[RD] War in Ukraine: Other topics

[Verbose]

I don’t think we can assume with 100% or close-to confidence that there will be another war.

Death and taxes, and all that...

You cannot seriously base any kind of policy on just taking a punt on that there won't...

Putin will stop when met by sufficient resistance. We should all be so lucky if this still happens in Ukraine. Otherwise the alternatives will be way worse.

 

[Gorbles]

I don’t think we can assume with 100% or close-to confidence that there will be another war.

I think the confidence of there being another illegal invasion is higher than there not being. Which is the actual calculus that matters, vs. "well actually it's not guaranteed".

 

[amadeus]

You cannot seriously base any kind of policy on just taking a punt on that there won't...

I didn’t call it taking a punt, I put some thought behind considering its likelihood.

I think the confidence of there being another illegal invasion is higher than there not being. Which is the actual calculus that matters, vs. "well actually it's not guaranteed".

I ask: on what basis?

 

[Thorgalaeg]

EU should rearm not only because any chance of future Russian attempt of invasion of the Baltics or whatever (not matter what chance it is, we are not playing poker here) but because sovereignty and to enforce European interests in the world. There is not reason to leave Europe defense in the hands of anybody else, that is the only thing trump is right about, but unlike Trump plans, avoiding to buy made in USA stuff, it has proven to be an unreliable partner. (Spain has followed this policy for the last 30 years, avoiding buying US stuff when possible)

It will also be good for European industry and economy to develop its own systems and capabilities there where it is lacking, as satellites and such.

 

[Gorbles]

I ask: on what basis?

Given that they've already committed to one, with no actual end in sight (short of Ukraine's surrender). Combine this with the punditry prior to this ongoing invasion ("it won't happen" / "they wouldn't risk it"), such claims now require a commensurately higher level of evidence. If evidence can't be provided (which I'll be honest, I think it's hard to say for sure), then people expecting the worst is entirely justified.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I don't give it a significant chance to be honest, at least in the foreseeable future. Don't get me wrong, the likes of Putin Trump and such are psychos and not very clever and therefore unpredictable, but after the disaster in Ukraine Russia is currently extremely weak militarily and economically, confronting big European countries even indirectly by invading the small Baltics would mean utter annihilation of Russian invading force, even without US backing Europe. Still it is in European interests to have a much stronger military to impose its will. The world is a jungle and in the jungle is better to be among the predators. Time to leave the post WW2 sanctimony behind and play a bit the imperialist role, like USA, China and wannabe Russia. We invented it after all. But this time we must do it united to be successful. Creating the EU has been an incredible feat to say the least, so we surely can go a step further.

 

[Kyriakos]

were they "warmonger", and who attacked them ?

Yesterday, in the spur of the moment, I reread Le Petit Prince.
I think that when sentiments from literature get recycled in politics, the result is garbage. A good example is one of the main phrases in that nice book: "what is essential remains invisible to the eye". Literature-wise, it is a worthy sentiment, due to all sorts of interconnections of idealism with imagination. But - returning with all this to the Eu's position re Ukraine now - sometimes what is glaringly visible to the eye should supersede what some people feel, because very visibly we (as Eu) are in no position to win a war for Ukraine and will only "help" it lose even more land in the final deal.
And if you don't like the Prince example, there's also the speech by Jeffrey Sachs in the Eu parliament, only a few days ago:

To not keep some in suspense, if they don't feel like watching something by Sachs - who unlike us in this forum, actually knows the people who are the main actors in this affair - Sachs spells out (uses the exact phrases) that the war in Ukraine was "a proxy war by the US, brought about by the unrealistic and reckless attitude of 'Nato has open borders=>anyone that wants to join, will join'". So esteemed forum posters can direct their different view to Sachs, to save us the time of reading boring ad hominems (though maybe they can use boring ad hominems against Sachs; at least it is less vile imo since he won't ever see).

 

[Yeekim]

I don’t think we can assume with 100% or close-to confidence that there will be another war.

A year ago, I would have said it is a throw of a dice.
Today, I'd say it is a coinflip.

With Trump in White House, the US has effectively stopped being a deterrent for Russia.

European parts of NATO have potential to develop such deterrence, but we're currently falling way short. Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, but should they be able to close that front on advantageous terms, they are highly likely to try and use their window of opportunity to scupper NATO for good and discredit EU while Trump is in power and EU is yet to meaningfully rearm.

 

[Snowygerry]

Do you have a written text for that Sachs speech, I dislike movies of someone talking, much too slow.

 

[Yeekim]

Sachs

Jeffrey Sachs | Vatnik Soup

In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an American economist and academic and political commentator, Jeffrey Sachs. He’s best-known for his deep hate for the “US hegemony”, and for his love for the totalitarian regimes in Russia, China and in Syria.

vatniksoup.com

No more comments. Next please.

 

[Verbose]

I'm not listening to Mearsheimer either...

 

[Snowygerry]

I see, another Russian agent, never mind then.

 

[Kyriakos]

Jeffrey Sachs | Vatnik Soup

In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce an American economist and academic and political commentator, Jeffrey Sachs. He’s best-known for his deep hate for the “US hegemony”, and for his love for the totalitarian regimes in Russia, China and in Syria.

vatniksoup.com

No more comments. Next please.

Your source to dismiss Sachs is a site called "vatniksoup". And the curious thing is that you are happy with that /facepalm

 

[EvaDK]

I think the better question is "Will Putin be able to start another war before he dies or is removed?" The war he starts will determine who gets involved.

Putin originally envisioned that Ukraine would fall in 2-3 weeks, leaving most of Russia's conventional forces intact for the next step in his imperialistic ambitions.

Three years on, Ukraine is still standing, more than half of Russia's army hardware no longer exists, >800,000 Russian casualties and the Russian economy is in freefall.

If Putin wants to exploit the current divide between the US and its allies, he only has until Trump's presidency ends, because no one knows who will succeed him and what their policy will be.

I don't see what's left of Russia's ground forces being a huge threat, considering they can't even defeat Ukraine. With that said, I fully endorse Europe rearming massively over the next +5 years. Europe should rely on no one else for defending itself.

 

[red_elk]

Your source to dismiss Sachs is a site called "vatniksoup". And the curious thing is that you are happy with that /facepalm

"American economist, academic and political commentator Jeffrey Sachs" dismissed by vatniksoup.
No more comments indeed.

 

[Yeekim]

they can't even defeat Ukraine.

Ukraine presently has as much troops as the entire NATO minus US and Turkey...

"American economist, academic and political commentator Jeffrey Sachs" dismissed by vatniksoup.
No more comments indeed.

...and guess who immediately springs up in his defense. What a surprise.

 

[EvaDK]

Ukraine presently has as much troops as the entire NATO minus US and Turkey...

Not quite.

Active personel:
Ukraine (730,000)
NATO (minus US & Turkey) ~1,500,000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Ukraine presently has as much troops as the entire NATO minus US and Turkey...

No so much. And IMO you are comparing apples and oranges, countries currently at war like Ukraine or Russia with countries at peace. Ukraine has the population of Poland, Imagine the kind of army European countries could raise if attacked, and unlike Ukraine, backed by huge industry and the most advanced technology. It would be suicidal for Russia. Unless Putin is thinking in taking some tiny baltics in another 3 days(tm) operation with not response by the rest of Europe, which is increasingly clear would not happen.

Still it is going to be intresting to see what Russia will do with a million of zombies and an economy reshaped for war if the war somehow ends (which is still to be seen) So better to be vigilant and rearm the quickest the better to discorauge any funny idea in the mind of the psyco midget,

 

[amadeus]

Given that they've already committed to one, with no actual end in sight (short of Ukraine's surrender)

Right, but this in the pre-war situation before the battering taken in Ukraine. In the extreme devil’s advocate case, I would speculate that even if Ukraine for some reason submitted tomorrow to an unconditional surrender, the Russians would be less prepared to fight another war in the near future.

Combine this with the punditry prior to this ongoing invasion ("it won't happen" / "they wouldn't risk it"), such claims now require a commensurately higher level of evidence.

I can only speak for myself of course but I would have to go back to my 2022 posts to find out. I think (sorry, I didn’t check) I was on the side that—yes, the intelligence that Biden got that they were planning an invasion was correct.

 

[EvaDK]

No so much. And IMO you are comparing apples and oranges, countries currently at war like Ukraine or Russia with countries at peace. Ukraine has the population of Poland, Imagine the kind of army European countries could raise if attacked, and unlike Ukraine, backed by huge industry and the most advanced technology.

Yeah. Ukraine has mobilized most of its reserves, making them active personel.

Europe (without Turkey) has at least another 1,5M listed as reserves & national home guards as of right now.