war calc

[freddyfear]

I can't seem to get a grip on this, have to ask:
When I'm trying to anticipate the outcome of a fight I look at the given stats. But too often the outcome isn't as predicted. Like: One Chariot with +1 Strength +1 Melee (25%) is parked on a tile with a farm, getting attacked by a barbarian Axeman with no bonuses, and still I loose (Calculation should say something like 15/5 in my favor). This should mean there is some heavy dice- work at hand here, but I can't figure out how much the stats count for and how much Luck counts. Anyone know?

 

[Fleme]

Random number generator is just that, random. Consider a situation where the odds are 75% in your favor - out of a large sample you will win roughly 75% of those battles but that still means that 25% of the time you will lose.

Heck, there have been those 0,01% losses and that's one in a thousand but they still occur.

 

[Welsh_Insomniac]

I can't seem to get a grip on this, have to ask:
When I'm trying to anticipate the outcome of a fight I look at the given stats. But too often the outcome isn't as predicted. Like: One Chariot with +1 Strength +1 Melee (25%) is parked on a tile with a farm, getting attacked by a barbarian Axeman with no bonuses, and still I loose (Calculation should say something like 15/5 in my favor). This should mean there is some heavy dice- work at hand here, but I can't figure out how much the stats count for and how much Luck counts. Anyone know?

This just reminds me of the video on youtube where Sid Meier is giving a lecture on how players complain when losing 3 to 1 odds

 

[freddyfear]

Right, I didn't realise it was just a percentage chance to win. I though 15/5 ment I was 3 times as strong as the oponent and thus should win.
Thank you, this has caused me a great deal of frustration in my Civ career, now I understand why I have lost so many battes I was sure to win.

 

[DaveMcW]

Chariots only get their axeman bonus when attacking.

 

[Ghpstage]

I can't seem to get a grip on this, have to ask:
When I'm trying to anticipate the outcome of a fight I look at the given stats. But too often the outcome isn't as predicted. Like: One Chariot with +1 Strength +1 Melee (25%) is parked on a tile with a farm, getting attacked by a barbarian Axeman with no bonuses, and still I loose (Calculation should say something like 15/5 in my favor). This should mean there is some heavy dice- work at hand here, but I can't figure out how much the stats count for and how much Luck counts. Anyone know?

Where does you 15/5 value come from?
If your including the +100% against Axemen then it would cause a very wrong number! That +100% only applies if the Chariot is atttacking the Axe not the other way around. Aside from that where is the underlined +1 Strength coming from? is it Combat 1? If so that isn't close to +1 strength.

 

[freddyfear]

Thank you Ghp, I think I got my question answered without you dissecting my numbers. Lets just say I'm no hardcore Civ'er, still stuck on Noble...

BTW: These bonuses, how can I tell if it's a def or off bonus?

 

[AutomatedTeller]

well, that's 5 on 5.4, which is about a 68% of victory, not 15/5.

basically, there's a series of combat rounds and you have a chance of winning each round and you take damage if you lose. it's quite possible to lose multiple rounds in a row and lose the combat.

I just lost a CII knight attacking a horsearcher - something like 96% odds.

it happens.

 

[joanne]

In addition to Fleme's explanation, chariots have 100% bonus vs. axemen but only when attacking(in Warlords & BTS I think). The chances of winning displayed when you mouseover an enemy unit with one of your units selected only shows the odds of your unit winning against the enemy unit when attacking - in your case your chariot was defending, so it didn't get the 100% attack bonus, therefore its chance of winning defensively were far less than displayed for when attacking.

EDIT: xpost

 

[Ghpstage]

Thank you Ghp, I think I got my question answered without you dissecting my numbers. Lets just say I'm no hardcore Civ'er, still stuck on Noble...

BTW: These bonuses, how can I tell if it's a def or off bonus?

Just look at the units tooltip or the civilopedia, in the case of Chariots the Axeman bonus is written as "+100% Attack vs Axemen", similarly City Raider is exlained as "+20% City Attack" and Woodsman has "+20 forest defence".
Other things like Cover or Shoick apply only to a unit type and works whether its attackign or defending i.e. "+25% vs Melee"

The calculations are actually quite counterintuitive even when you know which bonuses are in effect, a full explanation can be found here. Be warned it is pretty math heavy.

 

[VoiceOfUnreason]

well, that's 5 on 5.4, which is about a 68% of victory, not 15/5.

+10% bonus vs barbarians -> 5 vs 5.8. A little better than 70% on defense.


Post facto, you can consult the combat log to see which bonuses were actually applied in a given combat (so long as there haven't been too many other combats after that - the log buffer is not infinite).

 

[Derakon]

I just lost a CII knight attacking a horsearcher - something like 96% odds.

I lost a 99.6% fight against a barbarian axeman once. Then I sent out my second garrison unit to kill the now-injured axeman, and lost at 99.9% odds.

I was just a bit peeved.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

forgot about barb bonus.