innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
- Messages
- 15,241
Seen this argument presented many times by many people. Don't get it.
Israel will be fine. This argument seems to rest on "people don't like Israel and therefore they will fail", or something. Been said for almost 100 years, they're still there.
Seems a pretty common opinion though. Pretty dangerous one, too. Sinwar seemed amongst those that thought just push and it'll collapse, some grand coalition forming against it, its allies in the West casting it aside. It is not so.
No. The argument is bases on what is visibly going on.
Israel is the zionist state. Its founding principle and raision d'être, because it never changed from it, is to be the safe space for jews. If that changes they may be a polity called Israel for a while more still, but the national project will have failed. Then the zionists might as well have admitted defeat and let the politty move to the "single state solution" and have had peace decades ago.
The zionists won a few wars and sold themselves as local agents to the biggest empire in the world as servants. They then though they could have it all, greater Israel, and in their hubris annexed the west bank and Gaza, and attempted the annexation of southern Lebannon. This escalation, which made sure that Israel was locked in permanent hostility with the broader regions, would only work so long as Israel remained the sole regional power, the big bully everyone feared or, if war happened, that could defeat any adversary quickly. Hostility but no war or only brief and victorious wars, it looked safe enough.
But military occupation over hostile populations failed in the early 1990s, and that failure was confirmed in 2006. Rabin was no peace-loving dove, he moved towards an attempt and peace because he say disaster coming otherwise. Sharon, the war criminal, no one would think a dove. But he backed off Lebannon and partially disengaged from Gaza. He too could see the failure of the project coming, and would (as Rabin) save a smaller zionist state if he could. Then he went into a coma and the current idiot, whom Sharon has shoved aside as a dangerous fool, got back on the driver's seat with the (now obvious) insanity of Greater Israel as an aim. God, it appears (if you believe one), was not with Israel.
The current crazy PM's actions since have made sure that peace is now impossible. Too much bad blood. And that Israel is locked into a never-ending attritional war, not just within (where it attemps, without achieving, a genocide as a final solution on the internal front) but with the whole region. Northern Israel is now off-limits, the settlers there evacuated south. The missile exchanges with Iran made it clear to everyone in the region that Israel cannot defend itself against missiles, there is now a "balance of devastation" in the event of a big war. That makes a big, decisive war either impossible or suicidal. But that was the kind of war Israel has relied on to be the regional hegemon, the only kind it know how to win. The kind of war that had scared off continued armed resistance against its occupation and attacks against its neighbours. Prevented from escalating to a decisive war (that would require using nukes anyway), it means the attritional war will continue and continue. That means the zionist project, the safe space for jews, has failed. The state ideology has ailed. And there is nothing to replace it with because the current crazy PM burnt all bridges to peace.
The regional resistance against Israel is winning the war as it goes now. Despite the human cost. If the war continues long enough Israel collapses. It can be propped up only by US transfers of weapons and financial support and imports of every kind as Israel's economy falters. But that means giving up on the status of ally and becoming a mere military outpost, to be used or evacuated according to the needs of the empire it is part of. And the empire is wakening. The US's east of Suez moment is coming, no one thinks otherwise: look at the diplomatic raligments of so many countries in the region. At any rate Israel the state, Israel the safe home for jews, will be longer worth fighting for because it is no longer. Israelis will eveacuate, or perforce adapt to a different political reality. The writing, as the scriptures said, is on the wall.
The current war is the more evil, the more unjust, as is is a lost war for Israel. Pure waste.