What will the Middle East be like in 30 years?

What will the Middle East be like in 30 years?

  • Israel no longer exists

    Votes: 4 5.5%
  • Israel is at peace with the Arab world

    Votes: 8 11.0%
  • Israel is still at war with Arab world

    Votes: 47 64.4%
  • Iraq is a liberal democracy

    Votes: 15 20.5%
  • Iraq is a dictatorship/theocracy

    Votes: 33 45.2%
  • There are one or more new nuclear powers in the ME

    Votes: 45 61.6%
  • The West has fought another war against an Arab nation

    Votes: 50 68.5%
  • Two Arab nations have fought another war against each other

    Votes: 44 60.3%
  • Western nations have installed democracies in several Arab nations

    Votes: 11 15.1%
  • Popular democratic uprisings have succeeded in several Arab nations

    Votes: 15 20.5%
  • ME oil is nearly or completely exhausted

    Votes: 33 45.2%
  • Oil nations have invested most of their oil wealth in tourism (a la Dubai)

    Votes: 14 19.2%
  • Oil nations have invested most of their oil wealth in military power

    Votes: 25 34.2%
  • Oil nations revert back to third world status when their oil dries up

    Votes: 24 32.9%
  • The Arab world is more integrated with the Western world

    Votes: 16 21.9%
  • Some Arab countries are as reclusive as North Korea is now

    Votes: 26 35.6%
  • Middle East terrorists are still a big problem for the West

    Votes: 35 47.9%
  • Much of the ME will be underwater

    Votes: 3 4.1%
  • Much of the ME will be in a nuclear winter

    Votes: 10 13.7%
  • There's no way to say. It's all random

    Votes: 18 24.7%

  • Total voters
    73

ShannonCT

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What will the Middle East be like in 30 years? What will happen when Mid-east nations can no longer count on oil for wealth? What's going to happen to Israel? Will relations between the ME and the West improve or get worse?

Poll to follow...
 
If Iran develops nuclear weapons, I give it a 50-50 chance of being a nuclear waste-land. If Iran does not, it will probably be the same as it ever was.
 
In thirty years if you ask this question people will say "what is the Middle East?"

On a more serious note I think their terrorist supporting regimes will collapse after the advent of electric fuel.
 
Trajan12 said:
On a more serious note I think their terrorist supporting regimes will collapse after the advent of artificial fuel.

You mean gasoline (petrol)? Or hydrogen fuel cells? Or something new?

Fossil fuels are still the cheapest source of energy right now. And the increased demand from India and China should prop up prices for any energy source. I think oil will continue to be very valuable as long as it can be extracted cheaply.
 
ShannonCT said:
You mean gasoline (petrol)? Or hydrogen fuel cells? Or something new?

Fossil fuels are still the cheapest source of energy right now. And the increased demand from India and China should prop up prices for any energy source. I think oil will continue to be very valuable as long as it can be extracted cheaply.
I meant electrical energy. I can't wait for that. Then their political clout will be right out the window. If we can get Turkey to side with Europe and keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Then we no longer have to bother with them. I wish I could live to see the day...
 
I am an optimist, so I went with optimistic outcomes.
 
Pretty much the same as it is now.


Israel isn't going anywhere. Oil will not suddenly stop flowing in 30 years and even if the rest of the world greatly reduces oil use it will still be a profitable and important commodity. There still will be religious extremists and there will still be violence.
 
It really depends on who becomes president next election.
 
It's really hard to say, as there are many possible scenarios. I'm pretty sure on a few things though.

1) Israel will still exist.
2) The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be unsolved.
3) The USA will play a smaller role in ME politics than today.
4) Terrorism will no longer be the driving force behind western policy in the ME.
5) Democracy will still be on a very small stage of development.
 
Things won't get any better, terrorism will increase, and any attempt from a western country to bring order will result in failure or utter dependance or both.
 
As soon as the oil dries up or alternative fuels are made more efficient, no one will give a stuff about the ME, imo, except maybe dubai, because theyre the only ones trying to develop more industries etc.
 
John HSOG said:
If Iran develops nuclear weapons, I give it a 50-50 chance of being a nuclear waste-land. If Iran does not, it will probably be the same as it ever was.

How exactly, Israel has nukes but never would consider using them, Pakistan an India do, but never would consider using them, I think your answering questions that are based on a lack of logic, I think your extrapolating based on your own countries opinion. Ahmadenijad, is not so stupid as you may think? And of course your making assumptions that they will have nukes.

The Middle East would be a hell of a lot better if we kept the hell out of its way. But then we've never tried that...

EDIT: OP: we wont it'll be the same old disaster and fools will be claiming we can sort it out, by using useless policies and supporting useless regimes, and playing stupid games. Same old same old rinse and repeat.
 
Wow, I really said all of that?!!!
 
Forces of convergence are too strong for Israel to hold its supreme advantage over the Arab world for another 30 years.

Israel will have to accept some sort of peace and give up its settlement policy.
 
Sobieski II said:
Forces of convergence are too strong for Israel to hold its supreme advantage over the Arab world for another 30 years.

Israel will have to accept some sort of peace and give up its settlement policy.

In order to do so the US will have to give up it's bias and the constant veto, they'll have to create a balance, they won't but they need to. It's a bleak future if their are only evil states, not states that want peace, frankly the West has completely screwed the whole situation, Europe and the US have absolutely frigged up, and I see no reason that we won't continue to. Theirs alot at stake, but frankly the only thing that could solve it is common sense and we have precious little of that in our history. So no it's going to be a hell hole.
 
I think it will be same as now, some states will be more democratic but not too much. However in 30 years should be happen too much (Chinese infantries should invading Iran or Gerorgia may conquer Russia:D....)
 
Sidhe said:
In order to do so the US will have to give up it's bias and the constant veto, they'll have to create a balance, they won't but they need to. It's a bleak future if their are only evil states, not states that want peace, frankly the West has completely screwed the whole situation, Europe and the US have absolutely frigged up, and I see no reason that we won't continue to. Theirs alot at stake, but frankly the only thing that could solve it is common sense and we have precious little of that in our history. So no it's going to be a hell hole.

Yes, no one you have mentioned is innocent, but ultimately it is the Israel right wing that will have to bend and change on its own. Hizbulluah's success in Lebanon showed that Israel's conventional power has limits, and it is only a matter of time before someone in the region breaks Israel's nuclear monopoly.

There may be a lot of religious fanatics in the Likud party, but not enough of them want to risk even a single Arab/Iranian nuclear bomb going off in Israel, just so they can keep annexing difficult to defend West Bank land.

As useful as the Americans and Europeans COULD be, the middle easterners are gonna have to solve this on their own.
 
Barring any great calamities and disruptions, it will a continuation of present trends. Shiite power will grow, oil will run dry and the more proxies war will occur.

Some specific predictions:

Israel and Palestine: they will be continuing Israeli incursions into the territories, and continuing Palestinian rocket and suicide attacks.

Iraq: Becomes, either in fact or in practice, divided into three states (Kurdish North, Sunni Center and Shiite South). The South will be a puppet of Iran and Turkey will undermine the North. Wars will break out between new sectarian states, and become proxies for the United States and Iran

Iran: Get nuclear power, eventually getting nuclear bombs. Continued growth in power. Increased links between other regimes with anti-American agendas.

Gulf States (Kuwait, UAE): Continued growth and secularization. Will become targets for radical Muslims with secularization.
 
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