Afflicted with reason
- Jul 6, 2002
- next to George Bush's parents
Is there anyone here from VA who can explain why it was so close there? Gillespie wasn't supposed to have any chance, yet he came within 15k of winning.
I saw this discussion elsewhere.
To attempt to get some sanity into the madness that has filtered in, sure, I'll take a shot at it. Three reasons, IMO:
- Turnout level was lower in the DC suburbs; driving down critical D votes.
- Polls consistently underestimated GOP power in the Senate races; not only did Gillaspie over-perform relative to polls, many other GOP candidates did, like Perdue, Tillis, and even Roberts. Who, frankly, didn't deserve what he got.
- Polling in VA overpolled heavy Dem areas. I believe both Nate and RedState had separate blurbs on this.
I didn't follow this campaign too closely but a lot of the talking heads said Gillespie ran with a tangible platform of ideas. Maybe that helped him some too.
Good point. Many have added that Warner hit the cruise control button too early, too.
That last one is big, given that everyone acknowledges polling bias covered Republican strength.