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What's happening in Syria right now??

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Bestbank Tiger, Feb 3, 2012.

  1. Bestbank Tiger

    Bestbank Tiger Chieftain

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    CNN started covering some major events, then cut away to talk about important international stories like Haley Barbour going nuts with pardons, followed by the latest tabloid murder trial :rolleyes:
     
  2. Silurian

    Silurian Warlord

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    There will be a UN vote tomorrow (1400 EST) asking Assad to step down.
     
  3. Joecoolyo

    Joecoolyo 99% Lightspeed

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    Do the Russian's still plan to block it?

    They kept going back and forth on whether they will or not.
     
  4. asbestos

    asbestos Chieftain

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  5. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Challenge accepted

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    Death, death, and more death.

    Assad still had a general media blackout on, so little information gets out. Actually, correction; little official information gets out, official as in reports by news agencies, large organisations or governments. Sometimes we only get information from the activists and rebels themselves, though 99% of the time these dismissed by Western media as "uncredible" or something like that.

    Assad still has supporters, and the Baath Party has a long experience of dealing with things like these, so it doesn't look like the regime will fall any time soon. Perhaps there will be some economic liberalisation or reform (Syria is a craphole economically speaking even by regional standards) and a few political concessions will be made by the government, as happened in many similar incidences, but the Baath Party will likely stay in power unless the rebels acquire some serious ammunition. Assad himself might have a less certain fate; hardliners might seek to remove him for not being tough enough, or, less likely, the more reformist faction might gain the upper hand and decide that he's a liability as a figurehead) but he'll likely survive in power too. Best case scenario: top-down reformist makeover a la Myanmar. Worst case scenarios: ultra-hardliners in Baath win and establish a total police state, or civil war or similar, which could easily led to a Salafist takeover.
     
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  6. Bestbank Tiger

    Bestbank Tiger Chieftain

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    Thanks!! No suprise that I had to look outside the US to get actual news.

    Assad is a joke. No qualification other than the fact that his daddy had the job. I'm glad we don't have to deal with that kind of crap here...oh wait.
     
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  7. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Challenge accepted

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    In one way, he's like Kim III in the DPRK; a young, convenient, legitimising face for the regime for the shadowy clique of generals who have all the real power but don't want to be seen publicly exercising it. That said, Hafez trained Assad Jr well in the half-decade before his death. Both Assad Sr and Assad Jr are known to be very able diplomats. They don't hide behind a constant veil of secrecy and hero worship like the Kims (their kind of cult of personality is more "folksy" than "god-like"). So Assad II is actually more somewhere between Kim III and perhaps Rajiv Gandhi.
     
  8. bombshoo

    bombshoo Never mind...

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    Can you give a play by on how this sort of scenario might work? I'm hardly an expert on Syrian politics, but from my understanding Assad is a Shia (part of the Alawi Sect, and not very religious- a bit of a contradiction in of itself), while the Salafists are very Sunni. So it would be a Sunni vs. Shia Civil War, for all intents and purposes?

    I can see it happening, but nonetheless, it would be quite odd to see the United States backing the Salafists in Syria since they would be the anti-Iranian faction, while at the same time going against them in Egypt, in favor of all people, the MB.
     
  9. Babbler

    Babbler Chieftain

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    Here an interesting explanation for why Assad will probably not fall:

     
  10. Ceoladir

    Ceoladir Come Fly With Me

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    It's being overrun by radical Islamists who seek to destroy America... is what Assad tells me.
     
  11. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Challenge accepted

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    Neither am I. :p

    Being Alawi is more of an ethnic differentiation than a mark of any overt religious zealotry. Baathist Syria has been the most secular of all the Arab states except for maybe Tunisia, as the Assads use religious tolerance as a carrot to get other minorites on side. Yes, the Alawis are essentially a subgroup of the Shia and the Salafis and Wahhabis a subgroup of the Sunnis. In Syria, something like 75% are Sunnis, and only 13% Shia, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Sunnis will all support a MB-led or Salafi-led armed uprising against Assad. Ten percent are Kurds, most of whom will either be ambivalent about an Arab-led Islamist government or oppose it, and in the event of a civil war breaking out may form their own faction against the Islamists or throw their lot with Assad.

    Then again, the Islamists might just decide to lie low or only operate covertly, as in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, until the government falls, and then reveal themselves and take control as the most well-organised group in the country, the popular restorer of order. This is a far more likely scenario than the Islamists actually leading the armed struggle. Wars tire their participants, and leading a war is doubly tiring.

    The United States is sort of backing the Salafists in Egypt in a kind of roundabout manner. The Junta, a beneficiary of decades of pro-US policy, suppresses the less organised liberal rebels and allows the Islamists to flourish relatively unhindered. The Muslim Brotherhood sees the Salafists as a more natural allies than the secular democrats. Their best friends are in Saudi Arabia, the most staunchly pro-US state in the region. I'd speculate on a USA-Militarist-Islamist secret alliance but then you'd think me a conspiracy nutjob.

    Assad is more adept at using the 9/11 Card than most US politicians.
     
  12. kramerfan86

    kramerfan86 Chieftain

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    Im sorry I tend to not trust polls in dictatorships, even when not done by the dictatorship. If I live in a country where a brutal dictatorship is killing people Im not going to say I support the president going. I dont care if its claimed to be "anonymous", information and names leak. When his opponents are dying I imagine at least some people are afraid to tell anyone they are against him.
     
  13. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Challenge accepted

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    I'd actually be surprised if it's 55%. Polls in dictatorships generally give 97% or 98% support.
     
  14. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    Assad needs to crush the uprising ASAP.
     
  15. muhtesem insan

    muhtesem insan Amateur Revolutionary

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    What in Syria is an Islamist uprising with limited support from people. They're not happy with Essed's regime but majority of population sees them lesser of evils. This rebellion is supported by USA via Turkey, leaders of the rebellion set up a HQ in Hatay and lead it from there. Essed's regime accepted Human Rights observers from Arab's leauge but when they wanted to check rebels' actions too rebels refused it. There had been numerous atrocities against christians and alawites by rebels in last months. So this is not an uprising of an oppressed people against a Tyrant, this is an coup attemp from western world against a government not willing to side with them.
     
  16. Mr. Dictator

    Mr. Dictator A Chain-Smoking Fox

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    Think you could direct them to some Russians for tips on that?
     
  17. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    I forgot that from a Muslim perspective, everything that transpires in any country anywhere in the world (especially in Muslim countries) is somehow organized, supported, initiated, planned, plotted, or perpetrated by the USA, Israel, or the West in general :crazyeye:

    If only it were true...

    They seem to have Russia on board already, so there's no need of that.
     
  18. muhtesem insan

    muhtesem insan Amateur Revolutionary

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    Well irony is I'm not muslim, and muslims do support the rebellion.
     
  19. Mr. Dictator

    Mr. Dictator A Chain-Smoking Fox

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    Ahh, thank the heavens your country won't be the only one saved by Russia, I suppose.
     
  20. Tee Kay

    Tee Kay Challenge accepted

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    It's funny that you're responding to muhtesem-san's comment with cheap shots about Muslims hating the West, since he's suggesting Islamists and the West are actually acting in concert.

    Edit: and the Shias, Christians, Druzes, secularists, militarists and possibly Kurds are allied in this one. Weird world, isn't?
     

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