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Who Are You Picking to Win the Superbowl?

Discussion in 'Sports Talk' started by Sommerswerd, Jan 20, 2020.

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Who are you picking to win the Superbowl?

Poll closed Feb 1, 2020.
  1. Kansas City Chiefs

    60.0%
  2. San Francisco 49ers

    40.0%
  1. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

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    I think Jimmy G can be at least be reasonably effective. The anemic offense that the Broncos had in Super Bowl 50 certainly was. I trust Shanahan to be able to cook something up, especially with everything his solid, well above average offense has at his disposal.

    And I don't they will be "playing from behind" that much to begin with. To make matters worse (for the Chiefs), the 49ers defensive line has a MUCH better rotation to last four quarters than the Chiefs do. You can make the "but the Chiefs defense will barely even stay on the field" but I don't buy into that theory.
     
  2. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    The Chiefs defense is always on the field. They don't score four touchdowns a quarter by grinding clock with ball control.
     
  3. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Deity

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    Chiefs because they are "due" the best logic ever always.
     
  4. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

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    They cannot score like that against this 49ers defense, and their defense (Chiefs) is not strong or deep enough to last the entire game against this legit 49ers offense. Take away their running game? Fine. They still have a respectable, above league average set of wide receivers (this is even more true after acquiring Emannuel Sanders) and arguably the best tight end in the game with a decent offensive line to protect them and a decent signal-caller to make the throws, with an extremely good offensive-oriented head coach to call the shots.

    The Chiefs, AFAIK, don't have any particularly good players in their secondary other than Tyrann Mathew. With too many options to spread the ball around to, and with only one DB that could really be considered "shut down", 49ers just have too many options to torch them, especially if they stack the box with 8 making their passing defense even vulnerable. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a front 7 that is probably average at best, meaning Jimmy G will have a decent amount of time to throw the ball... but even then, Jimmy G, has on average, gotten rid of the ball much faster than league average and much faster than Mahomes.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2020
  5. IglooDude

    IglooDude Enforcing Rule 34 Retired Moderator Supporter

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    Ditto for Brady and the Pats?

    Anyway. KC is going to win. I'd explain why, but that might sound like lame hedging. So KC. Period.
     
  6. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

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    Aaron Rodgers (in Emperor Palpatine's voice) is much younger and more powerful than Brady and while his offense hasn't been unstoppable, it's far from being awful like what the Patriots have been this season. Being able to stop Aaron Rodgers still means something, even if he doesn't have much help around him.
     
  7. Serutan

    Serutan Eatibus Anythingibus

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    This one's a toughie.
    Do you believe that the Saints game is evidence that the Niners have a chance in a shootout?
    Do you believe that the Titans game is evidence the the Chiefs have learned how to stop the run?
    Still mulling it over...
     
  8. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

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    This 49ers offense has a lot of weapons to throw around to besides running the ball... and when they do make catches, they have been particularly good at making yards after contact. You can double team Kittle but that will leave someone else open, especially if you're stacking 8 in the box, to begin with, to stop the run.
     
  9. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    More like double for Brady and the Pats. That dude is done, and only missing the fork. Rodgers isn't good enough any more to elevate a bunch of zeroes into a contender, Brady is now bad enough that he needs some receivers that can elevate him.
     
  10. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

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    I don't think the Packers were THAT far from being contenders. "Got the second seed in your conference, and it made it all the way to the championship game of your conference in the playoffs, (the final 4 teams in a league of 32), doesn't sound like someone who is a long shot to win it.
     
  11. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    They caught an injury ravaged Seahawk team and got blown out by the 49ers, so "made it to the conference championship" isn't all that impressive upon examination. They have put together a good defense, and if they come up with more than one guy who can catch the ball they will be in the mix.
     
  12. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Deity

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    I get the confidence of taunting Brady, but can we just be quiet about it? The last thing I want to see is some stupid chip mount on his shoulder and he come back and win another one.
     
    Light Cleric and IglooDude like this.
  13. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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    Chiefs. I don't believe even the 49's can keep them from scoring enough points to win. We'll see who the turnovers favor since that's the most unpredictable.
     
  14. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    Garoppolo had a 69.1% completion percentage, threw for 3978 yards, 27 TDs and received a 102 QBR
    Mahomes had a 65.5% completion percentage, threw for 4031 yards, 26 TDs and received a 105.3 QBR

    The "better percentages cause they're a run-heavy team" argument doesn't hold up when their yardage and TD numbers are nearly identical. Their stats are comparable... Jimmy G took more sacks because he doesn't scramble like Mahomes. He also had more INTs, I'd argue for the same reason.

    Garoppolo can and will do what is needed to win the game for the 49ers throwing even if the Chiefs could shut down the run... which they can't. The 49ers are going to pass and run the ball effectively. Mahomes is going to be out there running for his life. By the end of the game, he is going to be doing the same thing Deshaun Watson was doing, the same thing Lamar Jackson was doing, and the same thing Cam Newton was doing... the same thing that young Quarterbacks with great legs often tend to do when they get behind late... start scrambling like a madman, trying to take the game over and do it all themselves... and that's when things will fall apart for the Chiefs. Plus Andy Reid will do what he always does... blow it with botched playcalling late in the game.

    Most importantly, I am a 49ers fan. :D

    49ers win.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
    Morty and caketastydelish like this.
  15. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

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    I prefer the Chiefs to win for Andy Reid finally. They're the better team too (after they started figuring out how to at least make some defensive adjustments to make it average rather than terrible), so I will pick them.

    Hopefully that doesn't doom them to hell. My track record of cursing power is pretty spotty, almost as if I didn't have it, so maybe they'll be okay.
     
  16. Light Cleric

    Light Cleric ElCee/LC/El Cid

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    Mahomes also missed 2⅔ games with injury, they're not really comparable when you consider that, and if you still want to compare them, the part where Jimmy G threw 17 picks and fumbled 10 times vs Mahomes' 5 + 5 is pretty significant.

    Also, QBR is not the same as quarterback rating. Quarterback rating is a fundamentally broken stat that has an almost arbitrary formula and puts Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins and Jeff Garcia over Marino and Favre. PFF and Footballoutsiders's QBR both grade Jimmy G outside the top 10 (so does ESPN's but it's also a garbage stat)

    I think Garropolo is fine but he's not in the same stratosphere of player as Mahomes because very very few QBs are.
     
  17. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

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    While what you said is true, one thing (that I can't find a statistic on) is how Mahomes performs specifically while under pressure.

    Jimmy G gets rid of the ball much quicker on average than Mahomes, and the Chiefs don't have nearly as good of a pass rush, to begin with. Mahomes holds on to the ball longer, but that could be problematic when you are up against what is probably the best front 7 in the league. We all know Mahomes excels when given time to extend plays and perform miracles, a QB like that will punish just about every time you give him an ample of time to throw. But will he be able to, to begin with?

    The Broncos offense was unstoppable leading up to Super Bowl 48 and then the Seahawks absolutely humiliated them.

    The Patriots also had two fantastic teams the two times the New York Giants beat them, pretty much with a solid rotation of pass rushers. Unbelievably good offenses have lost to great defenses in a super bowl far more times than the other way around.

    edit: forgot to add this (unrelated to what you just said but what others have said earlier)

    "The Chiefs had no problem stopping Derrick Henry"

    While this is true, and there's probably not a single running back on the 49ers roster as good as Derrick Henry, here are the differences:

    First, the 49ers have a deeper set of running backs than almost any other team in the league, more than both the Titans and Chiefs. I say that even with Tevin Coleman out, although he has a pretty good chance of coming back.

    Second, the Titans had a traditional, one dimensional, ground and pound kind of run, whereas the 49ers are far more creative in their schemes, making it far harder to defend against. The Vikings and Packers don't have bad defenses by any means (especially the Vikings) but the 49ers had no problem making short work of it.

    Third, while the set of wide receivers the Titans have is decent, I think what the 49ers are fielding is still better.

    Perhaps the wide receivers are equal, but the 49ers have possibly the best tight end in the game. They also have a coach, in my opinion, that is far more creative in breaking down defenses, and especially when given extra time to prepare.

    Then on the other side of the ball, the Titans defense has been solid and respectable, but nothing like what the 49ers have.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
  18. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

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    LOLs... Good thing I didn't cite their "Quarterback Rating" then. Notice I listed their "QBR."

    However, I think you are actually confusing "Passer Rating" with "Quarterback Rating". I'm pretty sure that QBR is actually an abbreviation of Quarter Back Rating, and a relatively newly created statistic, while "Passer Rating" is the older, controversial statistic that's been around for a while. So if you're trying to say that "Passer rating" is broken and arbitrary and not the same as QBR, then that makes sense. If, you're actually saying that QBR and Quarterback Rating are different then you're incorrect.

    Saying that Mahomes was hurt is an excuse, because one can just as easily say that Garoppolo had more fumbles and INTs because he played more games. Who's to say that if Mahomes had played hurt those 2 games that he wouldn't have had two abysmal 5 turnover games? Also, durability is part of how "good" a player is, particularly in football. I mean if he tore his Achilles or something that was a season ending injury then I can see that argument. But Mahomes could have played through that injury they just chose to sit him. That's been confirmed. He was out 2 games and then had a "miracle recovery". That means he was able to play the whole time. Guys elect to play hurt all the time. Do they not deserve credit for their stats because they chose to play hurt? I'm not giving Mahomes credit for what he could have theoretically done if he elected to play hurt. His stats are what they are... like I said, missing 2 games doesn't necessarily mean more TDs... it could also mean more fumbles, more sacks and more INTs.

    I'm not saying they're the same, or that Garappolo is better. I think Mahomes is better. I'm saying that their stats are comparable this season and it shows that Garappolo can and will handle himself well enough for the 49ers to beat the Chiefs.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
  19. Light Cleric

    Light Cleric ElCee/LC/El Cid

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    QBR only goes up to 100. You literally cannot have a 102 or 105.3 QBR. These are their passer ratings, which has colloquially been called quarterback rating, lowercase, long before ESPN created their QBR in 2011 (my personal unfounded conspiracy theory is they constructed it to make Tebow look better but that's another story)..

    You somehow managed to lecture me for something you actually did yourself, that's pretty impressive.
     
  20. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

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    One thing I'll say is the only unique challenge the 49ers face is that Mahomes is a dual-threat QB.

    In almost all the games 49ers played this regular season where they actually managed to lose (or came close to losing) it was when the opposing team had a legit dual-threat QB.

    Ravens, Seahawks twice, and the Cardinals came very close one time. Obviously, I think the 49ers will still win (or I would be lame) but that's my only genuine concern.
     

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