[RD] War in Ukraine: Other topics

[EnglishEdward]

When I mentioned WW1, I was thinking of The Turnip Winter:

Turnip Winter - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Food shortages were also attributed to a seizure of horses for the army, the conscription of a large part of the agricultural
workforce, and a shortage of farming fertilizers caused by the diversion of nitrogen to explosives production.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

How interesting. In World War I, they used to blow up entire sections of the front, mining under enemy trenches and gathering tons of explosives. They probably used a lot of sacks of nitrate-based explosives, the same type used in mining and civil engineering, very similar to modern ANFO. Dont know if that had caused the famine though, wasnt cow and horse turds the main source of fertilizers back then?

Regarding the relationship between fertilizer production and modern military explosives, ammonium nitrate comes from the ammonia synthesis process, also known as the Haber process, one of the main processes in the chemical industry. It basically keeps the world running. Not only produces fertilizer in the form of ammonium nitrate and such, but also ammonia, hydrogen gas... and everything else derived from it, including, of course, nitric acid, which is used to make nitrocellulose and any other explosive (and practically anything else). Of course, production is in the dozens or even hundred of millions of tons / year, so i don't think it's a limiting factor when it comes to making explosives.

 

[Sarin]

When I mentioned WW1, I was thinking of The Turnip Winter:

Turnip Winter - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Although my chemistry knowledge doesn't go much further than high school level, I can help with this.
Nitrogen processing is usually all done in a single facility, because the processes are related and intertwined. Haber-Bosch process uses atmospheric nitrogen and a source of hydrogen (usually natural gas, but other sources can be used) to form ammonia under high temperature and pressure. Ammonia can then be processed into nitric acid via Ostwald process, first step of which is burning the ammonia with atmospheric oxygen. The heat generated is easily used for Haber-Bosch process, and the only input not produced by Haber-Bosch process and its side processes is water. Nitric acid can then react with ammonia to produce ammonium nitrate.
So the facility has three main outputs: ammonia, which is the most common nitrogen-providing compound in fertilizers and has plenty of other uses, nitric acid and ammonium nitrate, which is the infamous exploding fertilizer (remember Beirut 2020? That was it), also used in some explosives.
So by simply altering the ratio of ammonia processing, a plant can be repurposed to produce either explosive precursors or fertilizers.

How interesting. In World War I, they used to blow up entire sections of the front, mining under enemy trenches and gathering tons of explosives. They probably used a lot of sacks of nitrate-based explosives, the same type used in mining and civil engineering, very similar to modern ANFO. Dont know if that had caused the famine though, wasnt cow and horse turds the main source of fertilizers back then?

Regarding the relationship between fertilizer production and modern military explosives, ammonium nitrate comes from the ammonia synthesis process, also known as the Haber process, one of the main processes in the chemical industry. It basically keeps the world running. Not only produces fertilizer in the form of ammonium nitrate and such, but also ammonia, hydrogen gas... and everything else derived from it, including, of course, nitric acid, which is used to make nitrocellulose and any other explosive (and practically anything else). Of course, production is in the dozens or even hundred of millions of tons / year, so i don't think it's a limiting factor when it comes to making explosives.

The Haber-Bosch process has been industrialized just long enough before WWI to make European agriculture reliant on it.

 

[Ordnael]

As Trump cuts funding, Ukrainians wonder who will answer for kids abducted in war​

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-cuts-funding-ukrainians-wonder-who-will-answer-kids-abducted-war-2025-03-27/

• Summary

• Trump administration cuts support for Yale's Ukraine project
• Yale was documenting Russian child abductions from Ukraine
• Ukrainians who tried to prevent their removal raise alarm
• Some wonder if Moscow will be held to account for crimes

KHERSON, Ukraine, March 27 (Reuters) - When he learned that U.S. President Donald Trump had suspended funding for a Yale University research project into Russia's abduction of children from Ukraine, Volodymyr Sahaidak wondered if the perpetrators would ever be brought to justice.
Sahaidak was running a rehabilitation centre for more than 50 children in the southern city of Kherson when Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

He quickly dispersed most of them among relatives and staff to prevent the Russians from taking them away. But not all could be re-homed and a handful who were attending a vocational school in the city were removed to Russian-occupied territory.

"I am angry that one person can undo all the work conducted by dozens of people," Sahaidak told Reuters this week in Kherson, back under Ukrainian control since November 2022. It continues to be pounded regularly by Russian shelling and attack drones.
"There needs to be criminal responsibility (for this), but America is now showing us otherwise."
Many Ukrainians share his anger at the suspension of vital U.S. support for programmes pursuing justice for civilians who say they are the victims of abuses - and for children whose voices have not been heard.

Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab had been part of an initiative that under President Joe Biden began to document potential violations of international law and crimes against humanity by Russian authorities in Ukraine.
Ukraine says that more than 19,500 children have been taken to Russia or Russian-occupied territory during the war without the consent of family or guardians, calling the abductions a war crime that meets the U.N. treaty definition of genocide.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his children's rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova over the deportation of the children.

Russia says it evacuated vulnerable children from war zones for their own safety.
The Kremlin, Lvova-Belova's office and the Russian defence ministry did not respond to detailed questions for this article.
According to Sahaidak, four unidentified Russian representatives came to his orphanage one day in June 2022 and removed the children's paperwork.
CCTV footage at the centre showed four men - two in civilian clothes and face masks and two in military uniforms and balaclavas - search his office.
A Reuters investigation previously found that six children attending a vocational school in Kherson were then taken to Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula occupied by Russia since 2014.

JOY TO DISMAY​

Sahaidak was jubilant when the ICC, to whose investigator he recounted his story, issued arrest warrants for Putin and Lvova-Belova. That turned to dismay when Trump's administration sanctioned the ICC prosecutor pursuing the case, Karim Khan, over a separate decision involving Israel's prime minister.

"It's wrong, and I'm worried that if this continues (Putin) will walk away scot-free," he said.
A U.S. statement issued after talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday said Washington would seek to return abducted children to Ukraine, but did not give details.
"Trump and Putin's friendship should not influence decisions about the illegal actions of Russia," Sahaidak said.
For Inna Kholodnyak, chief doctor at Kherson's main children's hospital, the withdrawal of funding for the Yale programme was a bitter pill to swallow.

"To stop financing such an important project ... will lead to everyone understanding that whatever crime they commit, nothing will happen to them, and this will cause a chain reaction around the world."
The White House did not respond to questions about ending support for the Yale initiative and whether this could damage efforts to hold people accountable.
After the Russians seized Kherson, Kholodnyak said she refused to take orders from them and was replaced as head doctor, but still helped to run the hospital remotely, moving homes as she feared detention by occupying forces.
She recalled how children, many of them pre-schoolers, were brought to the hospital from the Kherson children's home - separate from Sahaidak's centre - and how all but two of them stayed there.
"(Doctors would) exaggerate the severity of illnesses on paperwork so that children could not be taken away," she said.
One of the two who were taken away was Illia Vashchenko, who was two at the time, Reuters previously found. Illia was issued with a new Russian birth certificate in 2023 by a Russian state registry office.
The registry documents, which a previous Reuters investigation reviewed, do not reveal his precise location or whether he has been adopted.
"I feel hatred and disrespect towards the Russians," Kholodnyak said.
Asked if they believed abducted children would one day have justice, Kholodnyak and Sahaidak agreed that Trump's interventions had made this less likely.
"I have always believed and still believe in the victory of good, justice and common sense," Kholodnyak said.
Sahaidak was less sure.
"I think that until Ukraine becomes a powerful country, there will not be any justice done."

European leaders agree on a stronger Ukraine, differ on future 'reassurance force'​

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...id-security-assurances-mind-2025-03-27/France pledges 2 billion euros in military aid to UkraineLeaders pledge long-term support to Ukraine's army

• Macron says some nations support "reassurance force"
• Europeans under US pressure to take on more responsibility

PARIS, March 27 (Reuters) - European leaders reaffirmed their long-term support for Ukraine during a summit in Paris on Thursday but appeared to make little progress on what role they might play in providing security guarantees if a peace deal is struck with Moscow.
It was the third summit of what France and Britain have called the "coalition of the willing", reflecting concern among Europeans that the U.S. no longer represents a firm bulwark of support for Ukraine in its three-year-old fight against Russia.

U.S. President Donald Trump, in office since January 20, has said he wants to broker a swift end to the war. But a series of bilateral talks between the U.S. and the warring sides has yet to yield a significant diminution of hostilities.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said leaders had agreed on the need for more support for Ukraine to ensure it was in the strongest possible position for any peace process, without elaborating. He also said he would like to see a peace deal developing "in days and weeks, not months".

European efforts to create security arrangements for Ukraine have been shifting away from sending troops to other alternatives as they face political and logistical constraints, and the prospect of Russia and the U.S. opposing their plans.
Even so, co-host French President Emmanuel Macron said a number of countries had agreed to pursue a Franco-British idea for what he called a "reassurance force" that would be deployed in the event of a peace deal to deter future Russian aggression.
"It was not unanimous today, as we all know, and we don't need unanimity," Macron told a press conference.
Military delegations will travel to Ukraine in the coming days to start work on how the contours of a strong Ukrainian army in the long-term would look, he added.
Europe is under pressure from Trump to take on a much greater share of the security burden in its own backyard, but the continent's anaemic economic growth and high levels of debt have complicated their task.

Macron spoke with Trump ahead of the meeting, the French presidency said. While the United States was not present, French officials say the outcome of the gathering will be shared with Washington.

The proposed "reassurance force" positioned in Ukraine would aim to offer security guarantees and deter future aggression from Russia, although there are few signs at this stage that the United States would offer its backing.

NO SUPPORT FOR SANCTIONS RELIEF​

There was broad agreement at the summit that it would be a strategic error to prematurely ease sanctions on Russia - a condition Moscow has made for a Black Sea ceasefire deal to take effect.
"There was absolute clarity that Russia is trying to delay, is playing games, and we have to be absolutely clear about that," Starmer said after the meeting, standing alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
There was "complete clarity that now is not the time for lifting of sanctions, quite the contrary", Starmer added.
Zelenskiy, who agreed earlier this month to proceed with ceasefire talks to ensure a resumption of U.S. aid and intelligence sharing that were briefly suspended by Trump, said heavier sanctions on Russia were required.
France pledged 2 billion euros in new military aid to Ukraine ahead of the gathering of some 30 leaders.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused France and Britain on Thursday of hatching plans for "military intervention in Ukraine" under the guise of a peacekeeping mission, adding that such an intervention could lead to a direct military clash between Russia and NATO.
Highlighting different views among Ukraine's partners, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani reiterated late on Wednesday his country's opposition to any such force.
"(We are) not sending troops on a mission unless they are part of the United Nations, (this) is the only condition for us to deploy military personnel" in Ukraine, Tajani said.
Poland has previously said it would not put boots on the ground in Ukraine, while Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said on Thursday it was "premature" to discuss sending European troops to Ukraine before the conditions of any ceasefire are known.

 

[Ordnael]

Ukraine's spy agency says Russia believes it must end the war by 2026 or risk falling far behind the US and China​

Ukraine's spy agency says Russia believes it must end the war by 2026 or risk falling far behind the US and China

Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of GUR, said Russia fears an extended war would confine it to "forever remain a regional player" in Eastern Europe.

www.businessinsider.com

• The deputy head of Ukraine's GUR said the Kremlin forecasts a need to end the war by 2026.
• Vadym Skibitsky said Moscow is likely concerned about its long-term ability to compete with the US.
• If the war drags on, its relevance could be relegated just to Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said.

Ukraine's intelligence agency said on Tuesday that Russia likely believes it must resolve its war with Kyiv by 2026, or eventually lose its chances of competing with the US and China on the world stage.

Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR, referenced forecast documents from the Kremlin at a press event in Kyiv about European security.

Business Insider could not independently verify the existence and authenticity of these documents.

"We can say that the Russian Federation has clearly defined in these documents that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026," said Skibitsky, who is also deputy head of GUR.

Skibitsky, pictured here during a separate January 2024 interview, is deputy head of the GUR. Global Images Ukraine/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
"Because if the war continues for another five to 10 years, Russia will never be able to catch up and reach the same level as the United States and China," he added.

Should this happen, Russia could stand to "forever remain a regional player" in Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said.

"And the Russian Federation clearly understands this today. That is why it foresees this in the future," he said.

Skibitsky said such Russian forecasts typically combine work from government ministries, federal agencies, and research institutions, and that the Kremlin's plans had described war scenarios as far in the future as 2045. These included conflict scenarios with Northern European states, Poland, and the Baltics, Skibitsky said.

The deputy spy chief's comments come as the White House has sought to push Ukraine and Russia toward a cease-fire. The effort has surfaced new questions about how long the war will last — and concerns in Ukraine that the resulting peace might only be achieved by giving Russia outsize concessions.

In early March, The Washington Post reported that an influential think tank in Moscow had assessed that a "peaceful resolution" to the war by 2026 would be impossible.

According to the Post, the analysis recommended a hardline, maximalist stance toward negotiations with the US and Ukraine. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the outlet that the federal government "was not aware of such recommendations" and was working with "more considered options."

Ukraine thinks Russia's costs are too high​

The head of GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, recently voiced a similar assessment of Moscow needing a 2026 deadline.

"If they don't end this war by 2026, they lose even a chance for global leadership," he told state broadcaster Ukrinform on February 27. "They will be left with, at most, a regional leadership level, which is absolutely unacceptable to them."

Budanov said that a protracted war would undermine Russia's ability to innovate in tech and compete with the US on the world stage, especially with its ability to contest the Arctic regions.

"The cost of the war is too high — the financial cost," he told Ukrinform.

Washington's leaders consider Russia as one of two near-peer competitors or potential adversaries, meaning that it has a chance of being comparable to US military might.

The other is China, which leaders in both the Biden and Trump administrations have repeatedly said is the Pentagon's main priority for preparing against threats.

The Russian Defense Ministry and the Kremlin's press office did not respond to requests for comment sent by BI.

Nice Lincoln sporting beard btw!

 

[Thorgalaeg]

So they think they are not behind US and China yet? LoL

 

[Birdjaguar]

So they think they are not behind US and China yet? LoL

Trump is going to bring them up-to-date every way he can.

 

[Zardnaar]

So they think they are not behind US and China yet? LoL

China's the great unknown. Lack of combat experience is the great unknown. How good is your doctrine and equipment.

Russia's failed hard. Even if they win their concept didn't work.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

U.S. Pressing Tough Demands in Revised Deal for Ukraine’s Minerals

The Trump administration wants revenues from Ukraine’s natural resources, according to a draft obtained by The New York Times, with no security guarantee in exchange.

www.nytimes.com

It seems Trump is clumsily looking for excuses to stop supplying Ukraine, which makes him look like a vulgar extortionist mobster.

I think Zelensky should say yes to everything, and then tear the deal into a thousand pieces when Trump is ousted or executed as a traitor (whichever comes first). The word given to a liar is worthless.

 

[Snowygerry]

It does seem increasingly likely the US elected a paid Russian agent as president, twice.

That would be the greatest political joke since the time the Germans sent Lenin to Russia to establish communism there.

Fact check: Was Donald Trump recruited by the KGB as 'Krasnov'?

A Facebook post by an ex-KGB agent claiming that Donald Trump was recruited by Moscow in 1987 under the code name "Krasnov" has sent social media into a spin. What's the story behind the claim? Euroverify investigates. #EuroVerify

www.euronews.com

I never worked for Russia," said Trump when questioned about his ties to the country by a reporter in 2019.

 

[Ordnael]

How fighting Russia in Ukraine actually works, according to a volunteer​

How fighting Russia in Ukraine actually works, according to a Ukrainian army volunteer

Macer Gifford was a volunteer fighter in Ukraine. He discusses what the war against Russia is like on the front lines.

www.businessinsider.com

There's a video on the link with a full interview...very informative stuff

Macer Gifford is a former currency trader who volunteered to fight for the Kurdish People's Defense Units, or YPG, against the Islamic State in 2015, and for the Ukrainian army against Russia in 2022.

Gifford speaks with Business Insider about what it was like being in Kyiv during the outbreak of the war and his motivations for joining as a volunteer fighter. He recounts stories from his reconnaissance unit, the 131st, and their activities in Lyman and Kherson. He also explains how FPV drones and antidrone technology are used.

Gifford covers Zelenskyy's call to action; Putin's military tactics; Russia's links with North Korea, Iran, and China; the conditions and medical welfare of Russia's troops; and his predictions for the upcoming months of the war.

He is the author of "Fighting Evil."

2025 marks three years of the Russia-Ukraine war.