Indeed, any appeal to "tribal resentments" between Hutu and Tutsi to explain the Rwandan genocide also needs to explain why Burundi didn't see a genocide and stayed at the level of mass killings and upheavals
I was kinda busy earlier, engaged in convo and couldn't quite get around to a more in depth reply right then.
IMO, you need willingness from both the political leadership and a groundswell of support to conduct genocide, and the two rarely line up. You seem focused on the former, while I highlight the latter, and here I would note both seem needed.
I'm not gonna pretend to be as familiar with that genocide as you are, but from your post, you have identified political circumstances that flashed the greenlight for political leadership in Rwanda(briefly mentioning elsewhere different ones were present in Burundi) here
Thus, the genocide came about because the Hutu Power hardliners in the MRND saw it as a way to neatly resolve their two problems: kill all the "moderates" and Hutu traitors in the political elite, and wipe out the threat of a Tutsi "fifth column"
You're speaking of what is needed for the leadership to act, I'm focused on the base, when of course, both are necessary.
In the case of Hamas, what seems to me to have occurred is that foreign money deliberately promoted extreme religious voices amongst that base, raising them up(and before anyone wants to jump in, I'm aware of evidence Netanyahu allowed this to occur, something he now, I imagine, regrets). This isn't detached to me from the general Saudi policy of funding extreme preachers involved in education and religious life, long pursued, which, even if not done here by the Saudis directly, seems to have provided the blueprint for hardline Islamist thinkers to increase their wider societal influence in Gaza, amongst other places.
This has been successfully pursued in Gaza to the extent that both the base and the leadership appear aligned, synchronized and snowballing well past genocidal intent towards Israel and Israelis. Signs are there. There's the dehumanizing rhetoric, tolerance of both their own suffering and additionally, a willingness to inflict extreme violence in questionable ways.
The Israelis, I'm sure, are well aware of those facts. Sympathizers in the West imagine that actual Palestinian activism is something they'd recognize, and there are activists there that use acceptable methods and are motivated primarily by mistreatment. But it also contains much darker currents amongst the leadership(as evidenced by Haniyeh openly stating it's not about despair, but is about holy war), and this leadership has entrenched itself within the education system firmly enough for long enough that there is sufficient support on both the necessary levels, leadership and grassroots, for some really heinous things.
They just don't have the power to carry it out successfully at the moment. Sinwar appears to have pulled a Zarqawi, instigating substantial religious tension through what I believe to be intentional creation of moral horror(knowing Israel would be compelled to respond), probably concerned by increasingly close Arab-Israeli relations, something directly contrary to his goal of destruction of Israel(for which, the support of Arab militaries is a prerequisite)
I don't think it's reasonable to expect Israel to ignore that or allow it to fester longer than it has. It's a power structure that really must be broken for there to be real hope of peace in the long-term.
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