See table A-12.)

The labor force rose to 153.6 million in August. Both the civilian labor force
participation rate, at 64.0 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at
58.2 percent, were little changed. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.4 million to 8.8
million in August. These individuals were working part time because their
hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
(See table A-8.)

In addition, GDP growth last quarter was revised downwards from 1.3% (already really bad) to 1.0% (even worse).

National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2011 (second estimate)
Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2011 (preliminary estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2011,
(that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available
for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.3
percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

Bottom line: the economy's not getting any better.

The hole in GDP:


This is why we need QE3 and a jobs program.

 

[MobBoss]

This could hurt Obama politically.

 

[Leoreth]

Unfortunately the political deadlock will prevent you from doing anything about it.

 

[Cutlass]

I think QE3 will happen. I think a jobs program will not. Politics is not answering to reality and public needs these days.

 

[civver_764]

These days?

 

[Cutlass]

It really is different from even 10 years ago.

 

[GamezRule]

Ironic that even though Republicans were blaming Obama for the weak economy since January 21, 2009, now they have some power and things are getting even worse.

 

[Artifis]

This could hurt Obama politically.

Understatement of the century.

 

[Ayatollah So]

This is why we need QE3 and a jobs program.

Of course a jobs program will be DOA because it goes against Republican ideology, and because of what MobBoss said. Woulda been nice if Obama had been less timid back in 2009, but that's just who he is. Asking for audacity is like asking for rice to stop being white. The Fed's timidity, however, is more mysterious.

This could hurt Obama politically.

This is gonna spank him so hard it will even Downtown will feel the pain. The other architects of this disaster, both on Wall St and in Congress, will mostly get off scot-free.

 

[kronic]

So, how much is GDP off from the trend now? 10 %? Maybe it's time to think about a new trend.

I don't think these bad figures really show how bad things really are. Based on what happened to previous estimates in the past few years, we'll see more downward revisions in the following weeks and months.

 

[Bestbank Tiger]

The Fed's timidity, however, is more mysterious.

Insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results.

 

[Orka]

I don't think QE3 will be particularly effective this time around. Corporations already have plenty of money; but the problem is lack of demand, not lack of credit. QE3 would help a little but could be offset by the higher inflation. Remember that QE2 was undertaken in part because of fears of deflation.

A stimulus is what we need, but probably won't be coming.

 

[GenMarshall]

This could hurt Obama politically.

For the first time, I agree...

...and the world trembles as MobBoss and myself agree on something!

 

[Cutlass]

It's not that QE3 is all that likely to be effective, as it's the only damned thing left. With Congress fubar, there's QE or just accept stagnation.

 

[GamezRule]

If QE3 really is as dangerous as it appears, stagnation might be the better option.

 

[Cutlass]

QE3 isn't really dangerous at all. Stagnation, on the other hand, is. The worst that could happen with QE3, and it's not by any means certain, is another bubble. But a bubble at least revs up the economy. The second worse thing that could happen is a couple of years of somewhat higher than desirable inflation. But that would actually make things better off in the long run. Because one of the major reasons that the economy is not getting better is excessive debt loads. And inflation makes that weaker.

Stagnation, on the other hand, means that a lot of people are going to have to accept permanently lower standards of living. And the nation would be decades recovering from it. It is a far worse fate for the average American.

 

[BasketCase]

I don't think QE3 will be particularly effective this time around. Corporations already have plenty of money; but the problem is lack of demand, not lack of credit.

The problem is a good deal more complicated than that. Corporations are sitting on the money which they have plenty of, and not spending it, because they do not intend to end up where the Big Three auto companies ended up. Corporations have to keep their own cash reserves because the banks are scared to lend to people. QE3 will not "fix" this. Nothing can fix this except loosening up the banks--which is not going to happen because the banks don't want to end up where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac did.

QE3 is not going to happen, and wouldn't fix the problem even if it did happen.

 

[kochman]

QE3 isn't really dangerous at all. Stagnation, on the other hand, is. The worst that could happen with QE3, and it's not by any means certain, is another bubble. But a bubble at least revs up the economy.

Great thinking!
Bubble 1 - Tech Bubble... bursts, economy slides downhill, Bush and gang create Bubble 2 - Housing/Investing Bubble... it, as all bubbles do, bursts, to way worse effects...
Possible answer? Another bubble... the Government Spending Bubble...
And what happens when this one bursts?

 

[amadeus]

QE IV, with Federal Reserve chairman Ivan Drago.

 

[Ayatollah So]

I don't think QE3 will be particularly effective this time around. Corporations already have plenty of money

Small businesses don't. I agree that QE3 is likely to have little effect (especially if it's as small as QE2). But the Fed could and should also change the interest rate it pays banks on their excess reserves from +0.25% to something negative. That would help a little. Admittedly, not enough, but Congress is too insane to provide any fiscal stimulus, and Obama isn't the guy that could rally the public to change Congressional minds. Like Cutlass said, the Fed is all we have left.