[RD] War in Ukraine: Other topics

Right, but this in the pre-war situation before the battering taken in Ukraine. In the extreme devil’s advocate case, I would speculate that even if Ukraine for some reason submitted tomorrow to an unconditional surrender, the Russians would be less prepared to fight another war in the near future.
Any mention of "devil's advocate" kinda demonstrates the lack of any kind of actionable evidence. It's just endless "what ifs". And to that end, the "what if they invade someone else / Ukraine again after a theoretical peace" are now both, forevermore, more likely than they were before Putin already committed to the original illegal invasion. That's all there is to it. Nobody can prove anything either way.

Just as the annexation of Crimea was also seen as signifier in the same way. Accurately, as it turns out.
I can only speak for myself of course but I would have to go back to my 2022 posts to find out. I think (sorry, I didn’t check) I was on the side that—yes, the intelligence that Biden got that they were planning an invasion was correct.
Punditry in general terms.
 

JD Vance's cousin criticises him for 'belittling' Zelensky​

US Vice-President JD Vance's cousin has criticised him and President Donald Trump for "belittling" Volodymyr Zelensky during the three men's Oval Office showdown in February.

"There's a certain level of decorum that I expect from political leaders, especially in front of cameras," Nate Vance - who spent three years volunteering with the Ukrainian military after Russia's full-scale invasion - told the BBC.

It follows his earlier comment that Trump and Vance were acting like "useful idiots" for President Vladimir Putin in their handling of the conflict.

Last month US and Russian officials held direct talks on ending the war. US and Ukrainian officials are currently in Saudi Arabia for talks.

Nate Vance told the BBC's PM programme on Monday that he was "not happy" with the way in which the White House meeting had been handled by his cousin and Trump.

"I'm kind of attached to the Ukrainian issue but, looking at that, if it were some other completely neutral issue and I saw White House officials and hack journalists that are political belittling a foreign leader, I'd be like 'what the hell is going on?'" he told the BBC.

The televised Oval Office meeting between the leaders quickly turned heated, with Trump threatening to withdraw support from Ukraine if a deal was not made and accusing the Ukrainian President of "gambling with World War Three".

Vance called Zelensky "disrespectful" for "litigating" the dispute in front of the media and accused him of not expressing gratitude for America's support during the war.

Nate Vance said that he did not agree that Zelensky had failed to show appreciation. "Zelensky does a daily or nightly address and thanks everyone who supports Ukraine on a daily basis," he said.

He said that perhaps the Ukrainian leader had not shown "enough deference to Donald Trump" but that it would be "odd for my cousin and Donald Trump to ask for deference because they've been actively working against his initiatives for the past three years".

Zelensky was eventually asked to leave the White House and a planned news conference was cancelled.

Following the meeting, the Trump administration halted military aid, satellite imagery and intelligence sharing to Kyiv.

One American reporter during the meeting in the White House accused Zelensky of disrespecting the occasion by not wearing a suit. Since the start of the war, Zelensky has eschewed suits for military-style dress in what he says is solidarity with soldiers.

"Everyone knows that's why he does that and it's kind of a symbolic thing," Nate Vance said. "Who cares? It's a silly hill to die on. And speaking of which, why is Elon Musk in the Oval Office wearing a baseball hat and a T-shirt all the time?"

In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro earlier on Monday, Nate Vance said his cousin was a "good guy, intelligent" but that the meeting with Zelensky was "an ambush of absolute bad faith".

He later told the PM programme that he had been a "Republican my whole life so this is an odd stance for me to be taking but I'm pretty passionate about it and it's one issue where I think we're doing wrong".

He said it was unlikely his cousin would want to speak to him following his comments.

Asked about other Americans' view of the encounter, he said 20% would be "disheartened" and that "all of this alienation is isolating us and the last time we decided to take an isolationist path we ended up with World War One and World War Two".

Zelensky subsequently said the angry exchange had been "regrettable" and it was "time to make things right".

The US is attempting to mediate with both Russia and Ukraine in hopes of ending the war.

Last week, Trump said that he was "doing very well with Russia" and that it was "more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine".
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2yl5kevrpo
 

What BI learned in a night visit with Ukrainian soldiers fighting drones with machine guns​

A Ukrainian soldier fires a machine gun during training in the Kherson region in October.

A Ukrainian soldier looks at the thermal imaging display on the M2 Browning gun. AP Photo/Marko Ivkov
  • Business Insider visited a Ukrainian mobile air defense unit near Kyiv last week.
  • The soldiers use truck-mounted machine guns to shoot down Russian drones packed with explosives.
  • The Ukrainians said they are fueled by anger at Russia and a desire to protect their country.
KYIV, Ukraine — The moment the air raid warning sounds, signaling a new Russian bombardment, the countdown starts. There are just 15 minutes on the clock.

As quickly as they can, Oleksiy and his team of air defenders scramble out to their firing point, set up their heavy American-made machine guns, and get ready to start shooting down the Russian drones that have caused fear in Ukrainian cities and brought substantial destruction throughout the war.

Once in position, they may be there for only an hour. On other occasions, they may be out for as many as 14 hours, sometimes through the night, waiting to gun down exploding drones. Only when the last one is down do they pack up and call it a night.

Oleksiy is the deputy commander of a mobile air defense unit with Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces. It is tasked with protecting critical infrastructure and civilians in a city on the outskirts of Kyiv, the country's capital city and a frequent target for Russian missile and drone strikes.

Business Insider met with the unit last week and observed how it conducts operations. The soldiers, who asked to be identified by their first names only for security reasons, said their missions are fueled by a fury at Russia and a desire to protect their homeland.

"We have ordinary people, not professional soldiers, who are united by the defense of their city and the defense of the state," said Oleksiy, who, like others in this story, spoke to BI through a translator.


Ukrainian soldiers take the camouflage wrapping off an M2 Browning machine gun.

Ukrainian soldiers take the camouflage wrapping off an M2 Browning machine gun. Jake Epstein/Business Insider
This air defense unit was set up by Oleksandr Markushyn, the mayor of Irpin, a city near Kyiv that saw intense fighting in the early days of the Russian invasion.

The unit's seven members are on and off, reporting for duty early in the morning when their two-day shifts start. Their base has everything they need to rest and train for the missions.

If the Russians launch an attack, an alarm goes off, sending the soldiers rushing to their trucks. They've got just minutes to get ready for the coming battle.

The soldiers drive pickup trucks equipped with flashing lights to speed through traffic. However, they usually work at night, when there are fewer cars on the road.

At their firing location, which could be in an open field, they remove the camouflage net from the .50 caliber M2 Browning machine gun mounted in the bed of the truck. The net helps conceal the heavy, American-made weapon and allows the soldiers to transport it safely around the city.


The M2 Browning is a World War I-era heavy machine gun that fires .50 caliber bullets.

The M2 Browning is a heavy machine gun designed near the end of the First World War that fires .50 caliber bullets. It's been in service since the 1930s and fires hundreds of rounds a minute. Jake Epstein/Business Insider
A Ukrainian soldier looks at the thermal imaging display on the M2 Browning gun.

A Ukrainian soldier looks at the thermal imaging display on the M2 Browning gun. Jake Epstein/Business Insider
The soldiers carry assault rifles, pistols, body armor, radios, and other gear with them. They don't take much else. Sometimes, they drink coffee to stay alert through the long nights or eat a sandwich if they get hungry, but the mission is at the front of their minds, not the food or drink.

"We are more angry than hungry," said one of the unit's soldiers, whose name is also Oleksiy.

The soldiers use a spotlight that shines a bright and powerful beam of light into the night sky to help them spot the Russian drones, specifically the notorious Shahed-136, which can fly at speeds of over 115 mph and carry an explosive warhead that weighs nearly 90 pounds. They can also observe the drones through a thermal imaging device.

The Russians often launch their Shaheds at low altitudes to avoid radar detection. This forces the Ukrainian soldiers to rely on visual or acoustic detection; they listen for the drone's engine noise, which sounds like a lawnmower.

"They fly very low, and so we need to watch very carefully," Oleksiy said. "It may be that we can stay in position all night. This happens very often."


Ukrainian air defenders set up their firing position.

Ukrainian air defenders set up their firing position. Jake Epstein/Business Insider
Shaheds are not easy aircraft to shoot down. A bullet can pierce the drone, but unless a critical part is struck, it may keep flying. However, hitting the drone could slow it down and make it easier for another air defense unit in another location to destroy.

Oleksiy said it's frustrating to hit one but not kill it. He said he understands that knocking one down could create debris, but "if the drone reaches where it is aimed, there will probably be even more damage."

He said that scoring a kill against a Shahed will often cause an explosion overhead that they can feel on the ground. "We will feel the shock wave, which can be very dangerous."

Svitlana, who works the spotlight and monitors enemy targets on a tablet, said that the soldiers train with a simulator to use the Browning. In it, they can hone their skills and be ready to engage the drones in real scenarios.

Every night is different. One night, the unit could battle dozens of Shaheds for hours. Other nights might be much quieter. It's tough to know what it'll be like.


A Ukrainian officer shows a thermobaric charge of a downed Shahed drone at an undisclosed location in Ukraine in November.

A Ukrainian officer shows a thermobaric charge of a downed Shahed drone at an undisclosed location in Ukraine in November. AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky
Ukrainian air defenses intercept a Shahed drone during a Russian attack on Kyiv in September.

Ukrainian air defenses intercept a Shahed drone during a Russian attack on Kyiv in September. AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka
"When we are just waiting here in the field, we usually discuss some everyday topics, watch, and wait," Svitlana said. "For me, this is my contribution to our safety and our victory."

When the air raid is finally over, the unit returns to base. There, they can replenish ammunition, refuel their trucks with gas, eat, and rest before the inevitable next mission.

And there's always another. Britain's defense ministry said last month that Russia's drone launch rate of at least 2,000 a month will likely remain the case through the year. But the Ukrainian defenders believe they are up for the task.

Oleksiy, the deputy commander, said half of his group had no prior combat experience before Russia's full-scale invasion. During their two days off, the soldiers go to their regular jobs; the other Oleksiy is a teacher at a high school, and Svitlana is a teacher's assistant.

"The best part of the job is when there is a result — when air targets are shot down," Oleksiy said. "It means that they did not reach their target and we were able to protect our citizens. They have light, heat, and, most importantly, they are alive."
 
A couple of years ago I considered that a change of Russian leadership might result in peace as when the Tsar was replaced in the Crimean war.

However as events have unfolded, I have changed my mind.

The (a) drip feed of western military supplies and (b) supporting Ukraine's maximalist objective of recovering all territories
including Crimea is part of the causality that led to Russia (c) adopting a war economy supported by (d) extreme nationalism.

The issue is that those (c and d) don't just disappear when Vlad Putin passes from power.

And a powerful industrial military complex war machine is its own rationale for starting wars.
I agree partially. I imagine Russia will try and provoke a fight against Europe elsewhere, yes, unless the fundamentals of their system of government change...I do not believe a Ukraine War will continue in perpetuity with the death of Putin, as he seems to be the sole instigator of it and can't really articulate the reason for it to anyone beyond my first point (a buffer state/bulwark against Europe)...
 
I am not sure Russia would necessarily go west.

There are other e.g. non western former soviet republics Moscow might like to assert its authority over.
 
I am not sure Russia would necessarily go west.

There are other e.g. non western former soviet republics Moscow might like to assert its authority over.
It is the loss of its former Eastern European hegemony that irks Putin. Look at a 1914 map of Europe and then one from the cold war and you can see what Putin is aiming for.
 
I am not sure Russia would necessarily go west.

There are other e.g. non western former soviet republics Moscow might like to assert its authority over.

Ex Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev claims Baltic countries belong to Russia​

The former Russian Prime Minister referred to the three Baltic states as "our" on Tuesday, adding Poland was "temporarily occupied".
Firebrand Russian politician Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday that the Baltics belong to Russia.


Writing on Twitter, the former Russian Prime Minister referred to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as "our" provinces, saying they had "soiled themselves" over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/17/russias-dmitry-medvedev-claims-baltic-countries-belong-to-russia

I think everyone accepts that Medvedev is/was the Mouth of Putin.
 
Perhaps they are giving voice to Vlad Putin's innermost thoughts and/or perhaps that Tuesday
tweet was also recently inspired by The Donald's statements on Canada or Greenland.

I don't know, and I don't think you do either.

Countries I was alluding to are: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
 
No Constantinople? It’s what the tsars wanted. But I don’t see their claims (who made them?) as being any more actionable than the ROC claiming all of the mainland plus Mongolia.
 
Poland will likely get nukes in the aftermath of the rotten peace cooked by the Hog Emperor of Doom and midget tsar Putain!
 
No Constantinople? It’s what the tsars wanted. But I don’t see their claims (who made them?) as being any more actionable than the ROC claiming all of the mainland plus Mongolia.

What's shown here is a common, "moderate" view about Russia's intended borders, while what they deem their "rightful sphere of influence" encompasses everything where Russians ever had any significant influence. Warsaw Pact countries, Finland and so on....
And then there are more extreme views, paraded in Russian state media, held by some members of Duma and other influential people like the oft-mentioned Dugin, that say that Russia has right to rule entirety of Europe. Including Constantinople.
...and once they've reached Poland, they start desiring Berlin.

Some already do, and more. Remember "Russia from Vladivostok to Lisbon"?
 
Apples to... oranges (well it's Trump after all). Being popular is no substitution for elections so there's imo no point in such a comparison. One has democratic legitimacy through a recent election, the other is there after the term expired. A better title might have been "dictator and apparently popular hero".
I would certainly not think it wise to bet that Zel will be reelected. This doesn't have to be his fault - it's difficult to get reelected when the country will have been officially and permanently severed.
 
but 72% is quite different than the claimed 4%, isn't it ?
 
Of course it's a poll, while the 4% was just direct Russian propaganda.
 
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