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War with Spaniards

Discussion in 'Team CivFanatics' started by 2metraninja, Feb 27, 2013.

  1. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

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    Yep, the Spaniards are in trouble. At the end of T150 (last turn), they had a single warrior in Umgung, and we are capable of hitting it with 2 knights this turn, or our SOD next turn. They also had just a single warrior in Ulundi, their capital, and we are capable of hitting that with our mobile force of 5 Knights and 2 Chariots this turn. If they decided to put everything inside of Ulundi, then we can just move right past it and head towards Nobambo, which we can hit before their stack can catch up. That would also leave Umgung undefended.

    But we do need to proceed with some caution. They completed HBR this turn so they can now begin building War Elephants. They finally performed a couple whips this turn, too. One was for 3-pop and the other was for 1-pop. I believe the 3-pop whip could have been a WE dry-whip. If at all possible, we should try to take whichever city just fell by three pop this turn before the unit can be finished. They don't have a single city in the double digits as far as I can see, so their ability to whip WE's is somewhat limited, but they are finally able to produce a unit that can actually slow us down so we just need to keep that in mind.
     
  2. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    So, Spaniards retreated Gold city to reinforce their Capitol, but they did not left us opportunity to take it this turn and move forward quick. They left 2 impis there hoping we wont risk our 2 knights on them. We need to see odds, but we need to get extremely lucky I think. And they are not slowing us that much, I need to calculate what actually this will cost us.

    Their capitol is now strongly reinforced, but we are not aiming for it with our knights anyway :) We must see if we launch the attack on Nobamba or we wait.
     
  3. vranasm

    vranasm Deity

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    hmm my pure guess the first knight will have around 60% odds... if this would be SP I would take the bet probably.

    just a reminder...when crossing rivers it's better to move the unit adjacent tile and then attack and not doing the attack move from the river tile...

    I read somewhere that the game sometimes doesn't calculate the bonuses correctly in the scenario I described (with 1 attack move instead of move+attack)
     
  4. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    They are slowing us down with 1 turn leaving those 2 impis in Gold city. Not the end of the world, but still annoying. Good thing is we will be able to join together our North and South armies and our slow catapults will catch up with the main army.
     
  5. vranasm

    vranasm Deity

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    well if we take the gamble and win then we can use the road on hill to our advantage and being 1 turn from ulundi (2 turns from correct riverside)

    it's questionable if the gamble is worth the reward... I almost think it is...

    check the odds first, but considering knight is 10 str, the bonus is on 4 str unit, it should be something like 5.5 str x 4.8 without counting for added defensive bonuses (fortification etc) the first battle

    edit:

    too bad we dont' have 2 promotions... we could have cI+shock :-( would be stomp
     
  6. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    60% would had been if those were Shock knights. Right now, it will be like 35% (Impi strength 6 and 6.4 vs our knights strength 5.5)

    That is true. It shows in the left down window odds as if there is not a river, but actually in the real combat, it takes in to consideration there is a river if you cross the river to actually attack in the finishing move. If you cross the river with your first move, it does not add defensive bonus for it. In our situation, there is no danger to be added defensive bonus. The only possible way the game to calculate the move is going south, crossing the river, and then attack SE without any river bonus.
     
  7. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    xpost with vranasm:

    Yes, would had been great to have Shock.

    And normally I would had take it too, but now, odds must be really bad and relying only on good luck for us. (Though we had bad luck last fight losing 75% + battle in the woods).

    But most of all, we need to preserve our army, as we might need to face French army and we have no great way to replenish our units. Now is time to regrow and prepare economics in our mainland.
     
  8. vranasm

    vranasm Deity

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    that one you're guessing or you already checked? I wonder how you get from 4 base str 6 with combat II...
     
  9. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    The percentages are a wild guess. But the strength I use math for and here it is:

    Impi base strength 4.

    bonuses:
    cI +10%
    cII +10%
    city culture +40%

    final Impi strength: 4*1.6= 6.4 strength (or in case with the cI Impi, 4*1.5 = 6)

    Knight base strength 10

    bonuses:
    cI +10%

    Negative : Impi +100% vs mounted ("versus" bonuses are subtracted from the enemy base strength)

    final Knight strength: 10*0.5*1.1=5.5
     
  10. vranasm

    vranasm Deity

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    ah forgot the culture thingy... yeah you're right... another bonus that is not subtracted but added
     
  11. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    So, after Bistrita tested in-game and I read a bit more about it,
    Spoiler :
    If the defending unit has an advantage vs. the attacking unit, that bonus is added to the defensive bonus. If the attacking unit has a bonus vs. the defending unit, that advantage is subtracted from the defensive bonus. City Raider bonuses are applied by subtracting the bonus value from the defensive value. But if the Impi was attacking our Knight, then our Knight strength would have been reduced to 1/2 because of the Impi +100% vs mounted
    it turns out that Vranasm was right and we will have 60+% chance on the c2 Impi and even higher on the c1 who will defend after him.

    Actual odds are 65,94% chance of win for our first knight against the c2 impi (10.4 vs 11), where against the second defender - the c1 impi, it must be like 75+%.

    The chance of our BOTH knights wins their battle combined is about 50%, so if we choose to attack, we are doing something like coin flip. If we are going to lose, we will lose only 1 knight (if our first dies, we probably wont throw our second, as we no longer have chance to take the city this turn, or if our first wins and our second wins, we obviously lose only 1 knight, as we dont have any more left), but if we win both battles, we capture this city 1 turn earlier meaning 1 turn earlier out of revolt and 1 turn earlier becoming productive. Also before the Spaniards have the chance for more devastating whips from scratch (they whipped this same city once for 3 pop and then for 1 pop and now it is size 5 out of size 9 just in the beginning of this turn). Also, we wont see what they whipped with this dry 3pop whip (most probably a War Elephant, since they already have HBR and a WE is 60 hammers, which means they can be whipped for (3*30)/1.5=60 hammers without having any hammers invested already in them), which means we will have to fight this bugger next turn too. But most of all, we will be 1 turn earlier capturing the Zulu capitol. So, we can have it in t153. Or t154 if we decide to not attack across the river.

    We both with Bistrita agreed it is worth the risk. What you guys and gals say?
     
  12. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    Plus! We had bad combat RNG last turn losing 75+% and I think it is time the game to return us the favor.

    Plus, I love how Spaniards had left their impis further unpromoted, thinking we will never actually take that chance. Lets attack and prove them wrong :) Fortuna loves the brave and bold ones.
     
  13. bistrita

    bistrita Warlord

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    city its ours,both batles were at 65%,which i realy dont understand since second impis was just combat 1 and no forty bonus.
     
  14. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I'll sit with you

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    I agree. It is well worth it. If we lose, they lose the city next turn anyway. And if we win we not only show those b@stards our courageous mettle, we also deny them their whipped WarEle :D
    Agree with All three of those points. Well said:clap:
     
  15. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    You mean we kill the unborn RB War Elephant?
    :devil:

    Poor beasts travel half the world only to die in vain.
     
  16. vranasm

    vranasm Deity

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    thsoe 10% between C1 and C2 isn't probably that big of difference, but great news...

    we gambled and get big reward.

    I think metra underestimate the big impact of the hill road for our stack movement towards ulundi in his analysis ;-)
     
  17. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    It is big difference between c1 and c2, it was something different reason.

    As for the hill road to Ulundi we would had moved our whole stack on it if we were to wait to trake Godl city next turn. So we would had started from there. Or you mean something else?
     
  18. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    Now I think that the tile marked "t149" will be free of zulu culture and we can advance trough there with 3 FWs and be able to attack Ulundi in 2 turns without having to cross the river.

    Or maybe Spaniards will give us finally decisive battle and us being across the river will be good?
     
  19. Aivoturso

    Aivoturso King

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    This is the kind of superstitious behaviour we must not base our decisions on. RNG does not have memory. (OK, technically it kind of does, but not in the sense that you can deduce outcome of future rolls from the previous ones.) Losing 75% battle last turn has no impact whatsoever on any battle on this turn. Gambling is fine, but the decisions must be based on reality. In the end the decisions should be based on expected cost/benefit. E.g. in 50-50 case if winning has high benefit and cost of losing is not too high (think of 1 turn faster war vs. losing one knight), then we should take the risk. Otherwise we shouldn't.

    BTW, nice we had luck on our side this time:goodjob:
     
  20. Aivoturso

    Aivoturso King

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    Fortification?
     

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