[RD] War in Ukraine: Other topics

[Birdjaguar]

The purpose of this thread is to enable folks to expand the Russian inasion of Ukraine beyond just the current news. That thread will still be for the news of the day and not change. This thread will be for selected topics and not for general opinions and bickering over who is lying. We will begin with one topic and then, if that goes well, we will expand into others. This will not be a free for all discussion thread.

Topics for this thread

1. Weapons and Tactics and how this war is changing future wars.

Moderation will similar to the Invasion thread in regards to poster behavior.
Links will be welcome but not required.
Posters may request addtional topics be added once we have some time seeing how this works in practice. New topics will be added to the OP if approved.
If we get to the point of having multiple topics, they can all exist at the same time but splitting some off might happen.

Everything is subject to change.

 

[Gedemon]

let's try this

View attachment 694441

Thought this was funny albeit we haven't seen "the tank is obsolete" takes in these threads for quite a while

armors vs drone result in evolution, not obsolescence, something will always be needed to take/hold grounds

so a video on the purpose of the "turtle tank"

and a shorter one on Ukrainians M1 Abrams customizations.

 

[saamohod]

Electricity situation in Ukraine. Power outages schedule for the place where I'm currently staying in Kyiv oblast.

Today on Wednesday only four hours of power supply are guaranteed: 7:00-9:00 and 16:00-18:00. Water supply and internet usually go down as well during the blackout period.

Similar situation in other parts of the country

 

[Broken_Erika]

Toronto address listed shipping $80M of electronics for 'Russian war machine'​

Semiconductors, electronics sourced from China and web of shell companies​

A Caribbean shell company has smuggled at least $80 million worth of electronics into Russia under the disguise of a Canadian address, according to leaked Russian trade filings obtained by CBC News.

The scheme appears to be part of a Kremlin initiative involving a covert web of multinational buyers and producers that source sanctioned technologies from Western countries, the majority of which come from Chinese stockpiles and manufacturers, to help produce weapons for Russia's war with Ukraine.

"My initial reaction was that this looked like a really egregious breach of [Canada's sanction regime]," said Jessica Davis, an Ottawa-based financial crimes expert who viewed the data and previously worked with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

"It seemed really surprising that somebody would be so blatant about facilitating these kinds of goods to Russia, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war."

Two separate sources, one from a government agency and the other an academic watchdog, provided the 2023 import data, which was then cross-referenced for its authenticity by two experts. CBC News has agreed to keep the sources confidential to protect against retribution from the Russian government.

Alburton Enterprises Inc. is one of the top Canadian entries in the trade filings and uses a suburban Toronto residence as the "supplier address" for more than 1,400 deals involving microelectronics and other computer components.

The imports show a common theme: Russian front companies shielding direct business with Chinese manufacturers to protect the flow of precious microelectronics from seizure and keep Chinese companies out of a risky venture upsetting Western business partners.

The Biden administration has repeatedly warned Beijing against supplying the Kremlin with weapons, a charge China has denied. But in recent months, China has come under fire after some of its microelectronics slipped into Russia.

Davis said using a Canadian entity like Alburton could be a way to obfuscate "scrutiny from U.S. law enforcement," because having a "Canadian address and a Canadian company can sometimes lend a veneer of legitimacy to companies doing this kind of business."

In a statement to CBC News, the RCMP, which investigates Canadian sanctions violations, said it has not laid charges relating to the export of microelectronics into Russia.

Agent for service​

While Alburton has no website or extensive online presence indicating its business or origins, Ontario government records show it was first incorporated in the British Virgin Islands in 2012 and then obtained an extra-provincial licence in 2015 to operate as a foreign business in the province.

Alburton appears to use its status as a quasi-Canadian company to buy components made by tech industry giants like Samsung, Huawei, Intel and H3C from China, Taiwan (the global leader in microchips) and Malaysia, among others.

It appears to transport them, under the Alburton banner, to one of two Moscow-based computer companies: Rubion, which says it is accredited by the Russian government, and Obltransterminal LLC, a company under U.S. sanctions for providing equipment to the Russian military.

The Ontario records named Edward Poberezkin as Alburton's agent for service, meaning an appointee responsible for receiving notarized mail on behalf of a company in Ontario. His residence is the same address on the Russian customs data.

Poberezkin helmed at least three other companies in Ontario, which also don't have websites and list his home as their address. Property records show an individual with the last name Poberezkina as the homeowner since 1998.

Poberezkin confirmed to CBC News that he was Alburton's agent for service, but said he hadn't been in contact with the company in nine years.

"My address is part of the public record, and unfortunately, I cannot control if anyone decides to use it," said Poberezkin via email, adding that he had no knowledge of the "financial or business activities" of the company. He declined multiple interview requests.

The same Ontario records detail the murky origins of Alburton in the British Virgin Islands, which has become synonymous with international money laundering, and contains incorporation documents naming Australian national Christalla Kirkillari as its first director. She is connected online with more than 360 companies worldwide and operated in Cyprus, another global hotbed for financial crimes and tax evasion, where one of her official business addresses was located.

Kirkillari, who is publicly linked with Russian business people and has at least one Moscow business address, is mentioned in more than 700 confidential documents in the Offshore Leaks, a database of secret financial and legal files shared with CBC News. The Offshore Leaks, which has a publicly facing website where Kirkillari is searchable, has linked a trail of billions in dark money to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin.

Kirkillari is a business associate of two men implicated in another recent scheme to smuggle technologies into Russia. In May, Slovak newspaper Pravda connected London businessmen Vladimir Pristoupa with Olech Tkacz and his Slovakian front company in selling software and computer components to Russian clients who subsequently supplied them to their military, which the U.S. Department of Treasury then sanctioned.

While open source records show Pristoupa and Kirkillari both worked in at least three of the same companies, all three of them are named as current or former officers at London-based Backriver Limited, which specializes in "scientific and technical activities." Backriver does not have a website.

Emails to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs about Alburton, Kirkillari and the smuggling of microelectronics into the country went unanswered.

Russia uses front companies to procure parts​

Since the dawn of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, continuous sanctions from Canada and its allies have challenged Russia's military-industrial complex. In defiance, the Kremlin has constructed shadowy global networks of middlemen buying predominantly Chinese technologies or Western technologies made in China.

In much the same way drug traffickers wash illicitly obtained currencies in a complex series of transactions to hide their movements, Russia has sourced items as simple as a semiconductor from China, unconnected to the business of war, that ends up in a glide bomb.

"We've been putting parties in third countries on our entity list who are sort of complicit in participating in the transshipment of items, and of the chips to Russia. And that includes companies in China," said Matt Axelrod, assistant secretary for export enforcement at the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Axelrod leads the Disruptive Technology Strike Force, a unit assembled one year into Russia's total invasion of Ukraine and designed to prevent in-demand electronics from ending up in enemy hands. His team has laid charges in at least 16 cases involving the illegal export of parts to Russia.

"We've also made very clear in conversations with the Chinese that this is a problem and that we need their help in making sure that we make progress on it," he said.

The Russian import data reflects the same: Alburton appears to never have purchased or sent Canadian-made technologies to Russia from Canada, but purchased components from China and other countries in the South Pacific, then shipped them to Russia using their status as a Canadian supplier.

Other open source evidence shows questionable transactions logging Alburton importing microprocessors and other electronics to Rubion in 2017 and 2023.

Other open source links point to it exporting materials with Hong Kong tech company Brukida Limited.

In an email, a director at Brukida categorically denied any involvement with Alburton and was adamant the company "has never worked with" or even "heard of Alburton" before.

"I am led to believe somebody must have deceptively used our company name in correspondence or some kind of trade documents."

Axelrod believes Russia's clandestine pursuit of microelectronics is a Kremlin directive.

"I don't think this is just individual entrepreneurs in Russia that are obtaining these parts," he said. "This is a government-sponsored … effort to procure items for the Russian war machine."

In one recent U.S court filing, the Department of Justice said the FBI was investigating the "illegal procurement of sensitive technology for the benefit of the Russian government, including its military and intelligence services."

Alburton's unknown ownership​

So who actually owns and operates Alburton?

The British Virgin Islands government requires the collection of ownership records on incorporated entities operating under its jurisdiction, but that information is publicly inaccessible.

As of March 2024, Kirkillari was still named as the director of Alburton. But after multiple CBC requests for comment that went unanswered, the directorship changed to Elmarie Ibanez, a South African national who is also mentioned in more than 700 documents in the Offshore Leaks. She and Kirkillari are listed together as former directors of the now-defunct London company Production Investment Management Ltd.

Ibanez did not return requests for comment. Email tracking software showed Kirkillari viewing the emails from CBC News at least 14 times, twice showing them being opened in an unknown location in Moscow.

CBC News asked Poberezkin multiple times to provide contacts for the owners of Alburton, as he would be required as agent for service to have that information. He never responded.

The BVI government said it complies with the U.K.'s sanctions protocols and suspected breaches are investigated by its Financial Investigation Agency, but it does "not comment on individual breach reports received."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/russian-sanctions-canada-equipment-china-1.7246038

 

[Birdjaguar]

I would bet there are many more of these companies all around the world.

 

[Ordnael]

Ukraine Is Mobilizing More Propeller Planes To Shoot Down Russian Drones, World War I Style​

Ukraine Is Mobilizing More Propeller Planes To Shoot Down Russian Drones, World War I Style

Ukraine is desperate to shoot down the dozens of Russian surveillance drones that wing over Ukrainian cities and bases with near impunity every day.

www.forbes.com

Those Ukrainian aviators dogfighting with Russian drones in their 1970s-vintage propeller plane, World War I style, seem to have inspired a movement. Now more Ukrainians are preparing to take to the sky in slow-flying prop planes—and hunt down the Russian drones buzzing over vulnerable bases and cities.

A video that circulated on social media this weekend depicts crews from the Ukrainian intelligence directorate in a locally-made Aeroprakt A-22 sport plane. A gunner in the left-side seat of the two-seat plane takes aim at a target drone with his assault rifle.

The intelligence directorate’s tactics aren’t dissimilar to the tactics developed by the crew of a Yakovlev Yak-52 training plane, apparently borrowed from a Ukrainian flying club, that has been shooting down Russian drones over southern Ukraine since mid-April. A gunner in the back seat of the Yak-52 has been firing a shotgun at the slow- and low-flying drones.

The Yak-52 crew’s methods are effective and, perhaps most importantly, inexpensive. Ukrainian forces can’t afford to fire the biggest and best air-defense missiles—which can weigh thousands of pounds and cost millions of dollars apiece—at a 33-pound Orlan-10 drone costing just $100,000. A Yak-52 or A-22 costs just a few hundred dollars an hour to operate. A few shotgun shells or rifle rounds cost almost nothing.

It should come as no surprise that the Ukrainian intelligence directorate has turned to the A-22 for drone-defense missions.

The A-22 is the kind of plane a middle-class hobby pilot might buy for fun jaunts over the local airport. “If you’re looking for a rugged aircraft that’s easy to handle, has amazing short field performance, yet is capable of cruising at 95-plus knots, while (legally) carrying a good load—you’ve come to the right place!” Arizona-based Leighnor Aircraft, which deals the A-22 in the United States, boasted on its website.
Kyiv’s forces already deploy the $90,000 A-22s in combat—as strike drones. A-22s converted for autonomous flight and packed with explosives have ranged hundreds of miles into Russia to hit military and industrial targets.

If there’s a downside to the A-22 compared to the Yak-52, it’s the former’s anemic engine. A 1,000-pound A-22’s Rotax engine generates 100 horsepower, while a 3,000-pound Yak-52’s Vedeneyev engine generates 360 horsepower. With its superior power-to-weight ratio, a Yak-52 might be better in a tight turning fight with a drone.

But any drone-killing plane is better than no drone-killing plane. Ukraine is desperate to shoot down the dozens of Russian surveillance drones that wing over Ukrainian cities and bases with near impunity every day. In a startling three days last week, Russian drones flew over Ukrainian airfields, spotting targets for Iskander ballistic missiles.

The Ukrainians lost at least three precious fighter jets in those raids—all because they couldn’t shoot down the drones before the drones located the planes on the ground.

To be fair, a dogfighting sport plane might not be the best option for protecting an active airfield. The sport plane could post a hazard to warplanes while they’re taking off and landing.

But if A-22s or other light planes can protect, say, cities in southern Ukraine, they could free up heavier ground-based air defenses to relocate to vulnerable air bases.

 

[Ordnael]

Sixty-Year-Old T-62s Are About To Become The Russian Army’s Main Tanks​

Sixty-Year-Old T-62s Are About To Become The Russian Army’s Main Tanks

Losses in Ukraine have greatly outpaced the production of new T-72s and T-90s.

www.forbes.com

An analyst scrutinized satellite imagery, crunched the numbers and came to a startling conclusion. Twenty-eight months of hard fighting in Ukraine have radically reshaped the Russian army’s tank corps.

According to @highmarsed, the army has lost so many modern tanks that the only way it can even come close to maintaining its front-line strength of 3,000 tanks is to pull more 1960s-vintage T-62s out of long-term storage.

“In my opinion it is likely that we will see more T-62s in the future and they will probably be one of the main tank types in the Russian army,” @highmarsed wrote after weighing the stocks of T-62s against stocks of older T-55s and newer T-72s, T-80s and T-90s.

The 41-ton, four-person T-62s have the benefit of being abundant and, compared to newer tanks, fairly simple—making them more economical to recover and refurbish after decades in open storage. The 103rd Armor Repair Plant in Siberia, along with other factories, “seems to have built a significant capacity to refurbish this type,” @highmarsed noted.

This devolution—from modern T-72s, T-80s and T-90s (with their thicker armor, 125-millimeter main guns and fast autoloaders for their three-person crews) to aged T-62s (with thinner armor, 115-millimeter main guns and a human loader)—is an ominous sign for the Russian army as its attacks in Ukraine slow to a bloody grind.

The numbers show how the Russians got to this point. In February 2022, the Russian army went to war in Ukraine with around 2,100 late-model T-72s, 500 modern T-80s and 400 T-90s.

But Ukraine’s mines, drones, artillery and anti-tank missiles have taken a toll. Analysts have tallied 3,000 destroyed, abandoned and captured Russian tanks. Numerically, that’s the entire pre-war force—and the losses are disproportionately modern tanks rather than the older T-55s and T-62s the Russians began dragging out of open-air vehicle parks shortly after the war widened.

No one outside the Kremlin knows for sure how many new tanks Russian factories build every year, but well-informed estimates are in the range of 500 or 600. That’s far too few new tanks to replace all the lost tanks, so the balance come from old Cold War stocks.

Those stocks were significant in 2022. They included 6,200 tanks, according to @highmarsed’s survey of satellite imagery. The dominant types were 1,800 T-62s, 2,000 older T-72s and 1,400 early-model T-80s.

Just over two years later, the Russians have fetched around 700 T-62, 500 T-72s and 1,100 T-80s for refurbishment. That they’ve neglected roughly a thousand early-1970s T-72 Urals and T-72As might have something to do with those tanks’ finicky autoloaders.

The reserves of T-80s and newer T-72s are running out, but there are still 1,100 T-62s waiting for restoration and a second chance to wage war. As production of new tanks continues to lag for a want of money, workers and parts, these T-62s from the 1960s are set to play an ever-bigger role in the Russian army of the mid-2020s.

They’re not great tanks—and they’re definitely inferior to Ukraine’s most numerous T-64s and vulnerable to its mines, drones, artillery and missiles. Analyst Andrew Perpetua described the T-62s as “vaguely useful.” But only by “1980s standards.”

But vaguely useful old tanks are the best Russia can get as long as its losses in Ukraine greatly outpace the manufacture of new tanks.

 

[Ordnael]

Extensive but very interesting:

Destroying Russian Tanks Is Just The Start For U.S. AI Drone Autopilot​

Destroying Russian Tanks Is Just The Start For U.S. AI Drone Autopilot

A new AI-enabled drone autopilot from Auterion is already hitting targets in Ukraine and making jammer useless. But the system is capable of much more than that.

www.forbes.com

The FPV video shows the view from a Ukrainian kamikaze drone closing in on a Russian armored vehicle. The video feeds cuts out, broken by Russian radio jamming and the pilot loses control. That would normally be mission over, but video from a second drone shows the AI-enabled FPV guiding itself straight to the target and scoring a direct hit. It is one of the first strikes using a new smart autopilot supplied by U.S. company Auterion which shrugs off jamming and has a higher hit rate than human pilots.

The Skynode S autopilot was unveiled last week but is already on the frontline in Ukraine. The ability to lock on from long range makes jamming useless; I have seen a number of combat videos which I cannot share for security reasons, and caveats apply, but as far as can be judged, the system looks effective. As Auterion CEO Dr Lorenz Meier told me though, hitting targets automatically with FPVs is just the start.

Auterion’s app store allows developers to write their own apps for Skynode S as well as downloading what they need. Meier says terminal guidance apps for attack drones are currently the most popular.

“Terminal guidance is like MS Office on a laptop,” says Meier. “It is the minimum requirement which everyone expects.”

Open-Source Drone Intelligence​

Auterion has a long pedigree in the drone world, having led an open-source movement for more than a decade. In 2008 Meier, then at ETH Ethereum +1.6% Zurich, set out to build an autonomous drone. The result was Pixhawk 4, universally known as just PX4, an open-source flight controller giving drone developers a flexible set of tools. There are now 10,000 PX4 developers worldwide, including some who use it for robots and other machines. The Pentagon clearly believe in Auterion’s open-source software as they put it at the heart of their Blue sUAS initiative for U.S.-made small military drones. This was implemented as alternative to Chinese-supplied drones which come with a built-in security risk as standard and are banned by the U.S. military.
Auterion previously developed the Skynode X, a powerful autopilot and mission computer to give drones autonomy with including machine vision, object recognition, visual navigation and a variety of third-party apps. The newly-released Skynode S offers similar capabilities but at greatly reduced cost.

“We are offering a ‘Ukraine Aid’ price point in Ukraine a,” says Meier. “Generally it is priced in the range of an Android phone, mid-hundreds of U.S. dollars.”

This puts Skynode S in the same class are thermal imaging in terms of adding significantly to the cost of a $500 FPV, but giving greatly enhanced capability. And the cost may go down as production is scaled up.

“Skynode S … will be produced in the tens of thousands, introducing unprecedented scale,” says Meier.

It is no surprise to learn that Auterion are also involved with the Pentagon’s Replicator program to field large numbers of low cost AI-enabled drones.

100% Effective (So Far)​

The guidance system provides optical lock-on: the operator identifies the target and flags it for the autopilot while the drone is well outside jamming range. Then it can carry on through the ‘jamming bubble’ even if the operator loses contact. According to French Army Chief of Staff Gen. Pierre Schill, 75% of drones are currently brought down by jamming.

Meier says that their AI terminal guidance system used in Ukraine has hit every target in the initial deployment so far, compared to 20%-40% for FPVs controlled by a human. He does not expect to maintain an unbroken run of successes but believes they can continue to achieve a significantly higher rate than human pilots.

This means the two biggest causes of a miss—pilot error and jamming—can be eliminated.

The implication is that with a guidance system like Auterion S, four times as many drones could get through, and would then have a higher hit rate thanks to smart guidance. It is a sobering thought that the already high FPV kill rate might be boosted so dramatically by such a simple modification.

And while the current version simply guides the drones to the target, future developments are likely to feature aim-point selection, where the AI picks the most vulnerable spot. For example they might circling round to hit the turret rear on Russian tanks which tends to cause a catastrophic explosion, or the ammunition storage on a self-propelled gun.

The open-source software makes it easy to develop new applications. In June nonprofit Dronecode hosted a 48-hour hackathon in Krakow for NATO, challenging teams of coders to develop a system to visually identify targets and plot a flight path to intercept them. They used an early version of Skynode S with AuterionOS, similar to the product just released.

“This was a world first,” says Meier. “The developers were able to focus simply on developing the app.”

But the technology is capable of far more.

Boosting Bombers And Aiding Interceptors​

GPS and other satellite navigation is heavily jammed in both Ukraine and Russia, affecting even some military-grade systems and throwing U.S.-supplied Excalibur guided artillery rounds and JDAM guided bombs off course as well as drones. The usual solution to this is expensive inertial navigation modules, but these become inaccurate drift over longer ranges and are expensive.

AI systems are also capable of visual navigation, using a drone’s camera to find the way by matching objects on the ground, much like early pilots, using images from previous reconnaissance flights. Some Ukrainian drones already use AI software called Eagle Eyes to do this.
Meier says Skynode S can add an extra twist: terminal guidance. Once the drone has reached the target area, an object recognition app can visually acquire the target and hit it with pinpoint accuracy. In principle this means even a strike from several hundred miles away can find a specific piece of machinery at an oil refinery, strike the center of a radar dish or go through a particular window. Or simply homing in on a tank parked far behind the frontline which has been spotted via satellite.

This setup has already been tested on Ukrainian drones equivalent to the Russian Lancet and Shahed.

“The testing proved that it can accurately hit targets,” says Meier. “The system will field to the frontline in the next weeks.”

Skynode S can also help with air-to-air combat. Meier expects that autonomous ‘dogfight’ apps to be available shortly which will enable an FPV drone to plot an intercept course, outmaneuver an opponent attempting to evade and destroy it without any operator input, detonating when it gets to within kill distance.

Ukrainian FPV drones recently started intercepting Russian reconnaissance drones at high altitude. Skynode S might significantly the increase number and success rate of these engagements, while also ensuring that Ukrainian drones can outfly Russian interceptors.

An AI pilot might help with other tasks too. For example, some skilled FPV pilots are able to carry out dive bombing attacks, giving the precision of a kamikaze strike but without sacrificing a drone. The main limit seems to be the lack of experienced pilots. But a dive-bombing app could soon be just a download away.

Automated drone minelaying, or using jam-proof drones to drop tire-shredding caltrops on specific roads behind enemy lines, or just resupply friendly forces could also get much easier.

The Bigger Picture​

Looking at the bigger picture, Meier says Skynode S is already integrated with Ukraine’s battlefield management software such as ATAK and Kropyva. These command-and-control systems collate information from drones, satellites and other sources and combine it into a single picture visible to commanders on the ground. He demonstrates this with a video of an AI-powered reconnaissance drone spotting objects and feeding data back.
Targets are always verified by a human operator, but the AI system has already done the vast majority of the work in finding items of interest from the video feed. Because each drone no longer needs an operator, this will provide more detailed 24/7 surveillance of the battlefront and in real time. And because it only needs to communicate when it finds something, AI-enabled reconnaissance requires far less bandwidth to send far more useful information.

AI also offers the possibility of incorporating capabilities like change detection, automatically comparing a scene with how it looked last time around to spot new minefields, trenches, vehicle tracks or camouflaged positions.

Putting AI at the edge could dramatically accelerate to the process of gathering, processing and disseminating battlefield intelligence. Thousands of smart, autonomous reconnaissance drones may ultimately be more significant to warfighting than terminal guidance.

The Name Is Skynode, Not Skynet​

Skynode S also supports drone swarm control: a single operator can control multiple drones. So one operator might have a several reconnaissance drones and a stack of FPVs ready to launch, using the scouts to find targets and vectoring in the FPVs to engage them.

This makes it sound as though the whole kill chain could be automated. It is important here that there is always a human on the loop supervising operations, even if they no longer need to be in the loop.

Meier stresses that Skynode S is not about creating autonomous killing machines. He compares the level of automation to the way that guided missiles are used at present. The FPV operator locking on to a target is doing exactly the same thing as a Javelin missile operator: both are ‘fire and forget’ weapons which home in on targets previously designated by an human.

“I would have serious concerns about anything more autonomous,” says Meier. “But there is still a lot more than can be done without allowing drones to autonomously pick targets.”

It will take some work to explore fully the new capabilities offered by Skynode S. But with a large pool of software developers, low-cost hardware, and a ready supply of drones to fit it to — and a war to win — things are likely to happen fast.

 

[Zardnaar]

Sixty-Year-Old T-62s Are About To Become The Russian Army’s Main Tanks​

Sixty-Year-Old T-62s Are About To Become The Russian Army’s Main Tanks

Losses in Ukraine have greatly outpaced the production of new T-72s and T-90s.

www.forbes.com

Covert Cabal has colluded with the source here. They gave 6500 in reserve iirc.

1-3 years depending on exact loss rates and % of tanks suitable for conversion.

 

[EvaDK]

Lots of nations developing naval sea drone projects atm, likely as an off shoot of their successful deployment and use in the ongoing war.

Two of them are featured in this article:

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/13/tech/australia-us-undersea-drones-ml-hnk-intl/index.html

 

[Zardnaar]

Lots of nations developing naval sea drone projects atm, likely as an off shoot of their successful deployment and use in the ongoing war.

Two of them are featured in this article:

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/13/tech/australia-us-undersea-drones-ml-hnk-intl/index.html

Except they will coast a metric boatload vs putting a bomb and a control system on a speedboat.

 

[EvaDK]

Except they will coast a metric boatload vs putting a bomb and a control system on a speedboat.

A DIY speedboat probably won't cut it as a deterrent in the Taiwan Strait though.

Dozens of submerged drones equipped with multiple torpedoes on the other hand...

It's no secret that while the Europeans are focused on the Russian threat atm, the US isn't. Their gaze is fixated on China.

 

[Ordnael]

I assume I am not sure where to share this, but since Putin is intent in becoming Kim's BFF, i think it's okaish to post it here:

North Korea executes 30 teens for watching South Korean TV shows: Report​

North Korea has reportedly executed around 30 teenage students for watching South Korean dramas.

Citing a South Korean government official, local cable channel TV Chosun reported on Thursday that the North Korean authorities publicly shot the middle school students last week for allegedly watching South Korean dramas stored on USBs.

These USBs allegedly had been sent via balloons by North Korean defector groups from Seoul last month.


The South Korean Unification Ministry declined to confirm the report.

"However, it is widely known that North Korean authorities strictly control and harshly punish residents based on the three so-called 'evil' laws, including the Reactionary Ideology and Culture Rejection Act," a ministry official told reporters Thursday under the condition of anonymity.

"The 2024 North Korean Human Rights Report published by the ministry also records cases of executions for watching South Korean dramas," the official added.

The North's Reactionary Ideology and Culture Rejection Act, enacted in December 2020, mandates the death penalty for those distributing South Korean media and up to 15 years in prison for viewers.

The law also targets books, songs and photos, with a clause that imposes up to two years of forced labor for using South Korean speech or singing styles.

Last month, to curb the spread of South Korean culture within their borders, North Korean authorities sentenced some 30 teenagers, around 17 years old, to life imprisonment and death.

Earlier this year, a public trial video showed two 16-year-old boys being sentenced to 12 years of forced labor for watching South Korean dramas. The video, produced by North Korean authorities for internal ideological indoctrination, also depicted Pyongyang women being punished for imitating clothing and hairstyles from South Korean dramas.

The 2024 North Korean Human Rights Report includes testimonies from defectors, revealing harsh punishments for residents exposed to South Korean culture or food.

According to the report, North Korean authorities classify wearing a white dress instead of a traditional hanbok at weddings, drinking from wine glasses and wearing sunglasses as "reactionary behavior." Words like appa (dad) and ssaem (teacher) are also prohibited.

Coming soon to a neo USSR near you...!

Moderator Action: Moved from Russia Invades Ukraine News thread. leif

 

[Ordnael]

How To Blow Up Russia’s Turtle Tanks: Hit Them With Two Drones In A Row​

How To Blow Up Russia’s Turtle Tanks: Hit Them With Two Drones In A Row

Back-to-back drone strikes penetrate a turtle tank’s armored shell.

www.forbes.com

Desperate to clear mines in the no-man’s-land between Russian and Ukrainian positions—and equally desperate to protect the mine-clearers from Ukraine’s explosive first-person-view drones—the Russian military devised a new kind of vehicle this spring.

It’s an up-armored tank with mine-exploding rollers and shed-like improvised armor to shield the crew, and any infantry passengers, from FPV drones. Ukrainian troops derisively call the up-armored tanks “turtle tanks”—and refer to the hastily applied sheet metal and grills as “barbecue armor.”

As soon as the turtle tanks first began crawling along the 700-mile front line of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine in April, the Ukrainians began devising ways of destroying them.

A direct hit by an artillery shell, anti-tank missile or uncleared mine can do the trick. And so can back-to-back strikes by the very FPV drones the turtle tanks were designed to defeat, as the Ukrainian 108th Territorial Defense Brigade demonstrated recently.

On or before Saturday, the brigade’s SkyForce drone group spotted a T-62 turtle tank along the front line in southern Ukraine—and aimed at least two of their bird-sized FPVs at it.

“The Russian occupiers firmly believe that if a protective structure of the barbecue type is welded on top of the tank, it will provide guaranteed protection against drones,” the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade explained on social media. “But operators of the SkyForce group ... prove that this is not the case at all.”

As a surveillance drone observed from high overhead, one FPV struck the tank on its metal-encased flank. Soon, a second FPV zoomed in—apparently aiming for the same side. The strikes triggered a blaze that consumed the tank.

“Double defeat,” is how the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade described the back-to-back strike tactic.

The method makes sense. Many of the best anti-tank missiles have “tandem” warheads with two explosive charges. The first charge punches a hole in a tank’s armor. The second charge explodes inside the tank in order to inflict maximum damage.

The SkyForce group’s double-defeat method for striking turtle tanks transforms a pair of FPVs into a de facto tandem warhead. One drone to make a hole in the outermost armor. A second drone to deliver a blow underneath the shattered shell.

Whether other brigades can coordinate their drones to land one-two hits remains to be seen. It’s also unclear whether all turtle tanks are equally vulnerable to tandem strikes.

After all, not all of the up-armored tanks are equally crude. Some wear truly improvised armor made of whatever scrap metal the crew could scrounge. Others have add-on armor that’s obviously carefully designed and installed—and may offer much better protection.

 

[Ordnael]

Ukraine is cranking out lots of homemade weapons but needs more of a key ingredient, defense industry official says​

Ukraine is cranking out lots of homemade weapons but needs more of a key ingredient, defense industry official says

Ukraine's local defense industry has steadily contributed more of its own military hardware to Kyiv's front-line forces as the war has gone on.

www.businessinsider.com

Ukraine is rapidly producing a variety of homemade weapons as its defense industry aims to meet the needs and demands of soldiers fighting on the front lines. But a senior official says Kyiv still needs more of a key ingredient to keep the arms flowing.

Before Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine was barely producing any weaponry for its armed forces and was relying heavily on pre-existing stocks of Soviet-era supplies and support from international partners. Now, the country is cranking out its own drones, artillery, missiles, and more at a breakneck pace to supplement this inventory.

"I don't focus much on thinking how we made it, but we made it," Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine's minister of strategic industries, told Business Insider last week on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington.
"We've got a few challenges, just a few. One is energetics — explosives and propellants — and probably that's it," Kmayshin explained, reflecting on Ukraine's efforts to boost its defense output. "No one is making enough," he said, and that is a global challenge. "So the more you get, the more ammunition you produce."
Ukraine has received tens of billions of dollars in security assistance from NATO since the onset of the war, including more than $53 billion from the US alone. But as the conflict has progressed, the local defense industry has steadily contributed more and more of its own military hardware to Kyiv's front-line forces.
These domestic efforts supplement the provision of foreign weapons. Kamyshin said Ukraine will always be reliant on Western support because there's no one country that can outproduce Russia right now.

Russia also has weapons flowing in from abroad — most publicly from North Korea and Iran. But Moscow has also invested a significant share of its GDP into military spending and placed the economy on what experts say is a Soviet-style war footing.

The rapid production of weapons inside Russia has triggered alarm bells among some NATO allies, and it has underscored the need for Ukraine to prioritize local manufacturing, which is helping to grow the domestic economy.\

From breadbasket to arsenal​

"We are putting in the war everything we have," Kamyshin said, noting that most of the budget goes into the war. He said that Ukraine can't beat Russia when it comes to funding and manpower, so it is focused on quality over quantity.
"That's why we have to outperform in the quality of weapons, in the quality of people, and that's the only way we can withstand," he said.

One notable area of success in this war has been Ukraine's local drone development program. Kyiv has used long-range attack drones to target military and energy facilities deep inside Russian territory and has relied on naval drones packed with explosives to hammer Moscow's warships in the Black Sea.
Ukraine is also producing lots of first-person view (FPV) drones, which have been an ever-present force on the battlefield, functioning as a cheap way to deliver precision strikes on enemy armor and personnel.

And drones are not its only innovations. Ukraine also developed a homemade anti-ship missile, the Neptune missile, and used it to sink the Russian cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, early in the war. Kyiv later modified the missile for land attack.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is taking greater steps to further integrate its domestic defense industry with those of NATO and the European Union. Kyiv recently opened an office in Washington to achieve that goal and has encouraged deeper collaboration with Western arms manufacturers.

"They called us the 'breadbasket' of [the] Soviet Union. Then they called us the 'breadbasket' of Europe," Kamyshin said. "We've been always a good, a peaceful, nice agricultural country. I was farming myself."

"At some point, they came and started killing us. We had to learn how to fight" again, he said. "It was not our decision to switch from being a breadbasket to being the arsenal."

 

[Ordnael]

Mysterious drones keep watch as Ukrainians train in Germany​

Mysterious drones keep watch as Ukrainians train in Germany

Cheap drones are transforming the frontline in Ukraine, and they are also playing a big role in training.

www.politico.eu

BERLIN — Even deep in the forests of rural Germany, Ukraine’s conscripts aren’t safe from the prying lenses of potential enemy drones.
At a secret location outside the German capital, hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers are running through a six-week crash course covering the basics of trench warfare and urban fighting. As they train, unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles regularly buzz above the canopy of trees.
The German military — which has its suspicions about who is sending the drones — has a response: Instead of intervening, the Ukrainians are told to incorporate possibly hostile UAVs into their training as preparation for the front lines of eastern Ukraine where they’ll be facing Russian drones trying to kill them.
“We assume at least some of these drones to be steered with unfriendly intentions,” said Lieutenant Colonel Roland Bösker as he walked through the densely wooded training area.
While the skies were clear of drones on the day POLITICO visited, Ukrainian troops kept glancing upward as they darted toward makeshift trenches under a cacophony of machine gun fire and grenades (all blanks).
Jamming the drones isn’t easy.
“It is technically impossible to block all frequencies that can be used to steer drones,” said Bösker. Deploying geo-fencing jammer technology would also disable the radios used to communicate across the training area, and sophisticated spies will always find a way into such a large area.
“Compare it with tank armor,” Bösker said. “There will always be some kind of ammunition that can pierce even the best armor.”
While Bösker can’t be certain that the UAVs are tied to Russia, the clear suspicion is that it’s part of Moscow’s effort to destabilize and demoralize Western allies supporting Kyiv.
t’s not just drones. Instructors have been contacted by strangers as part of suspected honey-trap operations too, Bösker said.
The all-day, all-weather drills in the forest are part of the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine), set up in 2022 with the aim of training 60,000 Ukrainian troops using instructors from 24 countries by the end of this year.
This former East German military barracks is one of two major centers being used. The second is in Poland.

Unfriendly skies​

Drones are nothing new for the Ukrainians.
Cheap, disposable UAVs capable of carrying cameras and a few kilograms of explosives have become a major feature of the war — used by both sides to observe the battlefield, direct artillery and missile fire and hunt down tanks, trucks and individual soldiers.
There’s no way to mimic the conditions of real war in eastern Germany, said a 30-year-old Ukrainian platoon leader using the call sign Krug — or tankard — while watching his men train how to take and defend a trench.
Recruits are told to develop a constant awareness of the skies above. “It needs to be like breathing,” one of the Bundeswehr trainers said.
The possible spy drones add a bit of realism to the training exercise.
“The way that we deal with the problem is that we integrate the enemy drones into the training by telling the soldiers to keep watch constantly,” Bösker said.
The Ukrainian soldiers in Germany for the training range in age from the young and nimble to men in their 40s and 50s. Ukraine’s mobilization law, which was recently changed to draft people from the age of 25 — down from 27 previously — means that Ukraine’s soldiers tend to skew older.
Whatever their age, they are put through their paces by the trainers.
A 10-minute drive away from the trench-storming exercise, another crew were on the first day of a four-day urban warfare training session.
Outside a dilapidated train station hotel that is part of a mock urban environment designed for military drills, four middle-aged Ukrainian soldiers awkwardly held their rifles as they prepared to launch a surprise raid while their trainers looked on.
In addition to the station complex, the small town setting includes a travel office, apartment block and farm — perfect for practice, even under torrential rain.
Usually, storming an urban area would require around 16 soldiers and months of training, but the hope is that the high level of motivation from Ukrainians, who will soon be facing real bullets, shells and drones, will encourage them to absorb the basics at high speed, the trainers said.
Back in the comfort of a barracks recreation room, German Colonel Niels Janeke said this isn’t the European war he expected to be preparing for.
“I have to admit, I’m a bit of a Cold War warrior,” said Janeke, who’s responsible for overseeing the site from a base elsewhere in the region of Brandenburg. “But to be back in this conventional war fighting in Europe — I wouldn’t have imagined that.”
The training of Ukrainian soldiers is a two-way affair.
While the Ukrainians pick up knowledge from international trainers, the Bundeswehr is also figuring out how the war raging 2,000 kilometers to the east should transform its own approach to fighting. For example, the military is now ensuring that its soldiers are properly camouflaged and remain separated on the field to avoid making a tempting target for drones.
“Train as you fight as much as possible,” said Janeke.

 

[Ordnael]

Russia’s ‘New’ Artillery Piece Is A 70-Year-Old Behemoth Firing North Korean Shells​

Russia’s ‘New’ Artillery Piece Is A 70-Year-Old Behemoth Firing North Korean Shells

To make good losses in Ukraine, the Kremlin is pulling hundreds of old M-46 howitzers out of long-term storage.

www.forbes.com

Russian ground forces went to war in Ukraine in February 2022 with around 5,000 artillery pieces and rocket launchers. Twenty-eight months later, they’ve lost no fewer than 1,400 of the guns and launchers to Ukrainian action.

But combat losses aren’t the only drag on Russia’s artillery corps. More than two years of hard fighting have worn out the barrels on many howitzers—and also depleted Russia’s pre-war ammunition stocks.

Increasingly desperate for heavy firepower and struggling to manufacture new artillery and shells, the Kremlin has opened up storage yards from the early Cold War and guns that were obsolete decades ago. And to arm them, the Russia has turned to a new ally: North Korea.

The 1950s-vintage M-46 howitzer is indicative of this new dynamic. The 8.5-ton, eight-person gun fires a 130-millimeter shell as far as 17 miles at a rate of five shells a minute. It’s a powerful weapon—but heavy, hard to transport and manpower-intensive. Which is why, in the 1970s, the Soviet army replaced the M-46s with more efficient 152-millimeter howitzers.

Steep losses of those newer guns—and the depletion of Russia’s pre-war stocks of artillery barrels and shells—drove the Kremlin back in time. A year or so into the wider war in Ukraine, the M-46s’ drawbacks were no longer disqualifying. At that point, the alternative to old artillery was no artillery.

As of 2022 there were 665 M-46s in reserve in Russia, according to @highmarsed, an analyst who scrutinizes satellite imagery of Russian storage yards. By February 2024, around 65 had been removed. And now the pace of the reactivation is increasing.

A video that appeared on social media early this month depicts M-46s on a train apparently bound for the front line. “They have probably taken about half of the stored 130-millimter M-46 from storage,” @highmarsed concluded last week.

That’s 330 or so powerful—but old and heavy—replacement howitzers for the firepower-starved Russian force in Ukraine. Russian factories no longer produce 130-millimeter rounds, but North Korean factories do—so it should come as no surprise that videos have appeared online depicting Russian M-46s firing North Korean shells.

The howitzer ammo is the fruit of Moscow’s closer military ties to Pyongyang—ties that have alarmed Kyiv and Seoul and prompted the latter to boost its financial support for the former.

With its powerful shell and decent range, the M-46 is particularly useful as a “counterbattery” weapon—that is, a howitzer for destroying other howitzers. That the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s conclusion when it scrutinized North and South Korean artillery holdings in 2009. The CIA called the M-46 the “most effective counterbattery weapon in Korea.”

But the Russians may struggle to transport and support the big guns along the 700-mile front line in Ukraine. The Russian military has lost so many vehicles in Ukraine—not just tanks and armored personnel carriers but also trucks and artillery tractors—that it’s begun equipping front-line regiments and brigades with civilian-style all-terrain vehicles and dirt bikes.

It should go without saying that a 1.5-ton ATV can’t tow an 8.5-ton M-46.

The other problem for the Russian gunners who are about to receive 70-year-old M-46s is that they’re going to depend on foreign largess for their ammunition. North Korea and Iran are the only major manufacturers of 130-millimeter shells.

To keep its new old howitzers in action, Moscow will have to maintain good relations with Pyongyang and Tehran.

 

[Farm Boy]

A DIY speedboat probably won't cut it as a deterrent in the Taiwan Strait though.

Dozens of submerged drones equipped with multiple torpedoes on the other hand...

It's no secret that while the Europeans are focused on the Russian threat atm, the US isn't. Their gaze is fixated on China.

Nobody is building weapons faster.

Arms control treaties are dead.

 

[Crezth]

It’s amazing what trash those business journals are on national security.

 

[Ordnael]

War is truly hell..

Ukraine Uses Science Fiction Technology To Neutralize Russia’s Deadliest Mine​

Ukraine Uses Science Fiction Technology To Neutralize Russia’s Deadliest Mine

Okhota or Hunting is a Russian seismic sensor to detect footsteps from a distance and trigger antipersonnel mines. A device seemingly inspired by "Dune" can disarm it.

www.forbes.com

Ukrainian engineers have found a smart solution to one of Russia’s nastiest weapons. The NVU Okhota ("Hunting") antipersonnel mine is meant to be impossible to remove, with a sophisticated sensor to detect and injure or kill engineers long before they find it. But a gadget dropped from a drone can defang this lethal device from a safe distance.

The Deadliest Weapon​

The Hunting series was originally developed back in the 1970s to make minefields deadlier. Sappers were getting better at detecting and removing or destroying mines, so a new weapon was needed to disrupt attempts at tackling a minefield.

The Hunting system consists of up to five standard anti-personnel mines and a special sensing device to control them. The usual type are OZM-72 “Frog” jumping mines, which are normally actuated by a tripwire; when triggered the Frog throws a grenade into the air which detonates at waist height, throwing shrapnel with a lethal radius of 25 meters/ 82 feel. Hunting can also be rigged with MON-50 claymore-type directional mines or the POMZ-2 mine-on-a-stick. Hunting’s nerve center is a 10-pound seismic sensor the size of a lunchbox which detects ground vibrations over a wide area. The sensor detects and roughly locates human footsteps from 90 meters/300 feet away. It can spot anyone approaching the minefield long before they are aware it is there.
When the targets are in range, Hunting selects the nearest mine and triggers it.

Then comes the nasty bit.

“We used to explain it to soldiers simply: 'This mine blows up five times’,” as one Russian site puts it. “As the first soldiers are injured, their comrades and medics will believe it to be a normal mine detonation and rush to their defense, triggering the second mine. Attempts by the wounded to crawl away into safety will trigger a third mine.”
They note that the air-bursting OZM-72 will injure both people standing upright and those on the ground trying to crawl. Having Hunting linked to five mines ensures that multiple rescue attempts can be hit and there will be few if any survivors.

Hunting is claimed to reliably identifies moving humans, whether they are running, walking, crawling, or skiing, and distinguish them from animals and vehicles in all weather conditions, with an error rate of just 0.4% . It can be calibrated to adjust to particular terrain types such as soft or rocky ground.

The later version of Hunting also has a timer mechanism which activates and deactivates it at set times of day, giving a safe window for patrols to pass through – if they have enough confidence in it.

Goddess Of Hunting​

Russian military blogger “Combat Engineer” who has a Telegram channel with 58,000 subscribers concentrating on bomb disposal and unexploded munitions, noted earlier this month that the Ukrainians have come up with an answer to Hunting. It is a metal cylinder with a spike, dropped from a drone.

The device has the name ‘ARTEMIDA’ on the side. This is the Ukrainian name for the Greek Artemis – the goddess of hunting. According to Combat Engineer, Artemida emits a series of pulses which imitate human footsteps. This seismic simulator fools Hunting’s sensor into firing off all its mines harmlessly, disarming it. Artemida does not appear on Ukrainian sites; all we know is what Combat Engineer reports.
It is a neat idea, although similar concepts have been proposed before. There is an obvious similarity with the Thumper in Frank Herbert’s 1965 SF novel Dune which is also stuck in the ground to imitate the vibrations of human footfalls. The thumper is a lure for carnivorous sandworms though, rather than antipersonnel mines.

Artemida relies on knowing or suspecting the location of a Hunting minefield, but the whole point is that it attacks before anyone gets close enough to see it. However, Ukraine now operates various drone-based mine detection systems to fly over an area and spot mines without the risk of human-based mine detection. These include one project developed by 17-year old Igor Klymenko in 2022, the Safe Pro AI system which uses a machine vision system to detect mines, the Brave1 ST1 which uses a metal detector and a drone from Polish charity POSTUP also based on metal detection. Such systems give a good chance of spotting mines without walking into them. More drones can then be sent to drop Artemida devices to neutralize and Hunting systems.

Move And AI Counter Move​

As mentioned, the original Hunting was developed in the 70s and there have been a number of upgrades. These do not yet seem to have reached the level of sophistication of the POM-3, a Russian air-dropped antipersonnel mine with a seismic sensor with a processor.
According to the makers, the POM-3 uses AI and is so advanced that it can not only distinguish humans from animals and other vibration sources, it can tell the difference between soldiers’ and civilians’ footsteps. Western experts do not take these claims seriously, but it would be relatively straightforward to use machine learning to help a seismic sensor detect footsteps reliably, and presumably to filter out fakes like Artemida.

However, it would be equally simple to use the same machine learning to ensure that Artemida produced imitation footsteps matching natural ones as closely as possible. An AI-enabled Artemida might also be able to vary its output, trying out various patterns until it picked up the answering thump of a mine detonation.

Future weapons will be increasingly sophisticated in their ability to detect targets. Equally sophisticated, in fact science-fictional, methods may be needed to fool them.