What are the worst odds of Combat that you have seen win a fight?

[classical_hero]

Recently in a game of mine I had Spanish Chariot attack a Mace on a hill. The mace was slightly injured, but more than enough to be able to defeat this attacking Chariot. The thing is that the chariot won while it only had a 1.6% chance of winning the battle?
Do any of you have worse odds than that of either you being on the winning end or the losing end?

I could not believe that this happened, but it is one of those WTH moments in civ.

 

[Common Sensei]

On the flip side of the coin, I once had a Scout win while defending against an Axeman who had Combat I and Shock in open plains. Don't know what the odds were, but it would have been < 0.01% if Scouts could attack and display win odds.

 

[lulu135]

A Scout is not a "melee" unit so shock doesn't apply. It's still unlikely tho.

 

[Arlborn]

I got 1.2%. I was trying to damage the longbowman in the city with a wounded unit(chariot? Can't remember, maybe horse archer). But then I lost a 90~% fight and a 80~% fight right after...

 

[ParadigmShifter]

The scout thing, I think you get "free" wins against barbarians on lower difficulty levels. I played the recent G-Minor (settler space race challenge) and one of my scouts survived an attack from a barb swordsman. It was the first barb encounter of the game though, so I guess the free win applied in that case.

 

[DigitalBoy]

If I recall correctly (not always the case), I had a chariot lose to a barbarian warrior when it had a ~99% chance of winning.

 

[Gaius Octavius]

I didn't even know you played Civ 4, classic hero! The lowest odds that I can remember from my personal experience were in the 1-5% range. All I can say is, these things do rarely occur.

 

[Silence101]

Just the other day, I lost a battle at 98.+%... but then I won my next battle (I expected to lose) with only something like 25% odds, so it all worked out in the end.

I've acutally lost quite a few battles at 90+%... I'm sure I've even lost a few at 99%, but I don't remember what the absolute highest I lost at was. It happens from time to time, and while it can really spoil your war plans, that's what makes the game unpredictable and challenging.

 

[Mehmed100]

My best odds were when I went into the Word Builder and put in a Modern Armor. I gave myself a gigantic stack of spearmen and archers. I attacked with an archer with odds of 0.01% and won.

 

[classical_hero]

I didn't even know you played Civ 4, classic hero! The lowest odds that I can remember from my personal experience were in the 1-5% range. All I can say is, these things do rarely occur.

Go to the Civ4 mutliplayer forums and you will see me hanging out there more often. This combat result is actually from one a my few SP games. Normally I prefer to play against humans and learn he hard way.

 

[DigitalBoy]

My best odds were when I went into the Word Builder and put in a Modern Armor. I gave myself a gigantic stack of spearmen and archers. I attacked with an archer with odds of 0.01% and won.

One time I put a barbarian machine gunner (Drill I through Drill IV) on a forest hill and spawned about 50 warriors next to him. Attacked him with the first warrior and did about 60 HP damage to him, and killed him with the second one (both had <.01% of winning).

Maybe this is going back to that free kill thing?

 

[classical_hero]

On the flip side of the coin, I once had a Scout win while defending against an Axeman who had Combat I and Shock in open plains. Don't know what the odds were, but it would have been < 0.01% if Scouts could attack and display win odds.

To find the odds all you need to do is look it up via the events log and there is a section for how the combat odds were like for each battle.

 

[Common Sensei]

The scout thing, I think you get "free" wins against barbarians on lower difficulty levels. I played the recent G-Minor (settler space race challenge) and one of my scouts survived an attack from a barb swordsman. It was the first barb encounter of the game though, so I guess the free win applied in that case.

This was a rival civ's Axeman, so no freebie for me, just stupid luck.

 

[r_rolo1]

To the OP:

0.03% (Korean UU vs infantry, if I can recall correctly). Never happened again

P.S Still in warlords ( korean UU in BtS can't kill in offense anymore )

 

[The Foo]

The best thing about these freak victories is the XP you get afterwards. I once had a left-over warrior defeat an enemy axeman. He got two levels from that one fight.

Then he died the next turn.

 

[VLGoldenJew]

I've lost a 99.5%, and I've won a 2.3% I think it was. I believe the 99.5% was an axeman or a mace against a weaker melee unit, the 2.3 was a mounted unit attacking into a walls/hill city.

I was pissed when I lost the 99.5%, the 2.3% I didn't realize what happened until 2-3 attacks later (was sending a stack of doom against a city).

 

[WhimpyCiv]

The lowest odds that I can remember from my personal experience were in the 1-5% range. All I can say is, these things do rarely occur.

Yeah, I'd say that losing at thise odds occurs rarely ... probably ... about, what ... say, 1-5% of the time?

-- WC

 

[Gre_Magus]

I'm pretty sure I've seen odds of less than .01 (I think it actually says <.01). I've never won like that, though.

I've also seen >99.9. Usually that's when I'm attacking a wounded unit.

 

[karlis]

Once lost a well promoted great general unit at 99.8% odds! Boy was that annoying!

 

[MrCynical]

I can recall a few losses at 99.9%+ but given I must go through thousands of individual combats, sometimes in a single game, this isn't that surprising. I can also recall a couple of occasions pre-BtS when I had suicide catapults win at odds of 0.3% and lower.