What If Napoleon Succeeded In Egypt?

[Caesar of Bread]

This is a question on if Napoleon I Bonaparte had won his Egyptian campaign (killing Lord Nelson at the Battle Of The Nile), and had taken the Holy Land as well. What would ensue?

 

[Birdjaguar]

If he had, then his decision would have been whether to return to France or establish his own ME "empire". If he stayed, then certainly European history would be very different and that would likely be true if he only stayed for 3-5 years and then went back to France for whatever reason. The difficulty with remaining in Egypt would be retaining an army and the degree to which he could retain, and acquire more, French soldiers. Much of napoleon's success was built on the support he had from his army's rank and file.

 

[Ajidica]

Napoleon was already operating at the ends of his logistics capacity, and suffered a defeat as a result during the Siege of Acre. The French invasion of Egypt was an adventure with little clear rationale behind it.
Supposing Napoleon did win at Acre, what of it? The Ottoman Sultanate was not the power that laid siege to Vienna at this point, but neither was it the 'sick man of Europe', and was fully capable of putting up a fight. Napoleon would find himself still stuck at the wrong end of the Med with a long supply line and a large British naval force raiding any ships sailing to France.

In many respects, a Napoleon victory in the Near East would probably be a good thing for the British and Coalition as it meant Napoleon and his army was stuck in a malarial backwater and not in Europe!

 

[Caesar of Bread]

Napoleon was already operating at the ends of his logistics capacity, and suffered a defeat as a result during the Siege of Acre. The French invasion of Egypt was an adventure with little clear rationale behind it.
Supposing Napoleon did win at Acre, what of it? The Ottoman Sultanate was not the power that laid siege to Vienna at this point, but neither was it the 'sick man of Europe', and was fully capable of putting up a fight. Napoleon would find himself still stuck at the wrong end of the Med with a long supply line and a large British naval force raiding any ships sailing to France.

In many respects, a Napoleon victory in the Near East would probably be a good thing for the British and Coalition as it meant Napoleon and his army was stuck in a malarial backwater and not in Europe!

Note: The Battle of the Nile ITTL is a major disaster (with Lord Nelson dying)

 

[Ajidica]

What then? Britain still had a large navy available for redeployment and the French navy was still on the far end of the Med with battle damage.
The French fleet was forced to defend a fixed position with no capacity to withdraw if the battle was going badly. The British could withdraw if the battle turned against them and stalk the French fleet until reinforcements arrived or there were favorable conditions.
Assuming the British make mistakes or the French get lucky, it is likely going to be a messy pyrrhic victory for the French.

 

[Caesar of Bread]

Oh. So here's the timeline so far:

• Napoleon defeats Lord Nelson at the Battle of the Nile. Egypt becomes French.
• Somehow, Napoleon also wins at Acre. This causes many casualties on both Ottoman and French sides.
• French do an underground Sealion?
• And what about the Austrians and others who are fighting France?

 

[Ajidica]

Uhhhhh 'underground Sealion'?
Like, they take the Eurotunnel back in time 200 years and invade through that?
Simple solution.

 

[Henri Christophe]

I think if the Navy of Napoleon was strong enouth to defeat British Navy, France should'nt lost heir empire on Americas.
What is a bad thing, since Napoleon fought directly with Toussain L'Ouverture, and despite L'Ouverture died in a French jail, the Haitian revolution suceed.


I just don't know about the fate of Lousiana, if Napoleon sold that to US after lost the navy. If Napoleon won, I guess he didn't should sell the Lousiana also

 

[Caesar of Bread]

I think if the Navy of Napoleon was strong enouth to defeat British Navy, France should'nt lost heir empire on Americas.
What is a bad thing, since Napoleon fought directly with Toussain L'Ouverture, and despite L'Ouverture died in a French jail, the Haitian revolution suceed.


I just don't know about the fate of Lousiana, if Napoleon sold that to US after lost the navy. If Napoleon won, I guess he didn't should sell the Lousiana also

This was actually a profit for Napoleon, as his nation was in bankrupcy. America also needed the land because of reasons

 

[Birdjaguar]

This was actually a profit for Napoleon, as his nation was in bankrupcy. America also needed the land because of reasons

The actual situation was more complicated than that.

Background​

1804 map of "Louisiana", bounded on the west by the Rocky Mountains
Throughout the second half of the 18th century, the French colony of Louisiana became a pawn for European political intrigue.[4] The colony was the most substantial presence of France's overseas empire, with other possessions consisting of a few small settlements along the Mississippi and other main rivers. France ceded the territory to Spain in 1762 in the secret Treaty of Fontainebleau. Following French defeat in the Seven Years' War, Spain gained control of the territory west of the Mississippi, and the British received the territory to the east of the river.[5]

Following the establishment of the United States, the Americans controlled the area east of the Mississippi and north of New Orleans. The main issue for the Americans was free transit of the Mississippi out to sea. As the lands were being gradually settled by American migrants, many Americans, including Jefferson, assumed that the territory would be acquired "piece by piece." The risk of another power taking it from a weakened Spain made a "profound reconsideration" of this policy necessary.[4] New Orleans was already important for shipping agricultural goods to and from the areas of the United States west of the Appalachian Mountains. Pinckney's Treaty, signed with Spain on October 27, 1795, gave American merchants "right of deposit" in New Orleans, granting them use of the port to store goods for export. The treaty also recognized American rights to navigate the entire Mississippi, which had become vital to the growing trade of the western territories.[5]

In 1798, Spain revoked the treaty allowing American use of New Orleans, greatly upsetting Americans. In 1801, Spanish Governor Don Juan Manuel de Salcedo took over from the Marquess of Casa Calvo, and restored the American right to deposit goods. However, in 1800 Spain had ceded the Louisiana territory back to France as part of Napoleon's secret Third Treaty of San Ildefonso.[6] The territory nominally remained under Spanish control, until a transfer of power to France on November 30, 1803, just three weeks before the formal cession of the territory to the United States on December 20, 1803.[7]

Negotiation​

The future president James Monroe as envoy extraordinary and minister plenipotentiary to France helped Robert R. Livingston in negotiating the Louisiana Purchase

While the transfer of the territory by Spain back to France in 1800 went largely unnoticed, fear of an eventual French invasion spread across America when, in 1801, Napoleon sent a military force to secure New Orleans. Though Jefferson urged moderation, Federalists sought to use this against Jefferson and called for hostilities against France. Undercutting them, Jefferson threatened an alliance with Britain, although relations were uneasy in that direction.[8] In 1801, Jefferson supported France in its plan to take back Saint-Domingue (present-day Haiti), which was then under control of Toussaint Louverture after a slave rebellion. Jefferson sent Livingston to Paris in 1801[9] with the authorization to purchase New Orleans.

In January 1802, France sent General Charles Leclerc on an expedition to Saint-Domingue to reassert French control over a colony that had become essentially autonomous under Louverture. Louverture, as a French general, had fended off incursions from other European powers, but had also begun to consolidate power for himself on the island. Before the revolution, France had derived enormous wealth from St. Domingue at the cost of the lives and freedom of the slaves. Napoleon wanted its revenues and productivity for France restored. Alarmed over the French actions and its intention to re-establish an empire in North America, Jefferson declared neutrality in relation to the Caribbean, refusing credit and other assistance to the French, but allowing war contraband to get through to the rebels to prevent France from regaining a foothold.[10]

In 1803, Pierre Samuel du Pont de Nemours, a French nobleman, began to help negotiate with France at the request of Jefferson. Du Pont was living in the United States at the time and had close ties to Jefferson as well as the prominent politicians in France. He engaged in back-channel diplomacy with Napoleon on Jefferson's behalf during a visit to France and originated the idea of the much larger Louisiana Purchase as a way to defuse potential conflict between the United States and Napoleon over North America.[11]

Throughout this time, Jefferson had up-to-date intelligence on Napoleon's military activities and intentions in North America. Part of his evolving strategy involved giving du Pont some information that was withheld from Livingston. Desperate to avoid possible war with France, Jefferson sent James Monroe to Paris in 1803 to negotiate a settlement, with instructions to go to London to negotiate an alliance if the talks in Paris failed. Spain procrastinated until late 1802 in executing the treaty to transfer Louisiana to France, which allowed American hostility to build. Also, Spain's refusal to cede Florida to France meant that Louisiana would be indefensible.

Napoleon needed peace with Britain to take possession of Louisiana. Otherwise, Louisiana would be an easy prey for a potential invasion from Britain or the U.S. But in early 1803, continuing war between France and Britain seemed unavoidable. On March 11, 1803, Napoleon began preparing to invade Great Britain..0

In Saint-Domingue, Leclerc's forces took Louverture prisoner, but their expedition soon faltered in the face of fierce resistance and disease. By early 1803, Napoleon decided to abandon his plans to rebuild France's New World empire. Without sufficient revenues from sugar colonies in the Caribbean, Louisiana had little value to him. Spain had not yet completed the transfer of Louisiana to France, and war between France and the UK was imminent. Out of anger towards Spain and the unique opportunity to sell something that was useless and not truly his yet, Napoleon decided to sell the entire territory.[12]

Although the foreign minister Talleyrand opposed the plan, on April 10, 1803, Napoleon told the Treasury Minister François Barbé-Marbois that he was considering selling the entire Louisiana Territory to the United States. On April 11, 1803, just days before Monroe's arrival, Barbé-Marbois offered Livingston all of Louisiana for $15 million,[13] which averages to less than three cents per acre (7¢/ha).[14][15] The total of $15 million is equivalent to about $337 million in 2021 dollars, or 64 cents per acre. The American representatives were prepared to pay up to $10 million for New Orleans and its environs but were dumbfounded when the vastly larger territory was offered for $15 million. Jefferson had authorized Livingston only to purchase New Orleans. However, Livingston was certain that the United States would accept the offer.[16]

The Americans thought that Napoleon might withdraw the offer at any time, preventing the United States from acquiring New Orleans, so they agreed and signed the Louisiana Purchase Treaty on April 30, 1803, (10 Floréal XI in the French Republican calendar) at the Hôtel Tubeuf in Paris.[17] The signers were Robert Livingston, James Monroe, and François Barbé-Marbois.[18] After the signing Livingston famously stated, "We have lived long, but this is the noblest work of our whole lives... From this day the United States take their place among the powers of the first rank."[19] On July 4, 1803, the treaty was announced,[20] but the documents did not arrive in Washington, D.C. until July 14.[21] The Louisiana Territory was vast, stretching from the Gulf of Mexico in the south to Rupert's Land in the north, and from the Mississippi River in the east to the Rocky Mountains in the west. Acquiring the territory doubled the size of the United States.

In November 1803, France withdrew its 7,000 surviving troops from Saint-Domingue (more than two-thirds of its troops died there) and gave up its ambitions in the Western Hemisphere.[22] In 1804 Haiti declared its independence; but fearing a slave revolt at home, Jefferson and the rest of Congress refused to recognize the new republic, the second in the Western Hemisphere, and imposed a trade embargo against it. This, together with the successful French demand for an indemnity of 150 million francs in 1825, severely hampered Haiti's ability to repair its economy after decades of war.[23]

​

 

[¯\_ (ツ)_/¯]

In 1798, Napoleon certainly wanted to make a name for himself & establish France a dominant empire beyond Europe. I am not sure that the French treasury was big enough to do that after the French Revolution. A great deal of money was spent in the wars against Britain earlier in the century.