No one would accuse Hamas leaders of being the first to make a strategic miscalculation of epic proportions in the Middle East. After all, from
Napoleon to former U.S. President George W. Bush, the region’s history is strewn with the calling cards of leaders whose ambitions turned to disaster.
Even so, the collapse of Syria’s Assad family dynasty — a more than half-century-old enterprise of brutality, repression and corruption — places Hamas’ plans to reshape the Middle East in firm contention for the title of (
to paraphrase another contender, Iraq’s former dictator Saddam Hussein) the Mother of all Miscalculations.
Hamas did mean to cause regional upheaval. But surely, the last thing it wanted was to trigger the unraveling of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” Israel’s encirclement engineered by Iran. Yet that’s exactly what it did.
Shortly after the Oct. 7 rampage — or the “big project” as Hamas called it — one of its leaders explained to the New York Times that the goal was to “
change the entire equation and not just have a clash” with Israel. And indeed, the entire equation has now changed, just not in the way Hamas intended.
Obtained by news organizations, detailed minutes of the militant group’s planning meetings describe
the deliberations that took place during its secret stages. Later dubbed the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” the plan aimed to bring in Iran’s network of proxies, along with Palestinians across Israel, the West Bank and other Arab countries, to start a renewed perennial war against Israel.
Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy that had become
the most powerful player in Lebanon and a crucial element in Iran’s international network, provided Hamas with support in this, although it seemed less than wholehearted. Even so, it ended up costing Hezbollah dearly, just as it later did Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.
The documents also show a perfunctory comment by Yahya Sinwar, the group’s then leader in the enclave, saying ordinary Gazans would face sacrifices. Similarly, in a television interview, exiled Hamas leader Ghazi Hamad explained that Palestinians are “
proud to sacrifice martyrs.” And unsurprisingly, the only part of Hamas’ project that unfolded as expected was the calamity that befell the Palestinians of Gaza.
Initially, however, the operation succeeded beyond Sinwar’s wildest dreams. Oct. 7 was a catastrophe for Israel, the deadliest day since the Holocaust for the Jewish people. And Israel has undoubtedly paid a high price in diplomacy and reputation in the wake of its ferocious response to the attack.
And yet, Hamas’ decision resulted in much greater devastation — human, strategic and political — to its own side.
Israel’s furious counterattack has left Gaza in ruins and crushed Hamas into a faint remnant of its former self. And the tsunami triggered by Oct. 7 hasn’t stopped sweeping the region since.
A few days after the attacks, Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif urged Palestinians in Jerusalem, Jaffa, Haifa and across the West Bank to join in the fight, telling them to
“kill, burn, destroy…” But no such uprising occurred, and
Deif himself was killed by Israel last summer — as were most of Hamas’ leaders, including Sinwar, the mastermind of the attack.
Sinwar was killed in Gaza two months ago, shortly after the group’s exiled leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the
stunning explosion of an Iranian government guesthouse in Tehran. Only hours earlier, at the inauguration of the Islamic Republic’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian, the two had clasped their hands in the air, conspicuously reaffirming their partnership. But by then, Iran’s dominance over several Arab countries was already facing disaster.
In solidarity with Hamas, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah had started launching rockets at Israel on Oct. 8, vowing keep going as long as the war continued. Israel, meanwhile, demanded an end to the bombing so that tens of thousands of displaced Israelis could return to their homes. Then, one day in mid-September 2024, in an operation that seemed like crude science fiction, the
pagers of Hezbollah fighters started exploding, maiming hundreds across Lebanon. Their walkie-talkies blew up next.
It wasn’t just Hezbollah’s equipment that was infiltrated either. Day after day,
Israel bombed the meeting places of the Shiite militia’s top echelons. And on Sept. 27, an Israeli strike in Beirut
killed Nasrallah, the man who had led Hezbollah for more than 30 years.
Under Nasrallah’s leadership, and later with Russia’s support,
Hezbollah had saved Assad from his own people in a raging civil war. He had worked to establish pro-Iran militias in Iraq, build the Houthis in Yemen and, above all, turned his group into one of the most important component of Iran’s anti-Israel strategy.
The mightiest of Tehran’s proxies, the group seemingly guaranteed that if Israel tried to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations, its vast arsenal could be unleashed against the Jewish state.
But Israel killed Nasrallah, followed by his
presumed successor Hashem Safieddine and then, among other top leaders, Hezbollah’s military commander Ibrahim Akil, who was
wanted by the U.S. in connection with the 1983 bombing of its Beirut embassy. Hezbollah’s top echelons were essentially destroyed, along with much of its deadly arsenal.
So, with thousands of Hezbollah fighters injured or dead, the group’s leadership decimated, and Russia — Assad’s other patron — tangled up in another conflict, unlikely to forcefully come to his aide, rebels in Syria saw their moment.
There was no one left to defend Assad, and the offensive took less than two weeks. The Syrian leader had to flee, and the Alawite regime he inherited — built by his father Hafez Assad more than 50 years ago — quickly crumbled.
Who could have imagined that the Oct. 7 attacks would end in the collapse of the Assad regime, the death of Nasrallah, the defanging (at least for now) of Hezbollah, the collapse of much of Iran’s ability to project power across the Middle East and the
humiliation of Russia as its protégé became a political refugee and Moscow’s ability to project power in the region was crippled?
Alas, nobody knows what’s next for the region.
Nerves are on edge. It’s too soon for anyone to confidently declare anything like a lasting victory. The aftermath of Hamas’ monumental miscalculation is yet another Middle East lesson in the law of unexpected consequences.