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Who Are You Picking to Win the Superbowl?

Discussion in 'Sports Talk' started by Sommerswerd, Jan 20, 2020.

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Who are you picking to win the Superbowl?

Poll closed Feb 1, 2020.
  1. Kansas City Chiefs

    60.0%
  2. San Francisco 49ers

    40.0%
  1. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    My mistake. The site I got the stat from actually listed it as "QBR", but I am definitely the one confusing the stat as I didn't even know it only went up to 100. I will however note that Garoppolo's actual QBR is higher than both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. So if we're putting any stake on QBR it would seem that the 49ers are in good hands.

    But ultimately all of that is minor and doesent address or refute change the rest of what I've said, which is that their stats are comparable and Garoppolo has what takes for the 49ers to win the game... and they will.
     
  2. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Deity

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    Yeah, both of these teams have high scoring offenses, but one of them has a vastly superior defense. While Garropolo is not as good as Mahomes, he has two distinct advantages.

    1) gets rid of the very quickly (as an apprentice of Tom Brady perhaps that isn't a huge surprise)

    2) performs well under pressure.

    And what about "Jimmy G is a mediocre at best QB who is just a product of the talent and system he has to work with."

    Look at the 49ers win/loss record as long as they've had Jimmy G, and compare to when he played compared to when he didn't. They gave him the contract they did for a reason.

    edit: something else: I dug around PFF and finally found QB ratings while under pressure rather than throwing from a clean pocket:

    Mahomes and Garropolo are both tied at 21. The difference, though, is one of these QBs will probably have a lot longer to throw the ball before the pressure comes.

    edit 2: the 49ers have scored on offense (slightly) more than the Chiefs this season. While I won't go as far to say the 49ers offense is better than the Chiefs just because of that, I'm not buying "the Chiefs offense is MUCH better, no comparison".

    edit 3: people are no doubt naming Mahomes “the comeback kid” considering in their back to back playoff games he lead them from when they are coming behind. The problem is the 49ers have the best passing defense in the league. Coming from behind against that is much harder to accomplish.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
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  3. Serutan

    Serutan Eatibus Anythingibus

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    [nitpick] FO's counting state is DYAR, and their rating stat is DVOA.. ESPN uses QBR. [/nitpick]
     
  4. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    Ironically, Joe Montana is the original "Comeback Kid"... speaking of which... The man himself has issued a Superbowl guarantee in favor of our San Francisco 49ers, so I'd say it's an open and shut case at this point :)
     
  5. Light Cleric

    Light Cleric ElCee/LC/El Cid

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    yeah you're right, I stumbled over my words because the FO page lists ESPN's QBR on the same table like 3 columns from DVOA
     
  6. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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    Using the get's rid of the ball on average is slightly misleading.
    Mahomes scrambles more so I would expect his average to be higher. Sitting in the pocked and just getting sacked or dumping it out of bounds quickly isn't necessarily better.
     
  7. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Deity

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    While is this true, the argument I’m making is being able to scramble in the first place is a lot harder when you’re up against the best front 7 in the league. You can get way with that with the average pass rush in the league perhaps even above average but not cream of the crop elite. He won’t get to play the kind of game he’s used to.
     
  8. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    Mahomes is definitely going to be scrambling his ass off all game, he has proven an ability to make good things happen while scrambling and when you occasionally throw in a strategic scramble here and there it can be game breaking. However, the more often you scramble in a game, the more likely it starts to become that you're going to have a disaster... sack for huge loss, fumble, strip, interception, injury, etc. Eventually your luck runs out when you are scrambling all the time.
     
  9. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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    Well the over/under for the game is currently at 54 so they're expecting someone to score 30. Which team is more likely to do that?
     
  10. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Deity

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    If Super Bowl 48 is an indication, the 49ers are the kind of team more likely to do that.
     
  11. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    But... 54 / 2 = 27. :confused:
     
  12. Bamspeedy

    Bamspeedy We'll dig up the road!

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    But it can't end 27-27. I had noticed it's possible for a 28-26 or 29-25 game, but most likely if 54 point are scored, someone scored 30+.
     
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  13. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    LOL...Montana guaranteed that his old team would win...what was that last team that he played for again?
     
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  14. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Deity

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    That in and of itself was an intentional joke on his part, pointing out that he has played for both teams. He has openly admitted (so far) that he hasn't decided who to pull for.
     
  15. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    That was the joke ;)
     
  16. Serutan

    Serutan Eatibus Anythingibus

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    Random thought - SB 25 featured what was supposed to be an unstoppable offense. I trust the OFs here remember "wide right".
     
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  17. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Deity

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    One thing I want point out is a lot of people predicting the Chiefs to win are saying “this will probably come down to the heroics of whoever has the best QB in the 4th quarter to lead a comeback and perform miracles so obviously the Chiefs will win because is capable of that far more than Garropolo.”

    While this is true to a certain extent, people were saying the same thing about the Patriots vs Eagles super bowl. It will come down to a dirty mudslnging contest and whoever has the best QB will win, which obviously Brady.

    I think Garropolo is at least good as Nick Foles, (that’s an understatement), this 49ers team is even more solid than what the Eagles had then. There’s more to winning a Super Bowl than having the better QB. The quality difference between Brady and Foles isn’t any bigger than between Mahomes and Jimmy G.
     
  18. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

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    KCs defense isn't as talented as SF's, but after the first few weeks they've legitimately shown the ability to schematically adjust and perform reasonably. You say that SF will get the KC offense off its game, but KC has actually done this to numerous other teams itself, including playoff-caliper/actual playoff teams. A good example was the regular season Vikings-Chiefs where they won w/o Mahomes playing. The defensive adjustments made against the Vikings before/during the game were solid.

    The better offense is going up against the better defense, but the opposite unit for each team isn't that bad. It's schematically harder to shut down KC offense, unless you really can manage sub-3 second pressure consistently enough while rushing 4. KC OL isn't exactly awful, so that's not a safe assumption.

    PHI vs NE was ridiculously strong offensive performances/weak defensive, to the point of setting records. That could happen in this game too, but it's not statistically likely and I have doubts it will be so free for either offense this time around.

    I wouldn't exactly be *shocked* if SF won, they're a good team, and in NFL the better team doesn't always win. But they win more often than they don't, and in this SB KC is the better/more likely team to win. If I'm committing to a pick, that's the best guess.
     
  19. KMRblue1027

    KMRblue1027 The Crown!

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    These 49er are not as good as the '17 Eagles were. They're a great team no doubt but that team made Foles look like a god twice. That's one of the most talented and well coached rosters since reilinement. They have an actual starting caliber QB unlike the Birds but they also drew a tougher opponent in KC then the '17 Pats were.

    Overall KC should be favored simply due to the fact that containing that offense is basically impossible but it'll be a good game.
     
  20. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

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    If you can actually 1v1 all their passing options you can, but that's a big ask. Sherman is still pretty good, but he's not in his prime and I'm not sure the rest of that secondary matches up enough to do that kind of man coverage. Chiefs got stymied that way a bit against the Colts but since adjusted. We'll see, 49er pass rush IS good and if it starts winning fast enough it might be enough to carry like the Broncos pass rush carried them past the Pats in Manning's last year. I'm not favoring this to happen, but it's possible and I expect if my pick is wrong that will be why.
     

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