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War with Spaniards

Discussion in 'Team CivFanatics' started by 2metraninja, Feb 27, 2013.

  1. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    If I read correctly what Bistrita and Vranasm said, we had the RNG % Odds on our side not luck ;).

    It was a good decision to attack, both tactically and odds-wise... there was nothing "superstitious" about it.
     
  2. Aivoturso

    Aivoturso King

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    About 50 % odds or even 55 % odds IMO are not that much on our side that I would take it for granted that we win. And in this case the odds were not on our side at all. Two 65 % attacks required means about 42 % odds to get the city. Thus, we were lucky. On tactical side I agree that attacking was a good decision. Losing one knight is not that big of a loss. Getting the city is at least somewhat big of a gain since we want to beat CivFr to the remaining cities. Odds-wise it was a gamble. Not a high risk gamble, but a gamble anyway.

    Besides, that was not really what I was commenting anyway. Taking the gamble was a good decision. But claiming that RNG is due to work in our favour since we lost last time is superstitious. Even if these comments are now made jokingly, there is a risk that people start to think in this fashion. Human beings, us included, are in the end rather superstitious creatures. For that reason I will always comment on any misunderstanding or misuse of statistics.
     
  3. vranasm

    vranasm Deity

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    since we have construction our stack should get over the river to hill and then over the another 1T quicker towards Ulundi...

    unless I totally forgot how to play this game ;-). we probably need split some forces as guards

    I hope we did move only the knights for the attack and now will move the rest of stack towards ulundi

    edit:
    the assumption is there is no spain culture on the hill with road 1N above the city
     
  4. vranasm

    vranasm Deity

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    with 2 knights it was gamble... I agree, if we had there 3 I would be pretty confident and not take it as gamble...

    but there is some saying about luck favoring the prepared and brave ones.
     
  5. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    "Fortune favors the bold"

    "Luck favors the prepared"

    "Chance favors only the prepared mind"

    "Luck = Opportunity + Preparation"

    ;)
     
  6. bistrita

    bistrita Warlord

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    people who said this was high risk or major risk i want to tell was this risking a knigt at 65,97% to get a city.Most likely next turn there would have been an elphant which to be killed would have to take a 50% odds with a mace on him,or to use cat which would have died for sure nad gave lik 65%(in most cases) to our maces to elpahnt.And they could whiped the city again for 2 pop so woud ge a city size 2.

    So after reading all this the one which were so vehement about risk still think this was a high risk one?
     
  7. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

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    Yeah, that was definitely worth the risk. Just having a shot at killing the unborn WE was enough to justify the attack. Getting to their capital one turn earlier, preventing them from whipping the city again, reducing their morale further, these are all just added benefits. Great decision and great execution!

    In the north, last turn we used three FW's to chop a Zulu forest, allowing our knights / chariots to advance within striking distance of Ulundi. I assume we want to use those FW's to chop the forest north of the knight / chariot stack to allow a chariot to move up and raze the undefended size 1 city this turn?

    Did we confirm that the farmed FP labeled T149 lose Spanish culture this turn? That would be another great boost allowing us to get on the east side of the Ulundi river one turn faster.

    I think we should quietly start moving our Knights into Nongoma so we have the option of attacking the French core if we decide to go that route.
     
  8. bistrita

    bistrita Warlord

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    well we have a woodsman 2 axe there if we want to that.i think will let that to be last city so to spare us an setler.
     
  9. Maga_R

    Maga_R Has quit civ

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    Yes, WE to be born next turn made the expected returns very good on that play.
     
  10. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    I did not missed that part at all, I said we gain 1 turn faster attack date against Spanish capitol. ANd this was the main benefit I had put as reason to attack this turn.
     
  11. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

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    Yep, the Spaniards have finally learned how to whip. They performed two 1-pop whips, a 2-pop whip and a 3-pop whip this turn. I think it's safe to assume that these were all for WE's.

    Time to move quick quick quick! With the great intel from CP that the French have units in the desert isthmus area, I think we can delay an attack against them for now and concentrate on taking out the Spaniards as quickly as possible before they finish whipping their cities down.
     
  12. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

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    We need to figure out how to take out the Spaniard's Dyes resource. They are trading it to RB in exchange for Ivory. What happens to the trade if they lose dyes? I imagine that they continue getting the Ivory, it just becomes free? But if the trade is cancelled entirely that would be brilliant. Even if they still get the Ivory, it would be good to cut off a happy resource from RB, which they say they really need.

    Anyways, the Dyes is up by their northwest, so no easy task to take it out.
     
  13. bistrita

    bistrita Warlord

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    The deal will canceled , but yeah not esy to take.
     
  14. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    If the dye is not covered by a city, then we can sabotage it with a Spy. As soon as the dye is destroyed, the deal with RB for Ivory will be automatically cancelled, and they will simultaneously lose all their production on WEs they are building or whipping. Sabotage-tile is one of the cheapest espy missions to do BTW.

    So, yeah... Spies away!:espionage:
     
  15. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    If all works as expected, Spaniards will be eliminated next turn, so no more worries about their little trades with RB or CIvFR.
     
  16. 2metraninja

    2metraninja Defender of Nabaxica

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    Also, except RB have 2 Elephants resources, the talks how the Dye they get from Spaniards are pure form of BS. RB give 1 happy and receive 1 happy. The idea behind the whole deal was to make it harder for us to conquer Zululand.
     
  17. bistrita

    bistrita Warlord

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    Dont think will be eliminated they have another city, the barb one.
     
  18. RegentMan

    RegentMan Deity

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    Dang that was fast! :lol:
     
  19. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

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    Let's sue for peace and let the Frenchies take Chinook against the WEs? No, that's a horrible idea, I don't think the Frenchies have even DOWed the Spaniards yet :lol:

    I have to hand it to our generals, this war was executed beautifully. I hope it sent a chill down RB's collective spine. Now we really have to get serious in figuring out what we want to do against the French over the next twenty turns. I think there is some major damage that can be done just with our existing troops. Setting up a trap in the isthmus to eliminate their army sounds like lots of fun ;)
     
  20. YossarianLives

    YossarianLives Deity

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    The end is nigh. The Spaniards threw everything at our stack. Two GGs were born. Blood soaks the Ulundi countryside. I'll post the event log from aptmod when I get to a computer.
     

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