Who will win in 2012? Post-Ryan edition.

Dreadnought said:
If Romney wins, the odds of him winning more than 280 electoral votes is pretty darn high. Now, I'm not talking 300+, but my number of 285 is accurate considering polling/strategy/swing states.
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Well, that's true. But Romney is still a steal at 40% for people who are sure he's going to win.

As for me, I do have two excuses.

1) I don't have enough free money to bet.

2) I'm actually not all that certain Obama is going to win.

Sorry if I unfairly attacked you Dread. I just keep hearing about these Reaganesque landslides and Intrade has become my go-to response. 280 is certainly not a massive landslide, so I apologize.
 
AlpsStranger said:
Well, that's true. But Romney is still a steal at 40% for people who are sure he's going to win.

As for me, I do have two excuses.

1) I don't have enough free money to bet.

2) I'm actually not all that certain Obama is going to win.

Sorry if I unfairly attacked you Dread. I just keep hearing about these Reaganesque landslides and Intrade has become my go-to response. 280 is certainly not a massive landslide, so I apologize.
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Oh, don't worry about it at all. You're among the more polite on this forum. No hard feelings.

Now, of course, Intrade's 40% for Romney is probably not far from the truth. I'm willing to put 40-45% odds on Romney at this point.
 
Dreadnought said:
Oh, don't worry about it at all. You're among the more polite on this forum. No hard feelings.

Now, of course, Intrade's 40% for Romney is probably not far from the truth. I'm willing to put 40-45% odds on Romney at this point.
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Thank you for the complement, but I'm not sure I really deserve it;) ( looks over list of infractions )

I have to say that I find you agreeable most of the time as well. That's something to be glad for, I suppose :p
 
Intrade's transaction fees are pretty high. You have to have a lot of money set aside to make a small profit.

Now, as a thought experiment, let's assume that everything about the Ryan budget is true. In order to be politically successful, you would need to convince large numbers of the electorate to support something that is unquestionablly against their interests in the short and medium term. Old people on fixed incomes will have to support Medicare cuts. Farmers in Iowa will have to support cuts to farm subisidies, after one of the biggest droughts of the last 60 years. Young people will have to support cuts to pell grants, etc. All of this while the outwardly most priviledged people will be asked to make no significant sacrifice whatsoever. This is what the Ryan Budget says. Let's pretend this is a desirable policy outcome.

What has the Romney campaign shown so far that makes it seem like they are capable of this sales job? They have been completely unable to define their candidate, refusing to talk about anything other than Obama and the economy. As a result, the President has been able to overcome bad economic numbers and a crummy narative to establish Romney as a heartless corporate raider. This VP choice unquestionably feeds into that narrarative.

Just looking at their campaign, I don't think we have any data that would give us the idea that team Romney's pols can sell Ryan's negatives enought to offset the Obama War Machine, even though they're going to have more money. They can't relate to anybody.
 
All of that is certainly fair, Downtown, but I think Ryan himself is the wildcard. He's obviously got talent.
 
downtown said:
Paul Ryan wasn't able to sell the plan to the general public last time he had a chance though.
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He also didn't have nearly as solid a platform from which to proclaim it. Remember, he's backed by billionaires ( and a lot of regular people, I'm sure ) in the new SuperPAC era. He'll be able to talk directly into the brainstem of the entire country with that kind of money.

I, personally, hope the people don't buy it. At the risk of being accused of mushheaded liberal cloud thinking, I don't want us to go down the Galt's Gulch "I am an island" path.

There is a silver lining, though. If the people just don't buy what he's selling then the argument that America is longing for some kind of Objectivist utopia will have taken serious damage.
 
I just hope this is a repeat of '96 with a dullard of a candidate for the Republicans chooses a pseudo-economist wunderkind as his running mate thereby hopelessly damning both of their political careers as they fail to make any headway against a charismatic Democrat incumbent.

Romney should fall off a platform at a campaign event anytime now.
 
BvBPL said:
I just hope this is a repeat of '96 with a dullard of a candidate for the Republicans chooses a pseudo-economist wunderkind as his running mate thereby hopelessly damning both of their political careers as they fail to make any headway against a charismatic Democrat incumbent.

Romney should fall off a platform at a campaign event anytime now.
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Flip the approval rating of the president, flip the economic situation at the time, flip the enthusiasm of the base, flip the animosity held against the incumbent, and you're right!

:crazyeye:
 
downtown said:
Now, as a thought experiment, let's assume that everything about the Ryan budget is true. In order to be politically successful, you would need to convince large numbers of the electorate to support something that is unquestionablly against their interests in the short and medium term. Old people on fixed incomes will have to support Medicare cuts. Farmers in Iowa will have to support cuts to farm subisidies, after one of the biggest droughts of the last 60 years. Young people will have to support cuts to pell grants, etc. All of this while the outwardly most priviledged people will be asked to make no significant sacrifice whatsoever. This is what the Ryan Budget says. Let's pretend this is a desirable policy outcome.
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No, lets pretend debts don't matter and that we can in fact spend our way into prosperity. Lets play pretend.

You are absolutely right that the American people have the choice of being grown ups and acting and voting in the long term interest of the country as a whole or the people can continue to vote for free ponies. Free ponies have to be the favorite.

But those ponies won't last over the long haul. Someday we will again have to pull our own weight.
 
BvBPL said:
I just hope this is a repeat of '96 with a dullard of a candidate for the Republicans chooses a pseudo-economist wunderkind as his running mate thereby hopelessly damning both of their political careers as they fail to make any headway against a charismatic Democrat incumbent.

Romney should fall off a platform at a campaign event anytime now.
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Ross Perot was right you know.
 
MisterCooper said:
No, lets pretend debts don't matter and that we can in fact spend our way into prosperity. Lets play pretend.

You are absolutely right that the American people have the choice of being grown ups and acting and voting in the long term interest of the country as a whole or the people can continue to vote for free ponies. Free ponies have to be the favorite.

But those ponies won't last over the long haul. Someday we will again have to pull our own weight.
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First debt is not a easy thing to get rid of, or it just appeared. It builds up over time. The USA is the most debted nation on the planet. It is also has had deregulations since Reagan...

But... what is the bloody heck are you keep going on about ponies?! What are you on about?!
 
The Ryan pick was Rmoney putting up the white flag of surrender. Probably helps the Dems keep the Senate and make some progress in narrowing the House.
 
MisterCooper said:
No, lets pretend debts don't matter and that we can in fact spend our way into prosperity. Lets play pretend.

You are absolutely right that the American people have the choice of being grown ups and acting and voting in the long term interest of the country as a whole or the people can continue to vote for free ponies. Free ponies have to be the favorite.

But those ponies won't last over the long haul. Someday we will again have to pull our own weight.
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If you, or Paul Ryan, or any conservative for that matter, actually gave a flying frack about the deficit, there is no possible way that any of you could ever justify voting for a Republican again. The US does not have debts that the Republican party did not cause at least 90% of.
 
as far as I know Obama is leading in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. I don't see how Ryan would help Romney in those states at all, and probably hurts some for Florida.

Also, I don't think VP picks can really boost the candidates very much; Obama leads over Romney preRyan and will postRyan. Maybe a bump up or down here or there. The goal of VP pick is to just avoid choosing someone utterly terrible like Palin (Ryan may fall into this category as he won't appeal to moderates probably, but at least it's more over his issues than general stupidity).
 
Dreadnought said:
Romney wins 285 - 253. (That's counting Wisconsin in the blue! We'll have to see what happens there).

Look at it this way: overnight, Romney has become the savior of the GOP through his pick. The base now see him as a man willing to do what it takes to get the country going again.

Have you heard Ryan speak? He sounds a lot like Kennedy, with the politics of Reagan. He's a great asset to have on the VP slot.

Let's be real about one thing, though: Obama was going to (and already has) attacked Romney on the Ryan plan, even before the pick. Now, at least the GOP looks like it has a plan, unlike Obama (whose budget didn't even receive a single electoral vote).
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How can Romney win this election if he has handed FL on a plate to Obama?
 
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