Thorgalaeg
Deity
Again? Talking about propaganda, how many times has Prokrovsk fallen in the last year?
[RD] War in Ukraine: Other topics
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
- Start date
it was about to fall last year according to western media.
edit: and according to tass.com too, it's about to fall since July 2024 "difficult situation" for the Ukrainians then, and defense had "collapsed" in October (2024), followed by a possible "breakthrough" that could enable Russian to advance 150km in November (2024, again)
now it's really about to fall, according to the maps, but it's hardly a "news"
edit: and according to tass.com too, it's about to fall since July 2024 "difficult situation" for the Ukrainians then, and defense had "collapsed" in October (2024), followed by a possible "breakthrough" that could enable Russian to advance 150km in November (2024, again)
now it's really about to fall, according to the maps, but it's hardly a "news"
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And according to Ukrainian media too, which admitted difficult situation in Pokrovsk since then.
Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk direction indeed collapsed back then, which allowed Russian troops to approach the city and start its slow encirclement. I'm pretty sure that's what Tass actually reported, but you can always give a link to clarify it.
Zardnaar
Deity
Ukraine sources seem to indicate they've lost 95% of it.
Personally im expecting it to fall. Its winter now so there will be no massive breakthrough.
War will be decided this summer imho. Russian economy vs Ukraine collapse.
EnglishEdward
Deity
By summer, are you talking about a European summer or a New Zealand summer?
Zardnaar
Deity
European summer. Russian gains will be minimal from here to June.
Thorgalaeg
Deity
Russians have been talking about how the city was at the brink of collapse since early 2024 iirc. Two years to take a small 60k city and counting. It is always the same. Any town they are trying to take is always at the brink of collapse, there is a breakthrough, the supply lines are cut, Ukrainians are almost encircled... Then after years and after having lost a hundred thousand soldiers they take a worthless pile of rubble the Ukrainians have long left.
(And then red_elk dreams with russian troops, not yet in Warsaw, but even in Berlin and a Paris.
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Zardnaar
Deity
Russians have been talking about how the city was at the brink of collapse since early 2024 iirc. Two years to take a small 60k city and counting. It is always the same. Any town they are trying to take is always at the brink of collapse, there is a breakthrough, the supply lines are cut, Ukrainians are almost encircled... Then after years and after having lost a hundred thousand soldiers they take a worthless pile of rubble the Ukrainians have long left.
(And then red_elk dreams with russian troops, not yet in Warsaw, but even in Berlin and a Paris.
I wasn't reading Russian sources.
There were few Western outlets which went into "panic mode", likely to draw attention to the problem. Russian sources usually much more careful and didn't predict immediate collapse and capture of the city - as you probably know by now, after searching them.
The reason for "panic" was fall of Grodovka and Selidovo and subsequent ~25 km Russian breakthrough south of Pokrovsk to Udachnoye. Most Russian milbloggers estimated that Ukraine will deploy reserves to plug the hole and considering that Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration is about twice the size of Bakhmut, it won't be an easy task to capture it.
The reason for local collapse of Ukrainian defenses was that most Ukrainian combat-capable troops were sent to Kursk by that time, trying to gain strategic initiative and likely to capture nuclear power plant. Instead of being used more efficiently in defense, these troops were ultimately wasted, as Ukrainian adventure turned into another retreat in Sumy.
banzay13
Emperor
Poland?He and Austrian painter actually tried the "unopposed run". Nobody else is eager to repeat, aside of armchair warriors
Polish–Lithuanian occupation of Moscow - Wikipedia
amadeus
✻ Come on down! ✻
This is the effective position of many who are opposed to the war for very much practical reasons—for example, the concern of NATO expansion into Ukraine, which was already not going to happen while it was in its disheveled prewar state.
A post-Soviet Russia that is peacefully integrated into the Western commercial and alliance system wouldn’t be subjugated to the U.S. or EU because none of us have territorial designs on Russia—but the direction it is heading now, it is wasting its wealth and manpower fighting on a front that poses no threat to it.
It is a massive strategic mistake for your country, of which I have nothing against, to continue expending these resources for little gain. Donetsk and Luhansk, these aren’t going to be valuable to Russia after they’ve been invaded and shelled, destroying its productive capacity and population.
Verbose
Deity
But in 500 years time they might be part of The Russian Empire, and that's is the overarching concern here. It doesn't matter if this comes at a huge cost to Russia in the here and now, if there is no Ukranie in the end, and its lands are Russia Forever...
That's the entire strategy of collective West, making Russia spend as much resources as possible for as long as possible. Otherwise Ukraine would have agreed to sign a peace back in 2022 on much better terms than they could dream of now.
"Collective West" doesn't include Trump administration which appears to be genuinely wanting to stop it, for whatever selfish reasons they have - but cannot afford Russia's victory and Ukraine's capitulation either.
amadeus
✻ Come on down! ✻
Of course. That, nor who is in charge of the White House fundamentally changes the strategic framework for Russia if the goal is the betterment of the Russian citizenry.
If the goal is territorial aggrandizement and domination of the former Soviet republics, I still think it is a losing proposition because the relative and total power of Russia is going to be less than it otherwise would be. It may be an emotional victory, but not a material one.
That’s not really something that we know.
Capitulation without security guarantee in 2022, same today.
And Russia controlled more territory at the time of those negotiations.
Which means Ukraine is being thrown under the bus and used as a tool to weaken Russia.
It's pretty much common knowledge by now. Russia getting Pyrrhic victory, Ukraine getting wrecked.
Maybe you don't. The terms discussed in March-April 2022 were essentially reverting to status quo ante bellum. Russia tried to back down. Ukraine was persuaded they can defeat Russia militarily with Western help. Which was a delusion.
amadeus
✻ Come on down! ✻
Ukraine asked for aid, it did not ask for an invasion. There’s no moral high ground on which to criticize the West for supplying Ukraine.
“We had to start the war so we could end the war.” — Nancimir Pelotin
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