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What would happened if Republicans had won Spanish civil war?

Discussion in 'World History' started by Josu, Jan 26, 2012.

  1. Josu

    Josu Chieftain

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    This is something I always have wanted to Know.
    What would happened if Republicans had won Spanish civil war?

    Do you think Hitler would have try to invade Spain?
    Do you think that the Spanish republic would join the allies?
    Do you think that the Spanish republic would be able to mantain the calm in Spain?
     
  2. Traitorfish

    Traitorfish The Tighnahulish Kid

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    Depends on how they win it. If the turning point is early on, then you're looking at the revolution in Catalonia spilling over into other areas, with serious implications for France, especially if the Popular Front had maintained its momentum, and perhaps even Portugal and Italy. Outcome there is basically impossible to predict, because you're suddenly dealing with a much broader number of major actors, although I wouldn't expect it to have the same level of immediate, international impact as the October Revolution. If later, when the revolutionary bloc had been contained, you're probably looking at something approximate to a more liberal version of the post-war "people's democracies", lead by the PSOE rather than the PCE, although the latter would form a vital bridge to the Soviets. Not sure how it pans out from there, but I certainly wouldn't expect the Second World War to break out as it did, and even a rough approximation (i.e. some form of Western Allies vs Axis conflict) is far from certain. Big question is probably how this changes the relationship between the Western powers and the Soviet Union, whether it increases mutual hostility, or whether it convinces the Western powers that Communist popular frontism can be relied upon, perhaps even as a way of containing CNT-FIA/POUM-style radicalism.
     
  3. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Challenge accepted

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    They'd shoot all the fascists and fascist symphatisers, so yes, probably.
     
  4. Azale

    Azale Chieftain

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    Use paragraphs mang :p Also, I really wished I remembered the alphabet soup of political organizations from the Spanish Civil War.

    I don't share your enthusiasm for the export of anarchist revolution. Conditions in Catalonia were very specific to that region, how does it spread?

    I think WW2 still unfolds mostly in the same fashion. The defeat of Franco would not have deterred Hitler, and depending on how early it was, it might have actually saved some face for Mussolini (less time for him to exhibit Italy's utter military incompetence in Spain).

    The only thing I can say for sure is that the real we-love-stalin communists would have remained marginalized, the socialists and libs would have maintained a tenuous understanding with the Catalonian anarchists & Basques, and many less people would have died (even counting the summary execution of fascist sympathizers).
     
  5. Traitorfish

    Traitorfish The Tighnahulish Kid

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    PSOE is the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, the centre-left party. PCE is the Spanish Communist Party. CNT-FIA is the National Confederation of Labour-Iberian Federation of Anarchists, the anarchy-syndicalist trade union. POUM is the Workers' Party of Marxist Unification, the Left Opposition party (formerly aligned with Trotsky).

    Well, I guess there's "spreading" and "spreading". I don't think that we're going to see a replay of the 1917-21 period, but I think it would exert enough influence to cause serious trouble elsewhere. The French Popular Front came about on the back of a massive strike wave in France, one which the Popular Front actually had to reign in because it was getting out of hand, working class frustration still boiled under the surface in Italy, Germany and Portugal, and even in moderate old Britain the anti-fascist movement was becoming increasingly rowdy, so while revolution may not have been in the air, the potential for increased militancy and increased class confrontation was definitely there. Not reshaping the geopolitical landscape in the way that Red October did, not even bringing down governments, but complicating things more than the powers that be would have preferred.
     
  6. Josu

    Josu Chieftain

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    I absolutelly agree with you, anarchist would be unable to success in areas like Basque country or Galicia where the power of the church was quite big. Even in basque country where there was a strong PSE (Basque socialist party, later included in PSOE), most of affiliates where catholic enough to support anarchy. Furtheremore, more powerful htan PSE in basque country was PNV whose moto still is "Jaungoikoa eta lege zaharra" (God and basque charter). I think they would not allow the advance of anarchy in Basque country...
     
  7. Traitorfish

    Traitorfish The Tighnahulish Kid

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    I think you're overstating the importance of an ideological anarchism in the Catalonia revolution. It was a question of class rather than ideological conflict, of subaltern sections of society contesting the authority of the hegemonic sections. The role of anarchism was not to provide an impetus towards militancy or insurrection, but to provide a way of articulating the working class experience and of formulating a response to that experience. (Spanish anarcho-syndicalism, in fact, was already by that point a far cry from the Bakunian insurrectionism of its forebearers, having adapted itself to the realities of working class militancy rather than expecting militants to adapt themselves to it. The militants of the CNT-FIA generally bore more resemblance to those of the syndicalist IWW in the US or the Dutch-German council communists than to the archetypal bomb-throwing anarchist of the 19th century.) That's certainly not to say that ideological conditions are irrelevant- the authority of the Church in the Basque country is, as you say, no small thing, especially when it comes to the peasantry- but that they can't be understood in terms of formal political tendency.
     
  8. Azale

    Azale Chieftain

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    Yea, the Catalonians carried out easily the most mature experiment in actual anarchist governance imo. I just wonder why this way of expressing displeasure with the existing order did not spread in to other quarters. Even though it was extinguished fairly quickly (mostly by "fellow" leftists), similar elements in other countries must have known extensively of the Catalonian experiment.

    Seems to me like it would be just as much worth a chance as hitching their wagon to a nationalistic sociopath like Stalin, which many leftist parties did instead. Was it a fear of actual radical change that maybe they couldn't control and exploit?
     

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