Ron Paul is popular among both conservatives, liberals, and libertarians. He has broad support among libertarians and members of the Constitution Party, as well. It may be possible that if Ron Paul would run as an Independent, forming the "Ron Paul for America Party", he might get be able to unite Libertarians, Constitution Party members, and millions of disaffected Republicans and Democrats. He still probably wouldn't win, but he might be able to get a decent enough percentage of the popular vote and get the party to be treated fairly in the next election instead of being snuffed out by the big two.
It depends on who the Republican candidate is. If it is Fredy Thompson, then I expect he would get around 3-4%. If it is Romney, probably about 5-6%. If it is Rudy Giuliani, then probably close to 8% or so.
Ron Paul's base is made up of the old school conservatives. The less appealing the Republican candidate is to those kinds of people, the larger percentage he would get if he ran as an independent.
To be fair, he has run for President before, as a Libertarian candidate, and he didn't do well. He would probably do better after having been in the spotlight, but short of the Democrats nominating Stalin and the Republicans Hitler, he couldn't win.
Fifty said:
He'd get 110% of the popular vote. His entire support base is a few random people on the internet who never leave home (since I've never met a Ron Paul supporter outside the internets), some of whom undoubtedly could figure out a way to haxor the voting machines and make him win 110% of the vote.
I have a friend who kind of likes him (Although I think he's realistic enough that he doesn't think of himself as a supporter, since he knows he can't win) and one of his friends, who while travelling with my friend stayed with us, is a serious Ron Paul guy. He's just what you would expect, actually - nice enough, but rather naive about how things actually work, with a tendency to make smarmy remarks about the federal government at random times. Sort of elitist, actually, just in an odd way. "Ron Paul supports the Constitution, the Republicans and Democrats don't!" "Calvinists believe in the sovereignty of God, Arminians and Catholics don't!" (Oh yeah, he's Presbyterian
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I can't say how representative that is of the movement as a whole, but as far as I can tell, most people don't know who Ron Paul is, and most who do aren't don't love him. Seems to be either you dislike him or you want to bear his children (Even if you're a guy), with no in between.