1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

What's going to change in a Earth that's 8c hotter?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Imaus, Sep 29, 2019.

?

Will the Tropics and Subtropics eventually become deserts?

  1. Yes

    23.8%
  2. Maybe/Not to that extent

    23.8%
  3. Unknown

    52.4%
  4. No

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Imaus

    Imaus Prince

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2016
    Messages:
    540
    I call this 'Cooked Earth'. This the IPCC 8.5C scenario.

    There's a lot of uncertainty going around as to what will really change on the ground. I, for one, am very interested in this.

    Here are some examples of stuff I've come across.



    Note how Central Asia turns into something like the Sahara while Siberia turns into the Midwest.



    Expansion of desert conditions; I think on the same 2000-2100 timescale. Again the WHOLE of Central Asia turning red is a huge point; but there's also the rush to the border in the USA by the Rockies and the baking of Mesopotamia/Iraq.

    And at the most extreme end, with little to no sources I've found, this map from Parag Khanna. He lists off a few sites and maps which I'll posit below. But if the prediction that we'll see a world 4c warmer by 2060 does come to pass, it's still a bad outcome.

    Extreme map that I can't find any supporting data for:



    Though the creator Parag Khanna cites these:



    From New Scientist; and that only led me to one document here from the "Royal Society Publishing". That's quite a...difference. Parag is trying to sell a book I can't find nothing about, so maybe that's it.

    But yea, what do ya'll think? Rubel and Kottek's estimation has a lot of Siberia opening up, but arguably little change elsewhere. The map about desertification feels right, and that's been a big hurdle since the 00s and 90s: the Sahel disappearing, aquifers drying up in the South West, the Gobi. and the steppe. The weakening of Europe and the huge drive up along the Rockies? That's something we'll feel, for sure.

    Then comes Parag's map which I'm this close to just writing off as a fiction unless I get some data, and my bias is saying that if there is any data, it's being squished into a more recent timescale than what it presents.

    Speaking of data, let me add some IPCC numbers I read from the...2018? 2017? report.

    Okay, so the IPCC said: 100% certain that: less cold days, more warm days, the permafrost will decline by a third or so. The ocean will be more ocidic. No Northern Hemisphere Glacification before 3000AD. Sea level WILL rise beyond 2100; but for this century we're in the ballpark of 1-2m.

    It's very likely, (75+ chance of happening) that by the late 21st century (I'm taking late to be around 2066, 2075+) that the Ocean will deoxify by a few percent. There will be more warm spells, more heavy precipitation. The ocean conveyor belt will weaken but not collapse. More atmospheric CO2, methane, nitrous oxide.

    It's likely (60% chance or so) that the global temperature will rise by 1.5c to 4.5c. That means the 4c warming scenario is highly probable. Okay, sure. The subtropics will lose precipitation. Glaciers will decline. The Ozone hole will expand. More droughts.

    It's Semi-Likely (around 50? 40?% - flip a coin) that Tropical Cyclonic Activity will intensify. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet disappears, but only above 4.5C temp increase.

    It's Unlikely - around 33%, my note is '1 in 3' - that Antarctica and Greenland will lose all ice by the late 21st century. That's a bit high for something so drastic, with a sea level increase of...10 to 30? metres. That's... a lot.

    Very Unlikely - around 20%, still that's 1-in-5, too high for my tastes - that the Conveyor Belt system just...shutdowns completely.

    It's exceptionally unlikely, still around 10%, that we'll see a 6.0C increase by the late 21st Century.

    General stuff is that if we reach 1.6C by the 2050s, 9-31% of all current extant species will be extinct, most reefs gone, half of wooded Tundra lost.

    If 2.6c by 2080, loss of 25% of all large African mammals and most tropical rainforests.

    60% of widespread and common plant species, and 35%% of widespread and common animal species will see habitat range shrinkage, up to a half of what they have now, by 2080.

    20-30% of plants and animals will be subject o an increased risk of extinction if temps rise by 2.6c. If the temp rises by 4c, we're looking at the 40-70 ('flip a coin') range.

    75% of South American aquifers depleted by 2050. This I think is important to note because, well, that affects people. That's what starts political crises and refugee movements.

    20,000 more pollution related death per 'temp rise' (1c tiers?)

    There's an upside is that Temperate food production might increase and that's due to the climate zones shifting north. More Siberian, Canadian, North East, High European farming.

    37% of all permaforst will disappear in a 2.6c scenario by 2100.

    1m sea level rise will displace around 100,000,000.

    Now, there are other reports that have come out of late.

    What's in those reports? I don't know. I think one is from the UN and hasn't been fully published yet. What was thrown around is that it's all 'worse-case scenario' is basically the scenario we're getting or gunning for, and the number '8.5' is thrown around a lot which I think is basically 'we're going to warm up by 8.5c'. In what time frame I don't know. I don't think we 'only have 12 years' to solve it or '2 years or we're doomed', but extrapolating from it all, we should at least be prepared for the heavy end of Climate Change within this century or even the stuff for 2050. And since most of us will be alive then, that's something I think we should brace for.

    Again, what do ya think? Sorry for the number dump. Will Earth eventually under 8.5C turn into a desert world?
     
    Azem.Ocram likes this.
  2. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Messages:
    11,212
    I look forward to being a desert world. When that happens we can live in the temperate polar regions, eventually discover the ruins of the ancient starship that brought us to this world, and embark on an interstellar journey to discover and reclaim our true homeworld.
     
  3. Lemon Merchant

    Lemon Merchant Superconductor Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    7,653
    Gender:
    Female
    Location:
    Red Sector A
    We'll have murdered each other in a fiery nuclear war long before it gets to be 8.5C hotter than it is now. Nuclear winter will fix the global warming problem for good.
     
  4. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    4,326
    Location:
    Climbing Kero Fin
    Always the optimist.
    My personal plus point is that at least Las Vegas will be unliveable no matter how high you turn the AC.
     
  5. Imaus

    Imaus Prince

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2016
    Messages:
    540


    "The truth of our origins is only now being revealed. Descendants of the great derelicts of Kharak. We are all one. We are all...Kushan. My brother said salvation lay in the desert...it''s too early to say for sure if he was right. But one thing is certain. This is not the end. It's a new beginning. For us all."

    The potential for conflict is high. Conventional Conflict is certain - some already say a few wars ave started due to aggravated climate change. People aren't malleable about borders anymore, it's not like the Russians will just open the doors for all of MENA and South+East Asia to wrestle Siberia from them. Some immigration - yes. But we're looking at huge migrations here. Even if the Russian, Canadian, American, or Scandinavian nations collapse so hard they can't 'defend' at the border, doesn't mean they'll just roll over for everyone else...
     
  6. AdamCrock

    AdamCrock Polish Pudding

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2012
    Messages:
    4,442
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Infected zone - Rzeszów
    True ! Some really old maps (Turkish I think) mysteriously depict Antarctic as temperate with animals drawn on it ;)

    That would be mysterious "Piri Reis" map by Ottoman cartographer going by that name ;)



    On top of the map You can see the west coast of Africa (with an elephant drawn on it), on the bottom are the eastern shores of South America and to the right is Antarctica.
     
  7. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    4,326
    Location:
    Climbing Kero Fin
    Yes, climate apologists sometimes say temperature change and migration occurred before. This is true but it has never occurred when our population density was so high nor was the temperature change occurring within just decades. The scale of migrations plus the speed with which they will occur will make the current difficulties the US and EU are having coping with immigration seem meaningless.
     
    caketastydelish and Imaus like this.
  8. Bugfatty300

    Bugfatty300 Buddha Squirrel

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2003
    Messages:
    9,940
    Location:
    Mexico
    The land on the right is the southern cone of South America with a drastic error in longitude (which was basically guesswork back then)
     
    Birdjaguar likes this.
  9. Lemon Merchant

    Lemon Merchant Superconductor Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    7,653
    Gender:
    Female
    Location:
    Red Sector A
    Not optimism. Realism. I hold no illusions and my belief in the absolute stupidity of the human race is rock solid. :lol:
     
  10. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2000
    Messages:
    18,175
    Location:
    the golf course
  11. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Hanafubuki Retired Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2001
    Messages:
    37,358
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM
    I think that migrations will be an early problem: away from drought and away from ocean rise.
     
  12. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2002
    Messages:
    19,012
    Location:
    Sydney
    Did you bother to read the article you linked ? Iam guessing you didnt
    Melting glaciers caused the altanic convery to shutdown

     
  13. Imaus

    Imaus Prince

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2016
    Messages:
    540
    The earliest problem because MENA, South Asia, and the like are basically going to become living year-long ovens. While we can say 'Oh just make AC, live in underground arcologies, and wear cooling suits 24/sev', that's impossible to implement - we're looking at a billion to two billion people impacted easily. Immigration controls and sluices can only go so far. Unless Russia really does want to take them all in to settle Far Siberia....
     
    Birdjaguar likes this.
  14. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Hanafubuki Retired Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2001
    Messages:
    37,358
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM
    It would be smart for Russia to take in immigrants, but probably bad for Putin.
     
    caketastydelish likes this.
  15. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2000
    Messages:
    18,175
    Location:
    the golf course
    Where in that article did you find melting glaciers caused the temperature in Greenland to rise 10c in a decade? You're confusing the alleged cause of the Younger Dryas - cold fresh water entering the N Atlantic - with the end of the Younger Dryas when the temperature rose quickly and a lot.
     
  16. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2003
    Messages:
    7,930
    Location:
    Dunedin, New Zealand
    My place will be great.

    Auckland type weather no Aucklanders.
     
  17. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2002
    Messages:
    19,012
    Location:
    Sydney
    FFS Berzerker
    Iam going to just link a Youtube video that explains the Atlanic convyer

     
  18. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2000
    Messages:
    18,175
    Location:
    the golf course
    You're avoiding my question
     
  19. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2008
    Messages:
    25,318
    Not so easy to make predictions. Supposedly the Sahara used to not be a desert based on fossil records/etc, and if you increase global temperature sufficiently you alter wind flow and it gets a monsoon season like India gets, turning into a savannah. This of course influences C02 absorption too, but not enough to drag temperatures completely back down.

    Similarly, if you screw with the ice caps too much you can lose the heat pump that fuels the Gulf Stream and parts of Europe could easily wind up colder than now despite an increase in global temperature.

    The world is full of stuff like that so it's non-trivial to guess who precisely gets screwed and by how much. You probably don't want to be on/near coast in flat areas. And we can be reasonably certain that massive alteration to terrain will otherwise be costly regardless of the specifics of what exactly happens in each place.

    I don't think you're being creative enough. Nuclear winter would be death on an unprecedented scale for humans, but it wouldn't be a species wipe. We do have some near-future options that would risk that though.

    Also can't rule out the possibility that something other than GW pulls the trigger early of course.
     
  20. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    24,346
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    The pale blue dot.
    This is why I'm so deeply skeptical of claims that a warmer world means Siberia would be a productive, habitable place. That is just way too specific of a claim to make based on available data and projections.
    I think at the very least 'species wipe' is on the table with nuclear winter. Radiation won't confine itself to the areas that are directly nuked and we're already a pretty fragile and cancer-prone species. And I think the further we go forward in time, the more vulnerable we'd all be to dying for lack of civilization. I'm a smart guy, but I think I'd probably starve to death pretty quickly should society collapse as I doubt I could figure out foraging or farming fast enough to make it, even if the fallout from a nuked LA didn't lethally contaminate everything around me. As more and more people join modern society, that means there are less and less people capable of making it on their own absent the trappings of modern society. Falling numbers of nuclear weapons does make species wiping less likely overall, though. And I hope we continue that trend..
     
    Estebonrober likes this.

Share This Page