China and India have No First Use policies (thank goodness). Pakistan is the only state in the region that has threatened use of nukes in response to conventional warfare.
So, by historic precedent, a Pakistan misadventure against India would likely start the first Nuclear War. This would likely be as another high-on-testosterone low-on-strategy mini-invasion of Indian Kashmir, like in Kargil in 1999. Probably another rogue general, pissed at having been passed over for promotion.
Per Indian doctrine, counterattacks will occur with armoured strike corps, in sectors bordering Rajasthan and Punjab. Pakistan will horsehocky a brick at this, and chuck a bunch of tactical nukes at the massive Indian armoured columns advancing on Lahore and Karachi.
India will likely not respond with nukes, but will launch conventional cruise missile strikes on Pakistani strategic nuclear facilities to pre-empt an eventual Pakistani strategic strike on its cities (easier to target as less mobile than tactical nukes), wiping out most of Pakistan's strategic nuclear arsenal.
All this while, the PRC would exert increasing pressure on India to de-escalate with Pakistan. They will take the opportunity to try and annex Eastern Ladakh and what they call "Southern Tibet", while India is dealing with Pakistan. Border skirmishes will escalate to undeclared war between the PRC and India.
Pakistan would launch its remaining nuclear weapons, taking out 3-4 smaller Northern/Western Indian cities unprotected by anti-ballistic missile systems. The Indian strategic nuclear retaliation would wipe out Pakistan's military facilities and leave Pakistani cities facing terrible nuclear fallout.
The PRC would likely start chucking heavier stuff at India at this point, short of nukes, as it has large investments in Pakistan, and they would rationalize a large border war by saying India had attacked Chinese interests abroad.
As China did that, they would receive pressure from the other QUAD powers in the Pacific. This would provide them the cassus belli to take Taiwan by force - dragging in the US, Japan and Korea, and the 5 Eyes countries.
WW3.
So, by historic precedent, a Pakistan misadventure against India would likely start the first Nuclear War. This would likely be as another high-on-testosterone low-on-strategy mini-invasion of Indian Kashmir, like in Kargil in 1999. Probably another rogue general, pissed at having been passed over for promotion.
Per Indian doctrine, counterattacks will occur with armoured strike corps, in sectors bordering Rajasthan and Punjab. Pakistan will horsehocky a brick at this, and chuck a bunch of tactical nukes at the massive Indian armoured columns advancing on Lahore and Karachi.
India will likely not respond with nukes, but will launch conventional cruise missile strikes on Pakistani strategic nuclear facilities to pre-empt an eventual Pakistani strategic strike on its cities (easier to target as less mobile than tactical nukes), wiping out most of Pakistan's strategic nuclear arsenal.
All this while, the PRC would exert increasing pressure on India to de-escalate with Pakistan. They will take the opportunity to try and annex Eastern Ladakh and what they call "Southern Tibet", while India is dealing with Pakistan. Border skirmishes will escalate to undeclared war between the PRC and India.
Pakistan would launch its remaining nuclear weapons, taking out 3-4 smaller Northern/Western Indian cities unprotected by anti-ballistic missile systems. The Indian strategic nuclear retaliation would wipe out Pakistan's military facilities and leave Pakistani cities facing terrible nuclear fallout.
The PRC would likely start chucking heavier stuff at India at this point, short of nukes, as it has large investments in Pakistan, and they would rationalize a large border war by saying India had attacked Chinese interests abroad.
As China did that, they would receive pressure from the other QUAD powers in the Pacific. This would provide them the cassus belli to take Taiwan by force - dragging in the US, Japan and Korea, and the 5 Eyes countries.
WW3.
