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Who Will Be Mitt Romney's Running Mate? II -- The Home Stretch

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Dreadnought, Jul 18, 2012.

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Who do you EXPECT Romney to select as his VP?

Poll closed Sep 1, 2012.
  1. Rob Portman

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Tim Pawlenty

    7 vote(s)
    21.2%
  3. Bobby Jindal

    4 vote(s)
    12.1%
  4. Marco Rubio

    7 vote(s)
    21.2%
  5. Paul Ryan

    3 vote(s)
    9.1%
  6. Condoleezza Rice

    6 vote(s)
    18.2%
  7. Other

    6 vote(s)
    18.2%
  1. Dreadnought

    Dreadnought Deity

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    Howdy folks,

    We've come to the near end of the VP search for Mitt Romney. Most pundits have narrowed Romney's shortlist to a select few individuals: some include as many as six or more, while others include as few as three.

    Now, for purposes of this thread, we'll have our VP list longer than most other pundits' short lists. In an approximate order of possibility, our list can include:

    • Rob Portman
    • Tim Pawlenty
    • Bobby Jindal
    • Marco Rubio
    • Paul Ryan
    • Condoleezza Rice

    Let's be honest here: anyone not on this list would be a (relatively) surprising pick for VP. There's a couple dark horses (Thune, McDonnell, Ayotte) but it would be relatively unexpected for Romney to pass on the above candidates.

    By now, I would hope that you'd know at least a few details about these candidates.

    All the same: who do you expect Romney to pick as his VP? (As opposed to: who you want Romney to select as his VP).

    The first thread can be found here.
     
  2. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    I think he's got a problem. I don't know Portman, so Googling him the first thing that comes up is his saying he's not interested. Which I believe Rubio has said as well. Which leads me to thinking that Romney is going to have the same problems with a selection that the Republicans had in selecting Romney, which is that the most appealing candidates are sitting this one out. Pawlenty is too boring. Ryan too controversial. Rice is possibly a smart choice, but does nothing to help the base get out and vote. This is a problem for Romney is that he still lacks real credibility with the social conservatives, and so cannot likely get away with a pick who also lacks credibility with the social conservatives. But at the same time he needs to appeal to the center. That's an awfully fine line to try and walk.
     
  3. Save_Ferris

    Save_Ferris Admiring Myself

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    As Cutlass said, a lot of conservatives don't like him due to his former stances, but he has to attract moderates at the same time.

    I'm guessing he'll choose a wild card, someone who's exactly opposite of him.
     
  4. NickyJ

    NickyJ Retired Narrator

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    I've said it before, I'll say it again: Rubio is the best choice.
    I've said it before, I'll say it again: I expect Ryan to be Treasury Secretary. Otherwise, he stays in the House to work in the Budget Committee.
    I've said it before, I'll say it again: Rice would be a disaster.
    I've said it before, I'll say it again: Pawlenty is a safe pick. He adds little, but on the flip side, he takes away little.

    That said, I'm still not really sure who Romney will pick. But it will definitely not be Ryan. It simply isn't going to happen.
     
  5. AlpsStranger

    AlpsStranger Jump jump on the tiger!

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    I'm betting on Pawlenty.

    If I had a little more spare money for Intrade I would literally be betting on Pawlenty.

    So, how long will it be before MisterCooper some person comes in the thread explaining how Romney is going to pick reanimated Reagan, Rick "Strong" Perry, or that Alan West nutter.
     
  6. CELTICEMPIRE

    CELTICEMPIRE Zulu Conqueror

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    He will probably choose Rubio, but I'd like to see Pawlenty, Ryan, and Jindal in his cabinet as well.
     
  7. AlpsStranger

    AlpsStranger Jump jump on the tiger!

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  8. NickyJ

    NickyJ Retired Narrator

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    If someone put a gun to my head and told me to guess who it would be, then I'd probably lean towards Pawlenty. While I think that Rubio would be an excellent pick, I see Romney as playing it safe. And like I said, Pawlenty is the safe pick.

    It wouldn't kill me to see Pawlenty get picked, but I would much, much rather have Rubio.
     
  9. AlpsStranger

    AlpsStranger Jump jump on the tiger!

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    It will kill Glenn Beck apparently.


    Link to video.
     
  10. JollyRoger

    JollyRoger Slippin' Jimmy Supporter

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    My guess is Rubio.
     
  11. WindFish

    WindFish Class Warrior

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    I think its going to be someone who is a hardcore Conservative.
     
  12. kramerfan86

    kramerfan86 Deity

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    I think Rubio will be his top pick, but its impossible to know how serious Rubio's disinterest is. If its not Rubio I think he goes safe with Pawlenty. All the other options run the risk of damaging as much as they help.
     
  13. Antilogic

    Antilogic --

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    I think Condi's name was floated just to keep it in the news cycle, she has been vocal in not seeking the position and hasn't been doing campaign events for him, as far as I know.

    Rubio slipped up and implied he might be the pick, on an interview. Everything's been said about him applies, he looks like a solid choice. But when I looking at the polls, I think Romney is more competitive already in Florida and isn't so hot in the Midwest. He might pass on Rubio and take either Ryan or Portman. Ryan might put Wisconsin into play (I think it's a lean Obama, despite what the major news outlets say), but it would be safer to try and get Ohio in the bag.

    Pawlenty has escaped my radar for the recent few weeks, so I didn't consider him high on the list. His problem is that Minnesota will probably not flip for the Republicans, although he brings a little more name recognition he's probably better vetted since he was a candidate himself.
     
  14. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    If the Republicans think that Romney will lose, the best choices may refuse to be a part of it. If they truly believe he will win, he'll have a better selection.
     
  15. Antilogic

    Antilogic --

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    I can't tell what they think. I think Nate Silver's analysis, which gives Obama roughly 2:1 odds, is pretty close to an accurate picture of the race. I'd have to think at least some of the Republican leadership considers a Romney loss seriously.

    There will be the Romney VP pick, the debates, and seeing how the economy looks in October. Barring any other major catastrophe, that's what will influence voters. Based on their prior speeches, I think the debates will favor Obama or end up a wash. So, any calculation probably involves the likelihood nothing changes in the economy, and whether the VP can sway swing states.
     
  16. AlpsStranger

    AlpsStranger Jump jump on the tiger!

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    Most of the street-level Republicans ( and Hillarite surrender monkeys ;) ) seems completely convinced that Obama simply will be defeated. It's almost a religious belief at this point. I don't think they believe the sun will come up if Obama is reelected.

    So, how high up does that go? Who knows.

    Back on earth, though, I'd say 2:1 is about dead on from what we've seen so far. FWIW, I think Romney would be a slight favorite if the ACA had been struck down.
     
  17. Cheezy the Wiz

    Cheezy the Wiz Socialist In A Hurry

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    Sweet Jesus God, this is a scarier thought than him as VP. :eek:
     
  18. AlpsStranger

    AlpsStranger Jump jump on the tiger!

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    :rolleyes:
     
  19. Dreadnought

    Dreadnought Deity

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    Ryan polls highly in swing states, actually. However, he polls considerably less favorably in non-swing states.

    Portman is highly influential in Ohio; that may be the first time since 1960 that a VP candidate can bring about a win in a state.
     
  20. Azale

    Azale Deity

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    What exactly does "highly influential" mean?

    Ohio has an approximately 30% chance of deciding the election according to Nate Silver. If Portman wants the job and has a good chance of swinging Ohio to Romney, I think he's the obvious choice.
     

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