Which car manufacturers will go under?

[Loppan Torkel]

Which ones do think will go bankrupt, be reconstructed, etc and seize existing as a car company like today?

Saab and Opel won't make it, I'm not sure about some others under GM, but I'm guessing that the prognosis for GM as a whole is pretty bad.
How are Chrysler and Ford doing and which companies under them will be the first to be reconstructed? I think the risk of seeing Volvo being cut lose, still is pretty small.
I know several companies are having deficits, but are the companies in Japan and Europe in such a bad shape?

Have your own nations gone in with economical support for your car companies? GM want it to happen for Saab, but as for now, our government won't budge, which I support, for now.
France on the other hand, does what seems most beneficial for them, as usual.

 

[bhsup]

They need to cut loose Pontiac and let Chevrolet take over that segment. Also, either liquidate GMC entirely or cease Chevrolet production of trucks and SUVs. It's completely redundant. They're too similar to justify keeping both lines. Saturn is almost certainly gone as well. GM, at least as far as the American brands go, needs to be just Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, and maybe GMC but I still think GMC should go bye-bye.

Chrysler-wise, I think those three will make it. Jeep is...well it's Jeep!

 

[kronic]

Saab and Opel won't make it

It would be sensible to let Opel fail as the German car manufacturing industry is oversized (like in France; but failure there is apparently not an option). Also, Opel is small and who would miss Opel cars anyway? Getting rid of Opel therefore would be an optimal way to downsize the car manfucturing industry.

But it's too early to say that "Opel won't make it": there's a huge nationalisation discussion going on. And it's not the federal government (which is so far against it) that plays the key role but the states. The Opel plants in Germany are located in four different states. One state has already said it would partake in a possible nationalisation. The PM of another state was in the US last week to discuss the future of Opel. And the other two states have provided loan guarantees. All this together means that nationalisation is possible. At least, it looks like they're trying to do everything to prevent Opel from becoming insolvent.

Opel alone however would continue to run deficits. If governments decide to nationalise European carmakers, then they should think of rescuing all GM Europe manufacturers as they are deeply integrated. That would be the only way to create a new car group that could have a chance to become profitable in the long run (at the expense of the many other European manufacturers). But again, the German and West European car industry is hugely oversized. Competition is strong. As for the German industry, my guess is that we'll see a concentration process in the next years that will result in the merger of Daimler and BMW. That would create two big car groups: Porsche-Volkswagen (with Audi, Skoda, Seat etc.) and Daimler-BMW (with Smart, Mini etc.). Such a scenario would certainly gain approval by any government as it would make sure that the car industry in Germany would remain in German hands (Porsche and BMW are owned by about 4 families). With the exception of Opel, all German car makers look at this point comparably healthy. Daimler and BMW however are probably too small...

 

[mangxema]

They need to cut loose Pontiac and let Chevrolet take over that segment. Also, either liquidate GMC entirely or cease Chevrolet production of trucks and SUVs. It's completely redundant. They're too similar to justify keeping both lines. Saturn is almost certainly gone as well. GM, at least as far as the American brands go, needs to be just Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, and maybe GMC but I still think GMC should go bye-bye.

Pontiac and Saturn are almost definitely dead. (I posted a story in another thread... I don't remember which..) I don't see why Buick is still around either. I can see Chevy for your 'standard' vehicles, Cadillac for the upscale models, GMC for business vehicles (trucks/vans). Saturn would have made since as a budget line, but apparently, they weren't selling too well. I don't see what Buick brings to the table though.

 

[bhsup]

Well, Buick has a good niche. Cadillac is for those over the top ostentatious types that want a showy classy car. Buick gives you luxury in a conservative styling for those that just want the niceties without the flashiness.

 

[Jan H]

what about Hummer, is it dead as well? good thing for the environment

about Opel: the Flemish government would be interested in participating in an independent Opel (or GM Europe) as well. Our PM is travelling to Detroit next week for a meeting with the management of GM

I think Ford is doing fine, also in Europe (I just bought a new Focus ), but I'm worried about what will happen with Jaguar and Volvo wwhen they will be sold. Who will want to buy them? The Chinese, like MG/Rover?

 

[Cutlass]

You guys aren't making the distinction between brands and manufacturers. The manufacturer most likely to go under is Chrysler. GM deserves to go under, but at the moment we can't afford to let it happen.

Brands that are likely to disappear are Hummer and Saturn. In the near term anyways. If Chrysler the manufacturer survives, it wouldn't surprise me if Chrysler the brand does not.

Suzuki or Izuzu might be in trouble, at least their car lines. GM or Ford might have to shed a European operation or 2, So Volvo and Saab may be in trouble.

 

[Luckymoose]

I only care about who gets Jeep and Dodge brands, if GM does I will completely lose hope in the American automotive industry.

 

[bhsup]

Jeep? It could probably spin off and survive on its own. Dodge? Ha.

 

[Alpine Trooper]

If even one North American manufacturer "went under":

Chrysler estimated 300,000 lost jobs (including at suppliers), 3,300 failed dealers, and perhaps 2-3 million jobs lost due to a resulting collapse in the industry, resulting in a $150 billion tax revenue loss over next three years.

 

[Luckymoose]

Jeep? It could probably spin off and survive on its own. Dodge? Ha.

My family owns two Jeeps and one Dodge. They have never had any issues and I believe them to be superior. We also own a 1966 F-100 V8 Custom Cab that has never once broken down and has over 230,000 miles on it. The only vehicles we ever had problems with were GM models.

 

[Zelig]

I'm worried about what will happen with Jaguar and Volvo wwhen they will be sold. Who will want to buy them? The Chinese, like MG/Rover?

Jaguar Land Rover group is already owned by Tata Motors of India.

 

[Volum]

SAAB seems to be struggling, i think we should buy it just to stick it to the Swedes!

 

[Annex]

Jeep? It could probably spin off and survive on its own. Dodge? Ha.

Dodge is actually one of the few American car brands I still have some faith in. I used to drive a 2000 Ram and never had any problems with it at all, it was a solid truck. My experience with Jeeps aren't as good, however.

 

[Irish Caesar]

Dodge? Ha.

Says the Ford guy.

Spoiler :

But seriously, Dodge has some of the best looking cars, hands down. It's a shame Daimler screwed them over, I think they've got a better brand than their balance record shows these days.

Of course, since I won't be getting a new car this year, my opinion counts for about as much as I paid to type this post.

 

[bhsup]

I didn't mean to impugn Dodge's quality with that remark. It's just that Dodge is bleeding out so bad, I don't know that anybody would want to take it or if it could survive going solo.

 

[Irish Caesar]

Which is a shame. If they could just drop something other than a Hemi into what they build, their styling is far better than anything else on the road, especially since Chevrolet discontinued the Monte Carlo.

Of course, a Challenger without a Hemi would be sacrilege, so...

 

[Luckymoose]

I do love the HEMI, but the HEMI loves gas.

I drove a Grand Cherokee SRT8, the one with the 6.1L HEMI and I loved that thing, but that was during $4 gas so we switched it up for a regular Grand Cherokee.

 

[Irish Caesar]

I have to admit to really liking their minivans, to be honest.

The new design isn't my favorite by any means... but consistently they've been good with the minivans. Fold the seats down and it's a party in the back!

 

[Jan H]

Jaguar Land Rover group is already owned by Tata Motors of India.

ouch. probably even worse.