1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

Who can save us from TRUMP in 2020

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by RomaGypsy, Nov 18, 2016.

?

Democratic Candidates 2020

  1. Tulsi Gabbard

    11.1%
  2. Al Franken

    5.6%
  3. Elizabeth Warren

    33.3%
  4. Cory Booker

    22.2%
  5. Sherrod Brown

    5.6%
  6. Jon Tester

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Bernie Sanders

    11.1%
  8. Martin O Mally

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. Kamala Harris

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. Bill de Blasio

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. Michelle Obama

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  12. Tammy Duckworth

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. Julian Castro

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  14. Joe Biden

    11.1%
  1. Manfred Belheim

    Manfred Belheim Oh you can edit this

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2009
    Messages:
    7,184
    I thought it was meant to be the end of civilisation as we know it? Now apparently it's just going to be business as usual in 2020?
     
  2. Traitorfish

    Traitorfish The Tighnahulish Kid

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2005
    Messages:
    31,779
    Location:
    Scotland
    I'm not sure. It's an interesting question, so I looked at the maths again, if you'll forgive me awkward attempts at tabling:

    STATE R12 R16 D12 D16
    MN - 1.32 - 1.32 | 1.55 - 1.37
    WI - 1.41 - 1.41 | 1.62 - 1.38
    IL - 2.14 - 2.12 | 3.02 - 2.98
    IN - 1.42 - 1.54 | 1.15 - 1.02
    MI - 2.12 - 2.28 | 2.56 - 2.26
    OH - 2.26 - 2.78 | 2.83 - 2.32
    WV - 0.42 - 0.49 | 0.24 - 0.19
    PA - 2.68 - 2.90 | 2.99 - 2.84
    Total 13.77 - 14.84 | 15.96 - 14.36

    R Gain 12-16: 1.07
    D Loss 12-16: 1.6

    So there's a few thing that stands out.

    First, that the Democrats lost more than the Republicans gained, by a margin of about half a million, which as we noted previously represents Trumps entire lead across the region. Even if every vote Trump won over Romney was a former Democrat, his overall lead represents the former Democrats who didn't to vote at all, so Trump's appeal was evidently less than universal.

    Second, that Democrat vote-loss doesn't equate directly to Republican vote-gain: Clinton lost 120,000 votes in Minnesota from Obama but if Trump gained any over Romney it was lost in my rounding, so the Democrats bled votes and won anyway. In Wisconsin, Trump again maintained Romney's level of support, but won because 300,000 less turned out for Clinton than Obama. Everyone lost votes in Illinois but Clinton still won, and Trump buttressed a foregone conclusion in West Virginia by taking the lion's share of a higher turnout. Only in half of the states listed- Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania- do we see a Trump victory resulting from a simultaneous drop in Democrat support and rise in Republican support, so whatever shift occurred was not universal. Further, the latter three states, which unlike Indiana went for Obama in 2012, are the most heavily urbanised states in the Rust Belt states after from Illinois, so this shift isn't necessarily associated with rural voters.

    Breaking it down a bit more, the gain:loss ratio in these three states wasn't even. Clinton lost about twice as many voters as Trump gained in Michigan, that difference there being larger than Trump's margin of victory. In Ohio Trump gains a few more votes than Clinton loses, and in Pennsylvania Trump seems to gain about four for every three Clinton loses, so in those two states we see numbers that could support a Democratic mutiny, but Trump also appears to be drawing on new voters, and it's not clear how far he's actually winning former Democrats and the extent to which he's former non-voters, who are simply replacing disenchanted former Democrats in the overall turnout figures. What's more, even ignoring that possibility, this only represents only one quarter of the states I originally listed, hardly a basis for sweeping generalisations, and the more second and third most urbanised of those states, so certainly not a basis for generalisation about angry hunters.

    So, again, I don't know what exactly happened in the Rust Belt. But the numbers do not, on the face of it, support both a revolt of blue collar workers and a revolt of the countryside, even if that theory made a great deal of sense in the first place.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2016
    Hygro likes this.
  3. CavLancer

    CavLancer This aint fertilizer

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2003
    Messages:
    4,298
    Location:
    Oregon or Philippines
    I was trying to figure out motives by using Joe Sixpack, an individual, because individuals elected Trump. So...as no other option is proposed, and I know rural areas overcame cities, that was covered election night, I think I'll stick to my theory until I or someone else can explain why democrats voted for Trump. Interesting numbers Traitorfish, what do they suggest to you? If hunters and disenfranchised workers didn't elect Trump, who did?
     
  4. Traitorfish

    Traitorfish The Tighnahulish Kid

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2005
    Messages:
    31,779
    Location:
    Scotland
    They suggest to me that Clinton lost votes as much as Trump won them. In most states, Obama voters became non-voters regardless of who won: Clinton loses votes in ever states, regardless of the actual outcome, and by a higher margin than Trump gained them in five of the eight states, so it would be very strange if Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia bucked that trend by seeing every former Democrat go directly over to Trump. It would be almost as strange if there three states were the only states in which Trump managed to bring out new voters, so we can assume that Trump also won previous non-voters in the other five, and that Clinton correspondingly lost voters who therefore aren't evident in a decline in turnout for the two major parties. So, I think looking at the numbers for defections across the aisle masks a less visible set of movements between the ranks of voters and non-voters, and to shed some more light on that, we'd have to start digging into polling data, which is beyond my very basic grasp of statistical analysis, and Google unfortunately isn't able to turn up somebody who's done the legwork.

    It's enough to say, though, that elections like this don't boil to a single set of people behaving in a single way. You said yourself, voters are ultimately cast, or not cast, by individuals, an individuals resist reduction to categories like "hunter" or "worker".
     
  5. CavLancer

    CavLancer This aint fertilizer

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2003
    Messages:
    4,298
    Location:
    Oregon or Philippines
    Thanks for the answer Traitorfish. As it is I can actually put a name to Joe Sixpack, though I won't as his privacy means something more important than making a point. He lives in Pensy and is a hunter and has loads of hunter friends. While he is retired lots of his friends are jobless and looking for work, or scared their plant will close. He says they all support Trump. So I think one's wallet or pocketbook might overcome the huge revulsion factor of voting for Trump or how one voted for last go round. These folks are scared. They have to feed their families, and are looikng for hope. Trump gave them that with his focus on jobs. Hillary did not. So, they voted Trump. Furthermore showing up in the state with rich, weird celebs just wasn't the right tone for their sufferings. So, some dems didn't vote and some folks that didn't vote before did so this time. I don't see how that makes Joe irrelevant. It seems to work right in to the notion. People who formerly voted Obama were turned off Hillary but couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump. Well okay. People whose job or ability to hunt were threatened but who never voted, voted for Trump, well okay. I can see Joe doing all those things, no problem. He voted Trump in when Hillary was supposed to destroy Trump in Pensy. That's impressive. Before the repug party starts patting themselves on the back they better understand the Joe is in bad shape and results oriented.
     
  6. danjuno

    danjuno Emperor

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2010
    Messages:
    1,935
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Meme City
    That's a mischaracterization. She's pretty liberal outside of the issues you brought up: Healthcare, the Environment, Banking, Abortion etc.
     
  7. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    15,962
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    That's all part of the sport of it Manfred ol' boy! Best case scenario, Trump abandons his campaign promises, gives lip-service to standard-Republican fare, uses the office to loot the treasury, enriching all his businesses, and I get a massive tax-cut to take my family to Disney World.

    Worst case scenario WW3, concentration camps, Civil War, and/or another global financial crisis... I move my family to the shattered irradiated remnants of Disney World, and take up residence in the Peter Pan Ride.

    In other words... Either way, I'm going to Disney World ;) So, yeah... business as usual pretty much.

     
  8. CavLancer

    CavLancer This aint fertilizer

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2003
    Messages:
    4,298
    Location:
    Oregon or Philippines
    We're awl gunna die
     
    daft likes this.
  9. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2002
    Messages:
    26,992
    Location:
    St. Petersburg, Florida
    How about Ellen DeGeneres? She's kinda the opposite of Trump in a lot of ways.
     
    daft likes this.
  10. daft

    daft The fargone

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2013
    Messages:
    1,398
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    New World
    Funny, but if he ever did become president, Earth is dead, he's a (reverse) racist-big mouth-xenophobe, better choose Eddie Murphy, your economy would be in shambles, but at least the politics would be funny...
     
  11. Commodore

    Commodore Technology of Peace

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Messages:
    10,660
    Location:
    The Tiberium Future
    You mean you aren't going to join my post-apocalyptic band of nihilistic psychos? You wound me, horseman.
     
  12. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2002
    Messages:
    22,405
    Location:
    Nicaragua
    I'll be singing it's a small world from the indiana jones ride.
     
  13. CavLancer

    CavLancer This aint fertilizer

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2003
    Messages:
    4,298
    Location:
    Oregon or Philippines
    The first time I saw 'Its a Small World' was at the 1964 World's Fair in NYC. That takes precedence.
     
  14. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2002
    Messages:
    13,357
    Location:
    next to George Bush's parents
    This is what I said for a year and a half leading to the election. I don't think Trump is as weak a candidate as many say, but I do think that Obama or Bill Clinton would have crushed him. The interesting comparisons would be to Bush, Kerry, Gore, etc. Trump has a bit of the magic that made Bill Clinton and Obama stand out. Clinton proved a capable administrator. Obama did not. We will see what holds for Trump.

    J
     

Share This Page