SeleucusNicator
Diadoch
Winner said:Of course it does.
You're right when saying that in the worst possible case, US can be self-sufficient. Yes, probably it can, at least in food production and the most of industrial production. But the costs of being self-sufficient is enormous, it would decrease the living standard of population many times - that's why the countries which are trying to be self-sufficient are the poorest ones.
The "trade peace theory" works if the interdependence is enough high and both countries have governments which need public support to remain in power. Yes, it doesn't work entirely, there is always possibility that one or another government will simply act irrationally, but in general, I think the more trade exist between two countries, the lesser is the probability of war between them.
I don't think your example with Britain and Germany before WW1 is correct. The trade exchange before WW1 is nothing comparable with today's trade volume. Also, both Germany and Britain weren't democracies in today's standards.
This is an open debate in academica, so I doubt we'll get anywhere on a webforum. There aren't any real test cases either, which makes it more difficult.
But, some points:
- Nations show a high tolerance for difficulty at home during a war, independent of government type.
- Great Powers, by definition, have a strong domestic resource base. I think you overestimate the difficulty, if not the costs, of going without the cheapest source of such and such good for a while.
- You seem to argue that choosing national security over trade is "irrational". I disagree; one cannot make profit without being alive.
- You seem to believe that a nation's form of government makes a significant difference as to its behavior in the international system. That is a whole nother argument we could have, but for the sake of thsi discussion just know that I dispute it.