Who should I invade?

[Bamspeedy]

Ok, here's the situation: Huge map/pangea/16 civs. I'm on a Gigantic continent (probably takes up 60%+ of the total land area of the map) with what was 8 civs (Germany's gone), I'm playing Russia. I got SEVERAL settlers from goody huts so I have a very large territory (it helps when none of your neighbors are expansionists ). The continent is shaped like the letter 'C'. I am in the middle of the top part of it. I have China to the Northeast, Japan to the Northwest, and India straight west. My 29 cities are almost completely developed, so now it's time to take over some other civs. I will soon have the cossack available, problem is: NO HORSES! . No horses in the Middle Ages, sucks!

All the horses are very deep in my neighbors territory. And all have their Unique units (Rider, Samarai, War Elephant). I am keeping all the civs busy by having them go to war in the very south part of the continent, to slow down their research rate, and to send half their army all the way to the other side of the continent, so it would be a good time to strike them, after cancelling the alliances. And I don't want to wait for me to get all the way to tanks, I want more territory, NOW!

Here's the pro's and con's of each civ:

China - share a massive border, but if I took their land I would seal off that part of the continent and would only have one way to work towards to eliminate all the others. Won't get much help from alliances because they would take so long to get there. They have spices, which I don't, but only one horse. So I would buy horses from Japan or India to build up my army. Those speedy Riders will be tough.

Japan - Would get help from India, and not too long before China would help, only border a few cities, so I could start on one end and work my way over. They almost have a fur monopoly, but I already have 1 fur. The Samarai will be tough to beat.

India - weakest of the 3, but it's still mostly jungle. They also have spices, and since I only border 1 city, I probably won't claim many cities before Japan or the Aztecs gobble them up. It would also spread my empire out in a weird shape (right now I'm shaped like a circle, this would look like a circle with a long narrow stick sticking out of it). Of the 3 civs, this one has the weakest UU.

Scores: Me 1200+, China 631, Japan 513, India 501. Considering the layout AND the Unique units, who should I attack?

 

[Minuteman]

Isn't there some way you could trade for horses and then, for the time being, build as many horse units as possible with an eye on waging war with one of those civs after the trade agreement expires?

If you want war now, but don't feel like waiting for tanks to attack with mobile units, that might be your only choice.

 

[Bamspeedy]

Isn't there some way you could trade for horses and then, for the time being, build as many horse units as possible with an eye on waging war with one of those civs after the trade agreement expires?

Yeah, I could do that. I only have a defensive army now. I've been spending all this time building my infrastructure so that these cities will be powerhouses when I need them. I never built any offensive units, so I didn't realize I didn't have horses until now. I could start building some knights then upgrade when I finally get Military Tradition (I have Leonardo's workshop, and Sun-Tzu's). That is my only option since there are no good offensive units in the middle ages if you don't have horses.

Edit: I forgot to mention, I am about 2 techs ahead of the AI, so I could trade off 1 tech for the horses, but I am worried the AI will start catching up if I start trading off too many techs (Regent Level), but I guess I have no other option.

 

[Grey Knight]

Taking over China would be my strategic goal, but to do so I would first start a diversionary war with Japan and get China involved. Once China gets into the fray with Japan, declare peace with Japan and let China extend itself. Use the peacetime to build your forces, and when you feel comfortable rip open China's now softened underbelly!

Hard to do without any offensive units though, since the easiest way to do this (and set Japan and China forever at each others throats) is to take the most convenient Japanese city, then gift it to the Chinese.

Cheers,
Shawn

 

[SirPleb]

I generally want my next takeout target to be one of the two strongest rivals. (Keep whittling away at the strong ones before they can get a tech lead.) Best of all sometimes is to get the 2 strongest fighting each other while you take out number 3.

So I'm with Grey Knight on this one. To be a bit more specific (and might be all wet without knowing all the details of the situation):

I'd want to take China before long. But hitting them directly sounds too expensive. A tempting possibility would be:
1) Get horses from India. This way you'll be trading something to your weakest rival instead of strengthening the stronger ones.
2) Build Horsemen now and avoid learning Chivalry too soon. Since you have Leonardo's, if you also have good cash on hand, you can build a pile of horsemen then upgrade later. The upgrade is easy because you have Sun Tzu's. This is one of the more expensive upgrades but with Leonardo's maybe you can work up enough cash.
(Edit: Oops, wasn't thinking right, Knight->Cossack, not Horseman->Cossack. That's a fairly cheap upgrade I think.)
3) Get an MPP with China. (Edit: and a ROP probably of course.) In their position it sounds like you're not likely to get called on to support them. Then go to war with India. Make sure India attacks some "bait" in your territory before you push them back, so that the MPP causes China to join.
4) Beat up India for a while and extend your territory a bit that way before China arrives. Consider ahead of time how many moves you want this part to take. If it is say 15, then take the MPP 5 turns before you plan to start the war.
5) Cancel the MPP at the end of its 20 turn life. Make peace with India when possible, keep taking territory until then.
6) With a bit of luck, when you make peace with India, China is still at war with them, and is also way over-extended. Now go to war with China which was your primary objective all along. Keep hitting them as long as you're winning and see how far it can go.

Might not work of course!